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3.40 Newbury
Go For One 142<br>The Luder 139<br>Sha Bihan 132<br>Turnberry Bay 132<br>New Entric 131
Had a close look at the AW races we rated and there may be a bit of a pattern, so, just for interest –
2.40 Wolverhampton
Little Jimbob 111+<br>Pop Music 111+<br>Samarinda 111<br>Our Kes 110<br>Symbol Of Peace 105<br>Pab Special 105<br>Armanda 104<br>Semi Detached 104<br>Suits Me 102<br>Trifti 98<br>Aperitif 85++
3.40 Newbury
Ratings<br>12 New Entic 9/4 30pts SP 8/1 WON return 270pts<br>11 Sha Bihan 11/4 26pts SP 11/4 2nd bet lost<br>9  The Luder 4/1 20pts SP 5/2 no bet<br>8  Go For One 5/1 16pts SP 3/1 no bet<br>4  Turnberry Bay (28/1 not considered)
Result – return 270pts – 56pts staked = +214
I see I am out of step today – again lol! At least it increases my confidence that dutching the viable odds is a powerful betting strategy. I have actually posted it up on the Van der Wheil thread where The Luder is the selection.
Class in handicaps?
I’ve just had a thought (which is original for me these days) does anyone perceive class like this?
Handicaps are rated e.g., this one is 0-125, however the handicapper sees it as top-of-the-shop as The Luder is rated 125. If you adjust each runners weight to that of The Luder and add it on to their rating you will find they all come to 125 (penalties excluded). Eureka! It’s class 125.<br>Checking past winning achievements their best to date is:<br>The Luder 119 (hdl)<br>New Entic 115 (hdl)<br>Go For One 110 (chs)<br>Sha Bihan 108 (chs)<br>Turnberry Bay 0
I see this as a difficult race lol.<br>
(Edited by Formath at 5:09 pm on Mar. 2, 2007)
For what it’s worth, here’s my ratings for the Wolverhampton 2:40 race:
Our Kes …………….15<br>Pop Music ………….15<br>Symbol Of Peace ….14<br>Trifti ………………….9<br>Aperitif ……………….4<br>Armada ………………3<br>Pab Special ………….3<br>Little Jimbob …………2<br>Samarinda …………..1<br>Suits Me ……………..1<br>Semi Detached ……..1
Well done Formath for getting that right. The rest of us didn’t even have it 2nd top-rated :o . Must have been some race with 3 of the 5 matched at odds on and The Luder also matched at 2/1 on BF.
Van Der Wheil method
name,form,ts,rpr,fcp,class,=score
Pop Music       10  9  10  10  0   =39<br>Symbol Of Peace   9   10  7   10  0   =36<br>Pab Special      7   0  9   10  7   =33<br>Trifti           6   7   8  10  0   =31<br>Little Jimbob      6   7   0   10  8   =31<br>Samarinda       9   0   0   10  7   =26<br>Aperitif         0   9   0   0   10  =19<br>Armada          0   0   6   0   9   =15<br>Semi Detached     0    0   6  0   0    =6<br>Suits Me        0    0   0  0   0    =0
(Edited by carlisle at 8:25 pm on Mar. 2, 2007)<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 9:40 pm on Mar. 2, 2007)
Pro-Punter  Analysis using TS & RPR.<br>===========================
Trifti               134   11/2<br>Aperitif             129   15/2<br>Pop Music           127   8/1<br>Symbol Of Peace       125   9/1<br>Pab Special          124   9/1<br>Little Jimbob          124   9/1<br>Armada             124   9/1<br>———————————–<br>Samarinda           120   11/1<br>Semi Detached         118   11/1<br>Suits Me             114   13/1
Carlisle – sorry if this is a silly question but what is the line for at the bottom of your list? Also does your system only work with TS & RPR or can you use other ratings, if so I can send over Raceform ratings and see if there is a difference.
Anyone got some straw?
Hi all
interestingly I have spotted a pattern, but I doubt it will continue…………..
The winner has not been in the top 4 or bottom 3 of the Van der Wheil method.  Either has it been in the top 4 of the Pro-Punter analysis.
This would have left the following qualifiers…….
Race 1<br>====<br>Blyth Spirit     12/1     Won<br>Blakeshall Q.   12/1
Race 2<br>====<br>Dapple Dawn    4/1<br>Lopinot       11/4      Won
Race 3<br>====<br>Samarinda     12/1     Won<br>Little Jimbob    20/1
Also the winners received no VDW points for ts or rpr.<br>The winners must have had something extra going for them that was not immediately apparent.
byefrom<br>carlisle<br>
Hi Pompete
the line within the Pro-Punter analysis indictates that it considers anything below this to have little chance even at value for money odds.
From my experience I think RFRs and RPRs are the same thing. Compare them you might see what I mean.
In these low class races a dose of reverse logical seems to be paying dividends.  This all stems from the fragility of the conventional form.
byeform<br>carlisle<br>
Im very impressed with the views and ideas coming out here, very interesting ..
