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Hi dave
nice one.  Please educate me with regard to the meaning of the word "stochastic ".
byefrom<br>carlisle
"I’m cherry picking, back fitting, hind sighting son of a gun"
(Edited by carlisle at 6:41 am on Mar. 7, 2007)
Good post, Dave.
I agree with just about every word. As you say, you cannot create a profit out of a losing method(e.g backing unnamed favs) by employing any sort of staking plan, multiple banks etc., I think it may be possible to do it in the short term, but the long run result(ruin) is as certain as death and taxes.
Interesting stuff, but in an endeavour to supply a few winners to work an edge from 3 race today. I haven’t listed the whole field simply the top two/three/four rated and corrseponding required odds.
3.10 Fontwell
Peephole  94  7/2 1st 3/1<br>Court Alliance  94  7/2 2nd 5/4
<br>4.15 Fontwell
Garston Star  97  7/1 3rd 20/1<br>Fireside Legend  97  7/1<br>Tetragon  97  7/1
<br>4.25 Catterick
Southern Baazar  90  11/2<br>Harpurs Girl  89  11/2<br>Truly Fruitful  85  15/2<br>Needwood Spirit  85  15/2
<br>Reflections<br>Well – a nice little winner, shame that a non runner cramped the odds, followed by a lovely e/w touch and a complete blank therefore just about covered all bases so a pleasing day.
(Edited by Pompete at 5:44 pm on Mar. 7, 2007)
carlisle .. A stochastic process is one whose behavior is non-deterministic in that a state does not fully determine its next state .. from wikipedia.
All this means, as far as staking is concerned is that, you cannot determine your next stake size until you know the outcome of the next event and then your stake size should reflect that and cater for randomness.
I take it that like me your all getting your ratings done ready for Cheltenham,if so good luck
Yes have fun, having a wee break just now .. busy at work and busy getting ready for the new flat season.
Whats a Cheltenham ?
.. going back to the previous posts about loss chasing, I would add that a staking strategy about a profitable system is a good thing, IMO. I do use this type of staking myself and unlike loss chasing (ie, staking to generate a profit) this is known as incrimental staking. One such staking system is the Retirement Staking Plan I dont have a problem with this because the stakes are linked in to a top level points bank and if your like me and play with medium sized stakes it can make things more enjoyable. Level stakes with no point bank limit is best, Kelly staking is good when you have limited funds and incrimental staking is good fun.
Ratings for first day Cheltenham this should be a laugh<br>top few only for each race
2.00<br>Hide the evidence 129<br>De soso 115<br>Tipperary all star 109<br>Orbit o’ gold 106<br>De valira 106
2.35<br>My way de solzen 116<br>Buena vista 115<br>Another promise 114<br>Don’t push it 112<br>Genini lucy 112
3.15<br>Brave inca 132<br>Macs joy 132<br>Iktitaf 130<br>Hardy eustace 130<br>Desert quest 129<br>Acambo 129
4.00<br>Cornish rebel 115<br>Sir rembrandt 113<br>Juveigneur 110<br>Little brick 109<br>Lacdaoudal 107
4.40<br>Spot the difference 124<br>Royal auclair 107<br>L’aventure 91
5.20<br>Ned ludd 93<br>Pancake 87<br>Kings revenge 86<br>Laustra bad 80<br>Markington 80
Thats my bit for tuesday<br>
I just (foolishly) joined a paid rating service. When my tips for today come available i’ll post the top 5. See how it goes (fingers crossed for my sakes)
The main argument against progressive staking is the question of whether you think the second(and subsequent) selections are fancied more than the first selection.
The logical approach is to rate your bets on the individual circumstances of each race. Each race is a separate event, unconnected with the previous and subsequent events. This leads to betting on a points scale which is proportionate to the strength of your fancy. An example would be a 1pt to 5pts (maximum).
