- This topic has 124 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
Have done some more study on the 2000 Guineas tonight. You can make a case for any of the outside Ballydoyle trio really, in particular George Vancouver. I do find it strange that Pat Smullen rides, as presumably one would have thought he would be on Flying The Flag. However, if you are backing GV you couldn’t be happier with the jockey booking. He got tired towards the end of the guineas and the heavy rain before the race can’t have helped. The ground should be very quick tomorrow I think and he’ll strip fitter. I think Magician is way too short. He was an average 2 year old whose only win came on heavy ground. He was impressive at Chester over 10 furlongs but I’m willing to take him tomorrow over a mile.
Irish 2000 Guineas
George Vancouver
€5 e/w 14/1 (PP)- €180
In the penultimate mile handicap I quite like Ger Lyons’ Machete Mark, who won snugly at Dundalk last time out and should be available at 5 or 6/1.
Machete Mark
is a general 5/1 shot. The horse he beat ast time out is 4/1 favourite. I concede that the runner up may have improved and is in receipt of 3 lbs, but Machete Mark beat him snugly and I think he’ll confirm his superiority.
5.00 Curragh
Machete Mark
€10 e/w @ 5/1 (WH)- €200
Elsewhere on the card, I want to get Jonibake’s thoughts on Chigun. I don’t like opposing Dermot Weld fillies and Caponata looks a typically late improving Weld horse. Chigun looks the main danger.
Stubbs is now a non runner as is Caponata. The withdrawal of the latter leaves the race at the mercy of
Chigun
. Lily’s Angel has been flat out lately, with two trips to England and two spins in Ireland already this year. There’s also the question of whether she’s good enough. Was won last year’s Oaks but that was over half a mile further and she’ll hardly be firing on all cylinders first time out. All things considered, Henry Cecil’s filly is worth an interest at 7/4.
3.55 Curragh
Chigun
€10 win @ 7/4 (PP)- €210
I think that given the right conditions (fast ground, fast pace), Sole Power is a serious animal. It’s a joy to watch him cruising at break neck speed while most of the rest are flat to the mat. However he’s a bit short today at 7/4 and surely the value lies with Clive Cox’s
Reckless Abandon
. This unbeaten 3 yo is having his first run over 5f since Royal Ascot last year, but I don’t think it will overly inconvenience him. 5/1 looks a decent e/w price for a horse with his profile and I can see him taking this before going on to bigger things later in the season.
3.50 Haydock
Reckles Abandon
€10 e/w @ 5/1 (WH)- €220
Having a look at tomorrow’s card at the Curragh now. It wouldn’t surprise if the opening 6f maiden throws up a couple of nice sorts, with a number of big yards represented by unraced juveniles. Without a shadow of a doubt the most interesting runner is Aidan O’Brien’s
Sir John Hawkwood
. Both parents are Classic winners, with his sire being dual 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator and Peeping Fawn, who was so dominant in the second half of her Classic season, the dam. If he possesses half their respective abilities he’ll be hard to beat. It will be interesting to see what price the bookies put him in at.
In the Gallinule
Leading Light
is hot favourite and is fancied to bag another winner in the race for Ballydoyle. He couldn’t have been more impressive last time out. He faces better opposition tomorrow but it’s hard not to be impressed by him. He’s 11/10 with Bet Victor now and I advise taking that as he could be quite short come off time. I fancy him strongly to continue O’Brien’s good run of form.
Dermot Weld has been all smoke and daggers about
Big Break
‘s chances in the 1000 Guineas tomorrow. Been constantly saying they want cut in the ground, yet all last year he couldn’t stop talking about how she loves fast ground. He likes to get one over on the bookies and I expect her to be well backed tomorrow. 6/1 with William Hill: I’ll have some of that.
2.45 Curragh
Leading Light
€40 win 11/10 (BV)3.55 Curragh
Big Break
€10 e/w 6/1 (WH)- €280
Without a shadow of a doubt the most interesting runner is Aidan O’Brien’s
Sir John Hawkwood
. Both parents are Classic winners, with his sire being dual 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator and Peeping Fawn, who was so dominant in the second half of her Classic season, the dam. If he possesses half their respective abilities he’ll be hard to beat.
]
I think you mean Sir John Hawkins. Sir John Hawkwood is Stoute’s horse.
Certainly one to keep an eye on with his breeding though. Only downside is some of the good ones from the yard need their first run eg Coach House
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Without a shadow of a doubt the most interesting runner is Aidan O’Brien’s
Sir John Hawkwood
. Both parents are Classic winners, with his sire being dual 2000 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator and Peeping Fawn, who was so dominant in the second half of her Classic season, the dam. If he possesses half their respective abilities he’ll be hard to beat.
]
I think you mean Sir John Hawkins. Sir John Hawkwood is Stoute’s horse.
