The Ratings Thread

[davidbrady]

My ratings are heavily weighted towards LTO class of race form. Because I mainly concentrate on cl2 Hcps and higher, I will have to modify my system to account for form in lower class races. Anyway here’s my ratings for the race.

Dapple Dawn …… 11<br>Samuel Charles … 10<br>Kabeer ……………. 7<br>Arctic Desert ……. 7<br>Lopinot …………… 7<br>Certifiable ……….. 7<br>Ivory Lace ……….. 5<br>Littleton Telchar … 4<br>Wheelavit ………… 2

[dave jay]

Did everyone who wanted a copy of Formath’s rating to price calculator get one ? PM me again if it hasnt arrived and check you sent me the correct email address.

[carlisle]

Pro-Punter  Analysis using TS & RPR.<br>===========================<br> <br>Kabeer                142   11/4<br>Ivory Lace           136   11/2<br>Littleton Telchar   134   13/2<br>Samuel Charles     128    9/1<br>Arctic Desert        128    9/1<br>Certifiable            124   11/1<br>—————————–<br>Dapple Dawn        119   13/1<br>Wheelavit            117   14/1<br>Lopinot               117   14/1

[Pompete]

4.00 Lingfield

Kabeer                109<br>Samuel Charles   109<br>Littleton Telchair  107<br>Dapple Dawn      Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ 107<br>Arctic Desert        106<br>Ivory Lace            105<br>Lopinot                105<br>Wheelavit            103<br>Certifiable            N/A*

* rated at 79 –  First run for over a season and paddock comment – Bit backward. No other form available to me.

[Formath]

4.00 Lingfield<br>Rating<br>12 Dapple Dawn? 4/1 20pts SP 4/1 bet lost<br>11 Samuel Charles 9/2 18pts SP 8/1 bet lost<br>10 Kabeer 11/2 15pts SP 3/1 no bet<br>9 Lopinop 13/2 13pts SP 11/4 WON bet lost<br>8 Ivory Lace?* 8/1 11pts SP 9/1 bet lost<br>7 Arctic Desert 10/1 9pts SP 12/1 bet lost<br>6 Certifiable?<br>5 Littleton Telchar<br>4 Wheelavit

Result -71pts<br>*? by those perceived to have a poor draw

Just for interest I filtered the field through the conditions of the race for speed on the Pattern Form site and the 2 it came up with were:

Kabeer<br>Arctic Desert<br>

(Edited by Formath at 5:53 pm on Mar. 1, 2007)

[Have fun]

just managed to finish these<br>4.00 Lingfield<br>Arctic desert  76<br>Samuel charles  70<br>Dapple dawn  68<br>Ivory lace  67<br>Kabeer  67<br>Littlejohn telchar  59<br>Lopinot  59<br>Wheelavit  51<br>Certifiable  41

thats mine

have fun<br>

[dave jay]

What a load of duffers we are .. :biggrin:

[carlisle]

Hi dave

lets do Five races and then analysis the results. I would not expect good predictions from rating poor races.  Pro-Punter rarely advises a bet in these contests.

We should be able to develop a hybrid system if our incompetence can be maintained.  Being a bunch of tossers might pay off.

Do the winning horses have anything in common, too early to say yet.  Both horses certainly won decisively!

I will do the Van Der Wheil ratings later. Does anyone have some software for this method? If not I am thinking about writing some.

byefrom<br>carlisle

(Edited by carlisle at 5:38 am on Mar. 2, 2007)

[Have fun]

Dave don’t know about duffers theres no way i’d have backed Lopinot at that price anyway going by the price some one knew it was going in don’t know if there were any gallop reports for it though

[carlisle]

Van Der Wheil method

name,form,ts,rpr,fcp,class,=score

Samuel Charles    7   7     9    10    6      =39<br>Kabeer               0   9     8    10   10      =37<br>Arctic Desert       6   6     7    10    8      =37<br>Ivory Lace          8   10   10    0     7      =35<br>Dapple Dawn      10   9     0    10    0      =29<br>Lopinot              9    0     0      10   0      =19<br>Littleton Tel        0    0     0      0    9      =9<br>Wheelavit           0    0     7      0    0      =7<br>Certifiable           0    6     0      0    0      =6

[dave jay]

Right Okay .. the best race of the day from now on then, defined by prize money.

3.40 Newbury<br>*****************************************<br> 1  317-1U2   The Luder (IRE) Distance winner   P F Nicholls  6  11 12   R Walsh<br>2 P51132 Go For One (IRE) D J Wintle 8 11 2 W Marston<br>3 8P-2815 Sha Bihan (FR) Distance winner Beaten Favourite A King 6 11 2 R Thornton<br>4 5523P4 New Entic (FR) G L Moore 6 11 2 J E Moore<br>5 42-274 Turnberry Bay (FR) Beaten Favourite D Pipe 6 10 8 T Scudamore<br>*******************************************

Now this should be easy !!

[Have fun]

All<br>OLBG site has a 1000 pound Cheltenham tipster competition could we use our ratings to have a go at that they also have teams for tipping also could we go on as trforum any ideas

have fun

[dave jay]

I think we will need to get a bit more experience first have fun .. we dont even get the same horses, or have devised a cunning plan to combine our rating methods.

As an aside, if anyone want a free dutching calculator there is one here

[Have fun]

Right lets see if this works<br>3.40 Newbury<br>The luder  76<br>Sha bihan  69<br>New entic  60<br>Turnberry bay  44<br>Go for one  42

thats my bit

[dave jay]

Mine ..

3.40 Newbury<br>Sha Bihan .. 8<br>The Luder .. 6<br>Go for one .. 5 <br>New Entic  .. 2<br>Turnberry Bay .. 1

[davidbrady]

Here we go:

Go For One ……. 14<br>The Luder …….. 13<br>Sha Bihan ………. 9<br>Turnberry Bay …. 5<br>New Entic ………. 5

[Pompete]

Re: The Dutching Calculator if anyone wants a spreadsheet for use on the exchanges, shows net profit after commission pm email and I’ll send it over.

Dave – what about producing a graph with our ratings :biggrin: <br>

(Edited by Pompete at 1:18 pm on Mar. 2, 2007)

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