Tomorrows race .. 3.15 Newbury<br>##############################<br> 1 512211 Nozic (FR) Distance winner P F Nicholls 6 11 12 R Walsh<br>2 641153 Madison Du Berlais (FR) Course winner Distance winner D Pipe 6 11 5 T Scudamore<br>3 05061-9 Supreme Prince (IRE) Course and Dist winner P J Hobbs 10 11 4 R Johnson<br>4 FF0-205 Fundamentalist (IRE) Distance winner N A Twiston-Davies 9 11 3 Tony Evans<br>5 6-41282 Kalca Mome (FR) P J Hobbs 9 11 2 A Thornton<br>6 11UU-3P Bold Bishop (IRE) Course and Dist winner Jonjo O’Neill 10 11 0 W Hutchinson<br>7 0-F1411 Marcel (FR) Course winner Distance winner D Pipe 7 10 10 T J Murphy<br>8 74P6-33 It Takes Time (IRE) Distance winner D Pipe 13 10 9 T J Malone (3)<br>9 212112 Flying Enterprise (IRE) Beaten Favourite Miss V Williams 7 10 7 S Thomas<br>10 193-28P No Full (FR) Distance winner Beaten Favourite P R Webber 6 10 4 M A Fitzgerald<br>11 5-05627 Kelrev (FR) Miss V Williams 9 10 4 P C O’Neill (3)<br>12 225616 Ichi Beau (IRE) Distance winner Dr P Pritchard 13 10 0 <br>####################################
:cool: :biggrin:
Supreme Prince …….17 … 15.74%<br>Nozic ………………..16 … 14.81%<br>Marcel ……………….13 … 12.04%<br>It Takes Time ………13 … 12.04%<br>Flying Enterprise ……12 … 11.11%<br>Kalca Mome ………..11 … 10.19%<br>Madison Du Berlais ….9 … 8.33%<br>Bold Bishop …………7 … 6.48%<br>Fundamentalist ……..4 … 3.70%<br>No Full ………………4 … 3.70%<br>Kelrev ……………….2 … 1.85%
Best of luck everybody.
Ichi Beau is already a NR so I have not rated it at all – it wouldn’t have rated too highly anyway!<br>
(Edited by davidbrady at 10:51 pm on Mar. 2, 2007)
If everyone posts the %age chance of each horse I should be able to put these into excel and create an overall price.
My thoughts for today .. well done Formath, your a leading light, at the minute. Certainly giving me a bit of a jolt !! I dont look at the class of a race the way you do though .. I reckon you just have to look at the prize money on offer. Official handicapping is not very efficient in my view and I tend to ignore it. Higher weighted horses to win more races than lower weighted ones but this seems to be factored into the price somewhat.
Carlisle, there is a site on the internet somewhere that gives the VDW class rating as a part of their service, one of those £60 a month Access based programs. I dont know if its worth the money because I’ve never subscribed.
Anyway, we are currently using ratings to back more than one horse in a race .. but there are other ways to price up races and generate a price which are just as good, particularly when you are creating a price from a rating in pounds .. anybody ?
My prices for tomorrow ..
FLYING ENTERPRISE .. 27.72% .. 3.61 (5/2)<br>MARCEL .. 13.79% .. 7.25 (6/1)<br>KELREV ..14.29% .. 7.00 (6/1)<br>NOZIC .. 10.61% .. 9.42 (8/1)<br>NO FULL .. 9.84% .. 10.17 (9/1)<br>KALCA MOME .. 8.89% .. 11.25 (10/1)<br>MADISON DU BERLAIS .. 8.67% .. 11.54 (12/1)<br>SUPREME PRINCE .. 2.61% .. 38.25 (40/1)<br>IT TAKES TIME .. 1.10% .. 90.51 (100/1)<br>BOLD BISHOP .. 1.29% .. 77.42 (100/1)<br>ICHI BEAU .. 0.65% .. 153.00 (200/1)<br>FUNDAMENTALIST .. 0.54% .. 183.60 (250/1)
Bests placed as per Formath .. rounded to the nearest full percentage.
Good luck all !
Thanks Carlisle – I’ll try and compare whether there is any sufficient difference between Raceform & RPR, but I suspect your right.
With reference to the pattern I mention that I may have stumbled across the top three rated for the Aw races were as follows:
Vlast Weimer 133<br>Blythe Spirit 125  1st<br>Shava 110  2nd ÂÂÂ
Wheelavit 112<br>Lopinet 108  1st<br>Kabeer 104
Little Jimbob 111<br>Pop Music 111<br>Samanrinda 111  1st
The ratings were derived from Raceform median times and G/a. The person who complied the times and G/a, Dave Bellingham, built his reputation by compling speed ratings on the Aw. The approach in using median times as oppossed to standard times has come in for a degree of criticism but in my experiance, using then for Hurdlers, they do seem to work.
The difference between the ratings in the first two races which were submitted to these pages and the above, is the original were not adjusted for weight, standard practise for the Beyer, Mordin, Bellingham approach to speed ratings.
However, as can be seen by adjusting for weight carried and weight to be carried the winner of each race came from the top three rated (which is good enough for me). Obviously this is very earlier days and these are the the only Flat races I’ve rated since Dancing Brave won the Arc! and came about after much commotion, sweating and swearing under breath, in the Pompete household as I tried to find, and in doing so excuse anybody in earshot of moving them, my collection of Raceform returns.
So, what I would like to do is spend the next few days putting together a database of the last years returns after which I should be able to do a proper study over the course of a month. I shall of course when the database is complete contiune with our combined efforts.
Is that O.k?<br>
Hi Pompete
if you need any comma,separated,data let me know.
cheers from<br>carlisle
ps no AW racing on Saturday, blimey.
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