Certainly one to keep an eye on with his breeding though. Only downside is some of the good ones from the yard need their first run eg Coach House
You are of course correct Steve
That is the problem alright, maybe the market will indicate ‘readiness’. While Henrythenavigator won his maiden in style as a two year old, before going on to Royla Ascot success, Peeping Fawn didn’t run until she was three.
Big drift on
Sir John Hawkins
and a lot of money for Intensified, but at 2/1 I’m going to have to have a small interest. Will no doubt be back on here in 10 minutes saying ‘the market told the story’
1.45 Curragh
Sir John Hawkins
€10 win @ 2/1 (PP)- €290
With it seeming increasing likely that
Magician
will take his chance in the Epsom Derby, it may be time for us Dawn Approach backers to seek some insurance. Boylesports go 8/1 non runner no bet and if he runs he’ll hardly be that price after his demolition job yesterday.
Epsom Derby
Magician
€10 e/w @ 8/1 NRNB (Boyles)- €310
Sir John Hawkins looks a really nice prospect. Considering the drift it might be reasonable to expect he’ll come on for the run too. He’s another 2 year old to add to the list!Big Break also ran a very good race, the only filly to really challenge the winner and just getting run out of the places in the finish.
Down €146 but €140 is in ante-posts so it’s not all bad.
Magician a non runner and have put the bet on
Ruler Of The World
, who I think has a big chance and is a serious danger to Dawn Approach. I’ve put my reasoning in the Epsom Derby thread.
Epsom Derby
Ruler Of The World
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Boyles NRNB)With Club Wexford and Focus On Venice entered for the race Dawn Approach won at Naas last year, I’m beginning to wonder where Saburo is.
A great day today with
St Nic
hosing up and
Ruler Of The World
winning the Derby. It was a pity to see
Dawn Approach
so keen but there’s many good days ahead for him yet. He’ll be back. Had a quick look at the Leger market and
Libertarian
jumps off the page at 8/1. I’d say it won’t last long!
St Leger (14th October)
Libertarian
€10 win 8/1 (Ladbrokes)With both the English and French Derbies taking place this weekend, the Arc picture develops quite a bit. I didn’t see anything at Epsom today that screamed ‘Arc’ (although an in form St Nic would surely go close on good ground), and tomorrow’s race at Longchamps will hopefully throw up a good horse. I’ve had
Intello
in the back of my mind as my Arc horse this year after his French 2000 Guineas run where he stayed on in eye catching fashion. A quick look at the Arc market shows that it’s a race crying out for something to stamp its authority. Although backing Ruler Of The World for today, I find the fact that he’s as short as 11/2 for the Arc as ludicrous. Intello’s price of 9/4 for tomorrow’s race doesn’t appeal to me and I rather put the money on him at 16/1 for the Arc. If he wins tomorrow that’ll vanish and if he’s beat then the bet is more than likely down the drain, which would be the case backing him for tomorrow anyway!
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
Intello
€10 e/w 16/1 (BV)+ €59
Magician a non runner and have put the bet on
Ruler Of The World
, who I think has a big chance and is a serious danger to Dawn Approach. I’ve put my reasoning in the Epsom Derby thread.
Epsom Derby
Ruler Of The World
€10 e/w @ 10/1 (Boyles NRNB)Well played Tommy,I could never understand why this ‘Battle of Marengo’ was the ‘talkin’ horse,he’s never bred to be a 11/2m horse!
Thanks Gord, Battle Of Marengo ran well but ran out of puff towards the end, which I didn’t expect! I think the winner will need to keep progressing to compete in the all age Group 1’s but it’s possible. Libretarian the one to take out of it with a view to the Leger
This is what I wrote on Facebook on the 25th of May:
"There were a few horses to take out of today’s racing for future reference. The first is Club Wexford, who ran a very good race dropped back in trip over 5 furlongs behind Coach House. He definitely needs further and he looked like he’d learned a lot from his initial defeat. Stepped up in trip he could be quite useful. Michale Halford’s filly, Glassatura, looked a nice prospect when winning the 2 yo maiden. She could be Royal Ascot bound."
————————————————————
Both Club Wexford and Glassatura run today at Naas and both at generous prices in my opinion.Club Wexford
has the impressive maiden winner Stubbs to contend with but at 3/1 it’s worth betting he’ll turn him over. It’s strange to me that Bolger is persisting with him in black type races when a maiden is surely his for the taking. He must hold him in high regard but I’d like to see him get his head in front soon or he could go the way of Glór Na Mara.
Glassatura
is 6/1 in her race and although there’s a number of potentially good prospects in the race, she should be a lot shorter in my view. Her maiden win came as a shock 33/1 winner at the Curragh but it was obvious post race that Mick Halford et al hold her in high regard. They’re not known to be a gambling stable and rarely have first time out winners so she is expected to come on from that and if that’s the case she’ll take beating.
4.05 Naas
Club Wexford
€20 win @ 3/1 (PP)4.35 Naas
Glassatura
€10 e/w 6/1 (PP)+ €19
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.