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dave jay
I’m probably influenced from what I’ve read to place more emphasis on class than on any other specific factor when analsying a race or a horse’s lifetime form. I believe even if a horse is suited to the course, distance, going, etc, unless they have the class to win that race, then they won’t win.
eg – if you put Well Chief in a cl2 race over 3m, I would back him every time, even against a multiple CD winner.
It’s not that I ignore other factors – it’s more that I place more weight on ability than anything else. When I’m rating Hcps, the winner of a cl1 Hcp gets 15 points while CD gets 5 pts on my ratings/system.
Hello Alan C – you must have had the old chalk slate and abacus working overtime today (lol), but many thanks for your comments.
David B – I’ve just put the details of Alan’s race on a spreadsheet. If you would like a copy I’ll ping one over to you.
These posts are absolutely fascinating.
You guys and your spreadsheets – I can read them, but never could write one!
Formath, you are a font of knowledge – great stuff.
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:
After yesterdays almost blow out at Kempton, here’s todays top rated for Wolves ..
Symbol Of Peace(IRE) .. 14:00 Wolverhampton<br>Musical Locket(IRE) .. 14:30 Wolverhampton<br>Trinculo(IRE) .. 15:00 Wolverhampton<br>Ainama(IRE) ..15:30 Wolverhampton<br>Top Jaro(FR) .. 16:00 Wolverhampton<br>Sir Sandicliffe(IRE) .. 16:30 Wolverhampton<br>FREDA`S CHOICE(IRE) .. 17:00 Wolverhampton<br>Claws .. 17:30 Wolverhampton
W: 1<br>R: 8<br>LSP: -6.5
Good Luck !
Hi all
Formath thanks for your advice and interesting comments. However I am sure long term consistent profits cannot be acheived by simply manipulating RPR.
From my experience a strict convertion of ratings to odds is wrong. It tends to underestimate the top and overestimate the bottom.
Peter May addressed this problem in his book "Forecasting methods for horseracing".  His solution was to use a Logistic curve equation. This is available, I think, as an Excel function.
byefrom<br>carlisle
Having taken on board the advice & help we received yesterday – thanks Alan and Dave. I’ve had a look round for a bit of vaule today (based on my figures). So, here goes.
3.50 Plumpton
                 RP   Exchange*  My odds <br>Rude Health        14/1     27/2      17/2
* at 10.25am
and we shall see what happens. :)
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I do enjoy threads like this when I get a chance I will put up a couple from the weekend just to see if it differs much from everyone else who does ratings have not seen results for weekend as yet not worth me cheating but just not had time for anything at the moment, that’s if its ok with you all ?
have fun
I don’t normally bother with a race of this standard but, for what it’s worth, I have rated the 3:50 at PLU and come up with the following ratings and tissue using 80% book (I have adjusted the actual 2 decimal figure prices to a more usable figure):
Up At Midnight … 5 … 17/2<br>Gaelic Gift ……… 2 … 29/1<br>Carly Bay ………. 1 … 50/1<br>Blueland ………… 7 … 13/2<br>Ruling Reef …….. 7 … 6/1<br>Sister Grace …… 1 … 35/1<br>Cusp ……………. 8 … 5/1<br>South Sands ….. 2 … 25/1<br>Lunar Eclipse ….. 2 … 20/1 <br>Rude Health …… 4 … 13/1<br>Romney Marsh … 1 … 50/1
Using these figures, the 2 horses worthy of backing would be Cusp (frcst of 7/1 compared to 5/1 tissue) & Blueland (Frcst of 16/1 compared to tissue of 13/2).
Rude Health also has a positive Frcst vs Tissue figure (14/1 vs 13/1) but I would be relucant to back a horse with such a small rating (4) compared to the top rated (8), even if it should run better than expected.
PS – I’m not backing these cos I don’t really bet in races below cl2 at worst.
Had the old slate and chalk out again today to price up the 3.50 Plumpton. The moral of this story is that ratings and odds calculated from them just reflect the opinion of the compiler, and that is there only merit. Here is the race by RPR and also Pattern Form. Stick to one you respect or compile your own from form and related factors: The ‘likely’ qualifiers are starred:
Odds from RPR<br>1 104 13/2 13pts SP 9/2 no bet<br>2 104 13/2 13pts* SP 12/1 lost<br>3 103 15/2 11pts* SP 14/1 lost<br>4 102  8/1 11pts* SP 15/2 no bet<br>5 100 10/1  9pts SP7/2 no bet<br>6  98  13/1 7pts (any f/c over 10/1not considered) SP20/1<br>7  99  10/1  9pts SP 10/1 WON return 99pts – Cusp<br>8 100 10/1  9pts SP12/1 lost<br>9  96  18/1 5pts (not considered) over 10/1) SP12/1<br>10 102 8/1 11pts* SP 12/1 lost<br>11  92 100/1 1pts (not considered over 10/1)
Result – Return 99pts – 53pts staked = +46
<br>My Pattern Form site ratings derived from 4 factors scored 6,5,4,3,2,1 in descending order from the 6 month table – Class (as advised by Nick Mordin), Speed (Nick Mordin),<br>SF not weight-adjusted, Hcap rating adjusted for distance behind/lbs weight. The ‘likely’ qualifiers are starred:
Odds derived from Pattern Form factors:<br>1  0  ?<br>2 21 5/2 28pts*<br>3  3 22/1 4pts (any f/c over 10/1 not considered)<br>4  0 ?<br>5 12 5/1 16pts <br>6  5 14/1 6pts (not considered)<br>7  1 80/1 1pt (not considered)<br>8  9 7/1  12pts<br>9  6 11/1 8pts (not considered)<br>10 17 10/3 22pts*<br>11  0  ?<br> <br>Result – 64pts staked lost
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(Edited by Formath at 6:51 pm on Feb. 26, 2007)
I agree David – I shall be staying away from this one.
Similarly to you I’ve got Cusp in at 7/2 (+3.5 on The forecast) and Blueland at 18’s (+2).
However, this is something that I’ve only ever played about with and that was quite a few years ago, so I’m on an upward learning curve.
<br>
.. I take it from this that you have all made fortunes backing Cusp today .. ??<br>:biggrin:
Well done David – you can never have enough paper and pens, notebooks, post-its, folders, files, paper clips, hole punch etc etc! I’m one of those sad people that ‘collect’ stationery tems.
What a result Carlisle pulling out a 9/2 shot and a 7/2 shot winning comfortably at 10’s. :biggrin:
<br>(Edited by Pompete at 4:54 pm on Feb. 26, 2007)<br>
(Edited by Pompete at 4:55 pm on Feb. 26, 2007)
I only managed a 16/1 winner today, results so far .. <br>W: 2 <br>R: 16<br>LSP: +2.5
Looks like the ratings brigade are off to a flyer !!
As stated here are my ratings for last sat<br>3.10 Kempton<br>Celtic son 118<br>Billyvoddan 108<br>Lacdoudal 97<br>Cornish sett 84<br>With out doubt 84<br>Simon 84
3.45 Kempton<br>Parrain 86<br>Poquelin 81<br>Gracechurch 52
3.40 Ling<br>Party boss 114<br>Blue bajan 112<br>Grand passion 111<br>Birkspiel 101<br>Cusoon 100
4.40 Ling
Desperate dan 97<br>Pieter brueghel 89<br>Magic glade 86<br>Graze on 83<br>Dancing mystery 83
have fun
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