- This topic has 105 replies, 46 voices, and was last updated 19 years ago by
.
- Posts
Point Barrow and Numbersixvalverde my two against the field.
Point Barrow ticks all the right boxes. Has won an Irish National and a Grade A chase in Ireland under top weight. If he takes to the fences I can’t see him being out the top 4.
And the reigning champ Numbersixvalverde only carries 11 stone 3 to retain his crown; the way he won last year he must have every chance of being in the frame.
Also interested in Silver Birch who’s proven over the fences and looks reignited by a change of scenary. Could run a big race.
If Bother Na brushed up his jumping markedly, he’d have every chance. But I won’t be taking that risk!
Quote: from Friggo on 10:54 pm on Mar. 26, 2007[br]
Quote: from Irish Stamp on 10:15 pm on Mar. 26, 2007[br]Easy for the National
1. Course form’s great<br>2. Won at 3m+<br>3. Previously beaten horses in the race seldom win<br>4. No falls, URs. BD’s etc this season
Weighted less than 11 stone
You’ll not go far wrong :)<br>
I usually take a similar ‘tick the boxes’ line. In my book, you also get a bonus point for being Irish, as they tend to get handicapped generously.
One thing I would say is that the 11st rule used to be my numeo uno criterion, but now with horses less than about 10st4 getting balloted out you can get up to 11st4 or 5 winning.
And I liked Bewley’s Berry aswell for a while, sberry, but look at how it finished in the Beecher; f****ing knackered, it still has 9f to go in the big one.<br>
I have an excellent record in the national as I imagine do many on here and i think its because basic form studiers like us usually shouldnt be too far away from the winner and it was never the lottery that some people called it. But i think that will change now because of the recent weight compressions that are giving better horses real chances to make an impact.
For this reason, is the likes of simon really getting enough weight from other classier horses if they decide to take there chance. I dont think so and will he appreciate good ground should it appear..i dont think so either. I think outstaying cornish sett and ladalko on abysmal ground shouldnt fool anyone. Perhaps he is improving and these conditons might help..i wouldnt take a chance at that price.
Anyone any idea of what of trevor hemmings horses will actually run. Is there a chance we will see our ben for example?
SHL
Glad you agree Aston, money for Point Barrow at Ladbrokes yesterday means it’s into 10’s now.
Hemmings will obviously run Hedgehunter and Idle Talk. Our Ben looks as if its been taken out judging by the latest forfeit stage.
I give Point Barrow a huge chance and will be taking some of the 12-1 before it goes. My worry about Dun Doire would be his style of racing- I much prefer a fairly prominent racer for the National- far less traffic problems and a clearer view of the fences. I could see him having a similar run to the Becher and he would be a lay for me at a single figure price on the day on anything except very soft ground.
No one think old Clan Royal could win the big one this year no Mccoy riding but Mccoy has terrible look in the national so is that a good thing? either way J T Mcnamara is a good replacement.
Quote: from carvillshill on 5:52 pm on Mar. 28, 2007[br]I give Point Barrow a huge chance and will be taking some of the 12-1 before it goes. My worry about Dun Doire would be his style of racing- I much prefer a fairly prominent racer for the National- far less traffic problems and a clearer view of the fences. I could see him having a similar run to the Becher and he would be a lay for me at a single figure price on the day on anything except very soft ground.<br>
I agree about Point Barrow, although I think you’ll have to do a bit of hunting to get 12s now.
I wouldn’t take what you say about prominent runners as gospel, however. My main concern about Point Barrow is actually how handy he runs! I think in recent years, horses that have settled in the higher end of the peloton have fared best.
But you can never predict at Aintree. If you lead, the problem of loose horses on the 2nd circuit arises, as I’m sure AP can testify due to his experiences on both Clan Royal in 2005 and Blowing Wind in ’01 as an example. (I still cry about the later; I had him at 16s, and when he was forced to refuse he looked like winning from here to Princes St, and would’ve been my first National winner!)
(Edited by Friggo at 11:19 pm on Mar. 28, 2007)
Hello,
Just been reviewing the field.
One good run that went partially unnoticed due it’s finishing position, about 6th, PHILSON, at Haydock.
3m 6f, came with a great run and seemed all over the winner until a cropper at the second last.<br>It was it’s first run for some time.
An Eider winner, it will get the trip. I don’t think it will win, but I can see it creeping thru beaten horses’ for a place. ;)
regards,
doyley
A word of warning about Philson Run – connections wanted to hunter chase him this season only to be told that he wasn’t qualified.
