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THM on the Flat 2013

Home Forums Betting Chat – Bets & Tips THM on the Flat 2013

Viewing 17 posts - 103 through 119 (of 125 total)
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  • #447493
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 34748

    http://i42.tinypic.com/23h3d4o.jpg

    I cant read all your post Tommy but am guessing you have backed Sky Lantern? Hughes is very bullish about the trip. I’ve lost all track of going it’s changed so much but She would want it on the good to quick side.

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #447498
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Thanks for changing the picture Nathan :) Don’t know why you can’t see all my post, wonder why that is? :|

    Yes I’ve backed Sky Lantern, thought she’d be shorter than she is to be honest. The fact that Hughes is so confident about the trip was definitely a factor in me placing my bet. I’ve had a score on at 9/4. Are you backing her yourself?

    How did you change the photo by the way?! :idea:

    #447503
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34748

    No bet for me today Tommy as I wasn’t sure what the ground is doing but will be cheering her on. For the photo’s try

    tinypic

    you will need to change the default resize to website/email 320/280 follow instructions then copy and paste from the IMG code forums. to get it on your post all you have to do then is press CTRL and v at the same time and you end up with something like this.

    http://i44.tinypic.com/zk1ueu.jpg

    good luck……. :lol:

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #447529
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Just Pretending looks big at 20/1 :shock:

    #447530
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    For the 2nd race running, Richard Hughes on Sky Lantern has been well out ridden by William Buick.

    #447533
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 34748

    Hughes has been class all week but that was a bad decision to go back inside when he had already found daylight, whether the horse would of won or not I’m not sure.

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #447535
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    Hughes has been class all week but that was a bad decision to go back inside when he had already found daylight, whether the horse would of won or not I’m not sure.

    I can’t disagree with that Nathan. What annoys me is that he had all the room in the world on the outside but waited and waited until Winsili had moved up on his outside. It was painful to watch as you could see it happening long before it did, pity he didn’t have wing mirrors on her and he might have realised himself.

    Channel 4 will criticize Seamie Heffernan though, which I agree with; both men made bad decisions but Seamie was stupid and Hughes was unlucky! :?

    #448004
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    I have learned in recent days that

    Saburo

    (my avatar) is no longer with us. :( On the only run of his life he showed the smart Stubbs a clean pair of heels and there is no doubt in my mind which horse had the most room for improvement. A big loss to connections. RIP

    #448481
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    I was blown away by

    Free Eagle

    at Leopardstown this evening. It looked a hot maiden and he left some promising animals toiling in his wake when Pat Smullen asked him to quicken. He reminds me of Casual Conquest in that he looks like a big slow maturing type rather than an out and out two year old, which if correct means he could be anything. I let a few choice words when I missed Bet 365’s 20/1 for the Derby but Mr. Power must have heard me and he went 25/1.

    Epsom Derby 2014
    Free Eagle
    €10 e/w @ 25/1 (PP)

    - €131.25

    #448721
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    I didn’t think I’d be backing many more on the flat this season, but

    Step To Freedom

    can’t be ignored in the last at Dundalk. The in form Connor King takes 5 lbs off his back, meaning he runs off 98. He won a handicap at the track in fine style off 103 a little over a year ago over two miles. He has also won over today’s trip of 1m 2.5f at the track earlier this year so the trip should not be an issue. Jessica Harrington’s string are in fine fettle and I’ll be surprised and disappointed if he’s not in the shake up.

    Dundalk 5.45
    Steps To Freedom
    €10 e/w @ 6/1 (Boyles)

    - €151.25

    #449017
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    I didn’t think I’d be backing many more on the flat this season, but

    Step To Freedom

    can’t be ignored in the last at Dundalk. The in form Connor King takes 5 lbs off his back, meaning he runs off 98. He won a handicap at the track in fine style off 103 a little over a year ago over two miles. He has also won over today’s trip of 1m 2.5f at the track earlier this year so the trip should not be an issue. Jessica Harrington’s string are in fine fettle and I’ll be surprised and disappointed if he’s not in the shake up.

    Dundalk 5.45
    Steps To Freedom
    €10 e/w @ 6/1 (Boyles)

    I see

    Steps To Freedom

    is an intended runner in the Ebor. He’s available at 25/1 which is tempting but I don’t think he’s got enough in hand to win a race like this and I fancy

    Opinion

    quite strongly at any rate. Steps To Freedom was 2nd for me last week, coming from a long way back and enduring a troubled run (even Connor King can get it wrong it seems :lol: ), returning €25.

    I think

    Toronado

    will have too much speed for the field in the Juddmonte International today. I like both Irish horses but Declaration Of War has been in every fight this season, while also looking held on form with the two market principles. Trading Leather will like the ground but Jim Bolger’s horses have been a bit hit and miss in recent weeks and he was well and truly swatted aside by Novellist in the King George. I don’t think Novellist is a far superior horse to the likes of Toronado and therefore I think Trading Leather will once again find one too good.

    Al Kazeem has been excellent this season but I find his participation strange given that Roger Charlton stated after the Eclipse that he wouldn’t run over 10 furlongs on Good to firm ground again. I think he’s vulnerable to speedier animals today and it wouldn’t surprise me if Toronado puts daylight between he and his rivals, with Al Kazeem and Trading Leather battling it out for 2nd. Declaration Of War not far away in 4th.

