THM on the Flat 2013

[thehorsesmouth]

Only have ten minutes of life left on the laptop so I’ll have to be quick. Said I’d have a glance at Newmarket’s card due to my ante post on War Command, and I thought

Sudirman

would be favourite for the Middle Park. Great White Eagle hold this position, and I can’t argue that he looks a horse of serious potential, but Sudirman has done it in a Group 1 before and at 5/1 I have to back him!

Middle Park Stakes
Sudirman
€5 e/w @ 5/1 (Boyles)

- €166.25

[thehorsesmouth]

Time for my latest last bet of the season – I love the flat so much I just can’t let go it seems!

Dermot Weld’s Sea The Stars filly will be a warm order in the first at the Curragh, and it’s hard to argue with that given her good run behind My Titania at Leoparstown last time out. However, another filly who ran in that race,

Grandma’s Hands

, interests me more.

Andrew Oliver’s filly was held up in that race and she was staying on very nicely before her run was stopped a furlong from home. She was being niggled quite early that day over seven furlongs which suggests that today’s race over a mile will be more to her liking. She was officially seven lengths behind Weld’s Afternoon Sunlight but had she got a clear run I think it would have more likely been around four lengths.

Last time out she ran in the seven furlong Curragh maiden that Sparrow, who runs in the six furlong maiden today, was second in. Yet again things didn’t go her way. There was a lot of scrimmaging in the first couple of furlongs, with Kevin Manning almost unseated, and I think Grandma’s Hands was hindered by all this going on around her. Seven furlongs is a bit sharp for her and it was little wonder that she soon came off the bridle, looking like she’d be well beaten. She received one backhander from Chris Hayes and was hands and heels to the line and yet again she stayed on powerfully, just a couple of lengths behind third placed Dance With Another, who re-opposes today.

I think we’ve yet to see the best of this filly and over a mile today I wouldn’t be surprised if she turned over the favourite. I was talking to VTC on Facebook last night and said I’d have a fiver each way at what I expected to be around 6/1. Fact is she’s available at 12/1 with Coral I don’t have an account with them but 11/1 with Bet Victor will more than do. I’ve upped my stakes a bit too, I think she’s fantastic value.

Curragh 1.45
Grandma’s Hands
€10 e/w @ 11/1 (BV)

- €186.25

[thehorsesmouth]

I’ve joined a few others on Simenon for the Melbourne Cup. Everything seems to be well with him and if WP sends one to Australia then THM will follow

Melbourne Cup
Simenon
€10 e/w @ 20/1 (B365)

The following two bets which are also still open:

Epsom Derby 2014
Free Eagle
€10 e/w @ 25/1 (PP)

2000 Guineas 2014
War Command
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

EDIT: I’ll take these out of the p/l and make amendments if and when these three run. There’s still hope for a profitable thread yet

- €78.25

[thehorsesmouth]

Place money returned on Simenon yielding a €40 profit.

- €38.25

[thehorsesmouth]

With

Free Eagle

out of the Derby p/l stands at

Thankfully it looks as though War Command will run in the 2000 Guineas. Being the shrewdie that I am I snaffled 10/1 months and months ago He somehow gives the thread a chance of a profit.

[thehorsesmouth]

- €78.25 after War Command’s tame Guineas effort. No Flat thread this year and I plan on keeping my flat bets few and far between. I thought Fascinating Rock ran very well today despite not being best placed by Pat Smullen while I was also happy with the performance of Palace who should improve given more of a stamina test.

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