Despite the logic of this, for the moderate staker, a system such as the VDW plan supplied by Formath can be interesting. A lot of people are as much interested in maximising enjoyment as they are in maximising profits.
Here’s mine…..
2.00 <br>Granit Jack 74<br>Amaretto Rose 70<br>Kicks for Free 66
2.35 <br>My way de solzen 76<br>Don’t push it 74<br>Fair Along 68<br>Good Spirit 68
3.15 <br>Brave inca 75 <br>Straw Bear 70<br>Detroit City 69
4.00 <br>Lacdaoudal 75<br>Cornish rebel 74<br>Mon Mome 71
4.40 <br>Royal auclair 63<br>L’aventure 63<br>Spot the difference 59
5.20 <br>Gaspara 77<br>Pouvoir 74<br>Pancake 71
Best to stear well clear of using my ratings for anything other than a jolly laugh!
Welcome to the forum ricarrrdo .. those ratings don’t look too bad.
Artemis, the idea behind any sort of progressive staking must tie in with where you are, personally, in the punting food chain. If your average stake is less than a fiver and your bank is £300 or something, then progressive staking might not be a bad thing. If you could double your original bank before you blow it, you’d be playing for nothing.
Agreed Dave.
There are really two sets of rules in this game; one set for the hobbyists like us, and one set for the professionals like Alan Potts.
Although I’m generally in this for amusement and diversion, I’m aware of the way professionals would approach staking.
True Artemis ..
An incrimental staking plan could work something like this .. <br>This is called a ladder, its a variation on the VDW staking but instead of doubling up you add 10%
Bank: 200 pts (1% = £2)<br>To set this up in excel or on a bit of paper.<br>You need 4 columns and 20 rows<br>Column 1 = Bank size<br>Column 2 = Stake<br>Column 3 = Loss<br>Column 4 = Aim
In the first write £200 in the bank column, £2 in the stake column, -£2 in the Loss column and £2 in the aim column.
In the next row, deduct £2 from £200 for the bank column, multiply the stake £2 by 1.1 to add 10% £2.20, put -£2.20 in the lose column and add this to the aim, so your aim is now -£4.20
Repeat that for the remaining rows .. this gives you 20 bets and if they all lose your original starting bank of £200 is halved.
If you do this before any racing you have a ladder to work up and down. For example if you dont have a winner for 9 bets and you are on row 10 your stake will be £4.72 and your aim is £31.87 (£32) / £4.72 = 6.7 .. you will need a 7/1 winner to clear the aim .. if your winner is 5/1, you win £4.76 x 5 = £23.80. Deduct this from your aim (£32 – £24 = £8) and you look on the ladder what stake you should be using when your aim is £8 .. go to the value beneath your aim and you would stake £2.42 on the next race. This is very safe and if your lucky you will win quite a bit without risking too much money in the process.
Add all of your winnings to your bank and increase your starting stake value until the bank doubles. Top the bank up if it halves in value. <br>:cool:
I faired poorly yesterday….
2.00 <br>Granit Jack 74 2nd – 15/2<br>Amaretto Rose 70 3rd – 2/1 f<br>Kicks for Free 66
2.35 <br>My way de solzen 76 1st – 7/2<br>Don’t push it 74 <br>Fair Along 68 2nd – 10/3 f<br>Good Spirit 68
3.15 <br>Brave inca 75 2nd – 11/2<br>Straw Bear 70 <br>Detroit City 69
4.00 <br>Lacdaoudal 75 <br>Cornish rebel 74 <br>Mon Mome 71
4.40 <br>Royal auclair 63 <br>L’aventure 63 <br>Spot the difference 59
5.20 <br>Gaspara 77 1st 9/2 jf<br>Pouvoir 74 <br>Pancake 71
<br>On On to the next!
Ricarrrdo,
I think you are being very hard on yourself – you did very well. A 7/2 winner and a 9/2 winner, making it a profitable day.
Dave,
Looks a very useful template for a staking system. I’ve not seen it before.
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