    There you have it.

    Juddmonte International
    Toronado 7/4 (WH)

    Ebor
    Opinion 7/1 (WH)

    €10 e/w double

    - €146.25

    #449267
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    The Nunthorpe is today’s big race and one I’ve backed both ‘Powers’ at one stage or another this season.

    Sole Power

    has been there and got the t-shirt: his class is undoubted but he needs everything to fall right for him and imo he’s at his best on quick ground, where he can use his finishing burst to best effect. The return to 5 furlongs should suit him.

    Slade Power

    is the younger of the pair, not quite at Sole Power’s level of form yet but I think he has the potential to be even better than him in due course. I think he’ll be a leading contender in all the big sprints next season, but that’s not to say he won’t be competitive today. His latest run represented another step up in form, when he won decisively at the Curragh. I think he’s better over 6 furlongs but the softened ground could help bring his stamina into play and if he can travel well in the first half of the race he should be finishing strongly.

    York 3.40
    Slade Power
    €10 e/w @ 8/1 (PP)

    - €166.25

    #450472
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    POP :!: :(

    #450477
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
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    • Total Posts 8697

    POP :!: :(

    That was a visually impressive performance from

    Australia

    there Tommy,we’ll wait for a de-brief.

    #450483
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    I think Trading Leather could do a Cape Blanco here, 11/2 is big!

    #450745
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    I’ve had a look at the

    Free Eagle

    race a few times now and have had time to reflect. First impressions were that he was stuffed by a far superior animal and didn’t improve from his debut.

    My thoughts on the race are now somewhat different. It was a funny sort of a race with four runners, what looked a slow pace and softening ground. Free Eagle traveled like the best horse in the race, better than

    Australia

    who was niggled along when Pat Smullen looked to be sitting pretty (I really liked the way Australia responded to pressure by the way). When Australia got upsides Free Eagle, Smullen shook the reins an there was no response, while Australia powered clear to a comfortable success.

    Smullen didn’t wave his whip once at Free Eagle, never taking his hands off the reins and allowing the horse an easy time in second. Perhaps the horse wasn’t right or was very weak? The latter is likely imo, as I’ve been talking to someone who was at the track who said he looked quite weak in the paddock, particularly compared to Australia. Is it possible his maiden romp took more out of him than Dermot Weld had thought?

    A reason

    Kingfisher

    may have closed the gap on Free Eagle is the ground. It was on the soft side of good, perhaps too soft for

    Wexford Town

    , who is a full brother to the fast ground-loving Trading Leather, and Free Eagle, a son of High Chaparral. The two Galileo’s would have been the likeliest to handle the rain-softened ground, that much is very likely.

    I’m not going to throw away my Derby docket on Free Eagle just yet. In my opinion it is likely that he ran well below what he is capable off due to a combination of physical weakness and ground softer than ideal. Hopefully he’ll be put way for next year now and be readied for another crack at Australia, the best horse Aidan O’Brien has ever trained, in the Derrinstown :twisted:

    That’s it for me betting-wise on the flat this season, bar an ante-post on Intello in the Arc, and Libertarian in the Leger. I still plan on bit of discussion though :)

    #453892
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5577

    With both the English and French Derbies taking place this weekend, the Arc picture develops quite a bit. I didn’t see anything at Epsom today that screamed ‘Arc’ (although an in form St Nic would surely go close on good ground), and tomorrow’s race at Longchamps will hopefully throw up a good horse. I’ve had

    Intello

    in the back of my mind as my Arc horse this year after his French 2000 Guineas run where he stayed on in eye catching fashion. A quick look at the Arc market shows that it’s a race crying out for something to stamp its authority. Although backing Ruler Of The World for today, I find the fact that he’s as short as 11/2 for the Arc as ludicrous. Intello’s price of 9/4 for tomorrow’s race doesn’t appeal to me and I rather put the money on him at 16/1 for the Arc. If he wins tomorrow that’ll vanish and if he’s beat then the bet is more than likely down the drain, which would be the case backing him for tomorrow anyway!

    Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
    Intello
    €10 e/w 16/1 (BV)

    Delighted with Intello’s run, no shame in going down to a superstar filly and a top class older horse in Orfevre.

    + €50


    ________________________________________________________________

    Having seen

    Cirrus Des Aigles

    bounce back to form yesterday I think the 4/1 with Boyles for the Champion Stakes should be snaffled. Many of those near the head of the market are far from certain to run, but we are sure this is Cirrus’ target. I think he’s an each way bet to nothing at that price, so I’m going to go back on my word and have another bet on the flat.

    Champion Stakes
    Cirrus Des Aigles
    €20 e/w @ 4/1 (Boyles)

    EDIT: Price has been clipped to 7/2 in the last few minutes I think, must be because Ginger has lumped on :) I still think he’s a bet at that price, but I can post a screenshot of my own bet (which was placed just before 2 pm today) if you don’t believe me :lol:

Viewing 17 posts - 103 through 119 (of 125 total)
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