This suggests to me that they don’t think he’s particularly well handicapped. I would have to agree, being put up 7lbs for narrowly winning the unedifying spectacle that was the 2006 Eider was harsh in the extreme. Philson is basically a slow plodder and the only chance he would have in a Grand National would be in Red Marauder-esque conditions.
As far as my own thoughts on the race – this is certainly not a vintage renewal of the National and if there is ever going to be another year when one of the top weights wins it could well be this year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there was a bit of a shock as there are plenty of holes that can be picked in the top few in the market. In fact, this is the first year in many where I probably won’t have a serious punt on the race as it is so damn tricky.
For the life of me I can’t see why Dun Doire is favourite – he simply doesn’t look well handicapped and also fell over the fences last year. Point Barrow is around a stone higher for his narrow Irish National win and I don’t think he will stay. Eurotrek is far too inexperienced, Hedgehunter has had an interrupted prep. I’m not convinced Joe’s Edge likes the place, Idle Talk doesn’t jump well enough, L’Ami doesn’t appeal as the sort of horse that will take to the place, Clan Royal has had his chance and doesn’t fully get the trip anyway. Liberthine and Bothar Na won’t get the trip in a horsebox, this maybe a year too early for Bewleys Berry, while I don’t think Longshanks is anywhere near good enough.
It may sound crazy given that it hasn’t happened for 33 years but for me by far the most likely winner of the race is Numbersixvalverde who has been totally laid out for a repeat win and has not been handicapped out of it like so many other previous winners.
Despite John Wayne on board do like Simon, he is one of the most progressive in the field, stays well, has a touch of class and is ideally suited to flat tracks. The only worry is whether he’ll take to the fences as it’s certainly not guaranteed, given his size. In a normal year I wouldn’t think that the likes of Ossmoses would be good enough, but as stated above this could turn out to be a really weak renewal – he will be suited by conditions as long as it isn’t too quick and is another who has had his campaign mapped out around a crack at this race. Despite being only seven (no winner that age for 67 years, stats fans!) State Of Play wouldn’t be out of it if he turns up, but I get the feeling that connections are going to bottle it and go elsewhere.
My current fancies are Point Barrow and Numbersixvalverde.
However, what do people think about L’Ami? He tends to be one-paced in his races, so will this trip on good ground bring out the best in him? In light of him being a market mover yesterday, I think L’Ami is one of the most interesting horses in the field.
If he lays up with the pace Anzum L’Ami would have a decent chance but he’d really need to be in the first half dozen or so as as you say he’s one paced. There’s no way he’d be able to come from 15 or 20 lengths back in the closing stages. Think there’ll be too many good quality horses up the front end jumping the last – Numbersixvalverde, Bewleys Berry and Hedgehunter amongst others likely to be up there.
I guess he has the number one man on board! Despite Mccoy’s poor record in the race. Do you think Bewley’s Berry will be up there at the last? Can’t see it myself.
I may have missed something because i have been busy with other things lately, but why has monkerhostin drifted from 20 -1 to 33-1 in the past week?<br>the last i heard hobbs was aiming him and zabenz at the race?<br>i have strongly fancied monkerhostin for the national for a while, even more so after his 4th in the gold cup. He always seems to be staying on in his races, and gas a touch of class, winning a coral cup, a holden gold cup, and a bonusprint, and being second in the king george, paddy power, peterbough chase, as well as a 3rd in the totegold trophy. <br>I cant see him being out of the first 4 because he is a safe jumper, stays, is genuine and has class, and 11.6 is a winnable weight imo.<br>Of the others, bewleys berry wont stay, nor will libertine, lami has mccoy on board!!, past winners dont win again (very often), simon wants soft ground, Point Barrow and Dun Doire are more likely, but i think they are handicapped to their best, and not sure if they have the class to overcome it. clan royal is past it, osmosis wants some give in the ground, and philson run isnt good enough. <br>
Very valid claims for Monkerhostin Dave, especially if the ground remains good. Like you, I cannot understand why he’s drifted; Hobbs is certainly aiming him and Zabenz at the race and maybe Parsons Legacy.
thats good, i had thought that i had missed a statement saying he was unlikely to run or something, but if not, e/w at 33’s must be a good bet. <br>I did notice that he is entered in the puchestown gold cup tho
It’s certainly good value I agree. Rather back him than handicappers like Simon or Ossmoses, which are much shorter in the betting. Presume the entry for Punchestown may be precautionary in case he falls early in the National perhaps.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.