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Why tom? who was the last supreme winner to win the CH? Half of them go over fences and Unless they win a supreme in the manner in which appreciate it won, theyve absolutely no right to be sub 33/1 12 months out, without running in open company and without any idea if theyll switch to novice chasing
The fact that you think anything sub 33/1 is acceptable on that basis is confusing to me, antepost betting for the most part is horrendous especially on these types of races, as because jonbon is nickys, if it was NTD hed be 10/1 + for the supreme and would barely be in next years CH market yet. The fact theres even a market with anything in it under 10/1 for 14 months away is criminal
And nath/kev i wasnt placing the bet i just went adding him into both markets and it came up as i was in disbelief that 33/1 was the price, so i wasnt aware that was the case, i genuinely wouldnt back it under 125/1. Not knocking anyone for backing it at 33/1, i just find it crazy thats the price they have it, must be laughing there heads off when they see money coming in for it, there essentially laying you 6/1 before hes won this for the best 2m hurdle race 13 months away when theres a 50/50 chance he will go over a fence lol
I think Tom was saying about your quote of 125/1 ham
You only need a 4/1 winner and you are sitting with a ticket of 125/1 for the champion hurdle..
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Will Henderson target the Arkle with both though.??
If anything Jonbon looks size wise from what I’ve seen on the television at least a bit more compact and more hurdle looking type than Constitution Hill.
The owner had Jezki run in the Supreme not win but go on to win the Champion Hurdle the next season. My Tent or Yours ran in both and came close to winning both was 2nd in both. Going further back Binocular was runner up in the Supreme before going off fav in the Champion Hurdle getting beat.
None of those won the double but were not far off. Honeysuckle apart there isn’t much depth in the division.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Henderson did say both horses’ future is over fences so anyone taking a Champion Hurdle bet on them at this stage is taking a chance that there is a u-turn somewhere coming.
OK, I’m going out on a limb here …
It won’t happen (obviously) but if Constitution Hill and/or Jonbon contested in this year’s Champion Hurdle, do you think they’d get placed … or even win?
Neither has beaten anything half decent so its impossible to say
Constitution Hill has looked like a freak to me on his two starts but I couldn’t say with any confidence that he’d beat sharjah, zanahiyr or epatante
Yes nathan but the point being you “need” him to win the first race, the toughest 2m novice grade 1 about, that needs to be factored into the price massively, then you need to survive The fences/hurdles decision then you need him not to get injured for 12 months + then you need him to uphold the form the season after…
I get what your getting at though, just not for me
Neither would place rob, theres still no evidence there any good outside novice company…
There are reasons why Jonbon could lose lose the Supreme yet be a better horse next year. Can see him travelling well but – after sweating up badly – not quite good eough… And then – with experience – doesn’t get anywhere near so uptight pre-race next season and wins the 2023 Champion Hurdle.
If backing Jonbon for next year’s Champion I’d rather around 12/1 to win just that race than (less than three times the price) 33/1 to win both 2022 Supreme and 2023 Champion. But good luck Nathan.
Value Is EverythingI’d rather have a go at the 33’s or nothing at this stage ginge because if he loses the Supreme you are likely to get more than the 12’s anyway and can reacess the situation what discipline he’ll be more likely to be heading
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That Pied Piper looked a very slick and talented hurdler who loved the track. Why wouldn’t they go for the Supreme instead and none of those future chasers might be able to trouble him.
Any opinions on 33/1 Kilcruit? Might he get a run if he wins very easily today?
If yes the 33/1 looking good…ok if not it’s burned money😂
Kilcruit was my initial idea for this race after the Champion bumper.
He then beat Sir Gerrard really easily but talk was about the longer race
He is this seasons biggest disappointment by a country mile so far
good luck Noverre, he is in my 10 to follow, I think..
so would be nice to see him back in form but I wouldn’t be betting on itGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Seems like I’ll get a run for my money😃 Have taken the 25/1 before the race and my initial bet at 7/1 is also still alive. Think this will be his price after sir gerhard going to the ballymore…
Echo that nath, i was fairly vocal about what i thought of him at the start of the season, but hes been so disappointing, ill need to just let him do it now and be happy he wins if he does as i cannot back him even at 20s currently
Could just be better turn of the year as his DRF bumper was the start of him
Still feel hes the most talented novice horse in training, not showing it for whatever reason though
First time tongue tie on kilcruit today
If he’s been having breathing issues may explain his weak finishes first two starts having looked the winner turning in
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