ST James Palace stakes

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  • #1250968
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4525

    This looks a straight fight between the two market leaders. Any value that there might have been in Awtaad has gone since the rain came down.

    #1250983
    Chivers1987Chivers1987
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    • Total Posts 887

    I haven’t decided yet whether to have a punt on this race but if I do, it will be Awtaad, even at the now reduced price of around 2/1.

    I’m basing it on some of the bare form from the Guineas races where Galileo Gold beats First Selection over 8 lengths in the GB 2000. First Selection is then a little over 5 lengths to The Gurkha in France.

    Awtaad is all over Galileo Gold so I put him ahead of The Gurkha on that basic evidence. The Gurkha is essentially more entitled to improve the most with only 3 runs behind his back but as mentioned earlier in the thread, Awtaad would have plenty of scope himself.

    The unsettled forecast is a nightmare for the rest of the week, it looks likely to be soft all over by the first race but I’m worried that the course will be hit with so much rain that it could be heavy all over. Nobody wants that for this weeks meeting.

    #1251006
    Jonibake
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    • Total Posts 4141

    The Gurkha waltzed away with his maiden on soft ground so wouldn’t worry me at all. He is a great horse in the making and great horses win on all types of ground.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1251044
    goreisking
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 192

    Awtaad is a good horse but he is no Gurkha, plus it will come to a finish…
    1) Moore won’t get beat in a finish
    2) He is on the better horse with the better turn of foot

    Only one winner

    #1251087
    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 599

    If the ghurka keeps improving as he has done he must be the bet of the week. He scooted up in his maiden and the second ran well in the derrinstown. His win in the French 2000 guineas was awesome and he showed blistering speed. Unless it gets really boggy he is the best horse in my opinion. I would expect a few big priced winners with the going being very soft. Pity that loads of top horses won’t be there and the ground could certainly take the shine of a few of the races.

    #1251096
    IBRacingIBRacing
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    I’m telling you lot now, this Awtaad is very, very good and The Gurkha won’t live with him. He will be held up longer than he was in Ireland and he will swoop past at the distance.

    The last time I was this bullish was Gleneagles in last years 2000 Guineas, look what happened then. ;-)

    I didn’t get 4/1 I decided to wait until the the rain came so I got 11/4.

    #1251105
    goreisking
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 192

    I’m telling you lot now, this Awtaad is very, very good and The Gurkha won’t live with him. He will be held up longer than he was in Ireland and he will swoop past at the distance.

    The last time I was this bullish was Gleneagles in last years 2000 Guineas, look what happened then. ;-)

    I didn’t get 4/1 I decided to wait until the the rain came so I got 11/4.

    Awtaad will be in a very bad position also, he will be stuck on the inside rail and isnt used to that at all. Notice he is always on the outside away from everything. He might need a little luck also on the rail and I am not sure if he will like to come through horses…

    Gurkha wins all day

    #1251111
    thejudge1thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2254

    This is the kind of insightful commentary that you get from channel four pundits. “Awtaad will walk it”

    “Nah, the gurkha all day mate”

    some sort of intelligent commentary would be nice…. :cry:

    #1251113
    goreisking
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 192

    Read the convos proper before putting up silly comments! I told him what will happen! Dont put your 10p in if its not worth while :good: good lad

    #1251168
    steeplechasingsteeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5734

    Galileo Gold seems excellent EW value at 13/2

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1251180
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4525

    Galileo Gold seems excellent EW value at 13/2

    Has done the bookmakers two favours this season but it is pretty hard to see him completing the hat trick.

    I think the very best he can hope for is third. After jumping well enough at the Curragh Dettori put him in exactly the wrong position but even when he finally got out he looked very laboured and could make little or no impression on the winner. There was a gap to the third but effectively it looked a poor race with only two horses able to act on the ground.

    I presume Dettori will try to bounce out and hope the other jocks have a tactical nightmare.

    #1251184
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1894

    This looks like a dreadful year for 3yos with so-so juvenile Galileo Gold taking an awful Guineas, an inexperienced maiden winner trouncing a bad French Guineas field and Awtaad rising from obscurity to take the Irish version.

    Given the state of the ground I prefer the ‘Awtaad beast’ but I don’t see much value in the trio at the prices. It’s intriguing as a punting conundrum but hardly a race for the ages. The older milers aren’t much cop without Solow around but I’ll be very surprised if any of these 3-year-olds can win an all-age 1m G1 this year.

    #1251187
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Connections say Awtaad is fitter now than he was in Ireland.

    Despite handing Galileo Gold his ass on a silver salver last time, the official Handicapper has still got the Newmarket Guineas winner 1lb ahead on the ratings.

    I am calling BS on that sentiment and am convinced we will see that tomorrow.

    I make this a two way shout here and it’s tight on the ratings with the Racing Post having Awtaad 123 to 122 for The Gurkha and the official Handicapping having it 120 to 119 for the O’Brien horse.

    I think both horses are open to similar improvement, despite the extra runs Awtaad has had. The key factor may be the going and although The Gurkha has won on heavy, his best performance by far was on better ground. Some people got trapped into backing Deauville on soft ground in last year’s Racing Post Trophy, reasoning that the horse had won on heavy on his first start. Aidan had said all week he was concerned about the soft ground, and so it proved.

    In my opinion there is a big difference between winning maidens on one type of ground and then winning on it in group 1 company. At the top level I believe the margins are much finer and you need as many things in your favour as possible.

    Galileo Gold is clear next best and I can see the appeal as an each-way punt in theory. The problem is that he has to face two opponents who are way better than anything he faced in his Newmarket Guineas win and one of them has already beaten him. I just can’t see him as likely to land the win part of an each-way bet unless two horses run below form.

    If you could rely on Galileo Gold to just run his own race, he is probably a shoo-in for third but if he commits to tackling the market leaders, he may run his race a bit too hard and could tire, losing 3rd to something more moderately ridden.

    Emotionless is on a fools errand in my opinion and is typical, impatient, poor thinking from Godolphin. He suffered an injury in the Dewhurst and has been off for eight months. Surely a gentle re-introduction to racing is what the horse needs, rather than tackling three 2000 Guineas winners?

    Even if we forgive Emotionless his Dewhurst run, will his best from last year be good enough anyway? Media people talk about form from big races but I sometimes wonder if they even bother checking how it panned out? How many are aware that nothing that ran in last years Dewhurst has won in 13 races since? Similarly, how many would know that only one winner came from the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last year, and that was Ibn Malik who won the the Listed Free Handicap?

    That’s 31 races and one listed winner from Emotionless’s last two races and it’s not inspiring. I think he is a silly value price at 12/1 and I question the wisdom of putting him into a tough race like this first time up.

    In a close one I favour Atwaad marginally and my original pick was on value grounds as he was 4/1. I fully expect The Gurkha to be a lot tougher nut to crack than Galileo Gold was.

    Good luck to all, I doubt anyone will be hosing up in this myself. The form is pretty tight coming in.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1251199
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4141

    I think we will see tomorrow that, far from it being a poor year for 3 year olds, it may well be a vintage one (at a mile at least). I agree that the English Guineas form hasn’t looked that strong and so that has been used to dismiss the French Guineas form. After all First Selection was beaten further by Galileo Gold than he was by The Gurkha. Leaving that aside for a second, just look at how the French race has worked out. So far 6 horses have run since. The 11th home, Zelzal, comfortably won a Group 3 at the weekend. The 10th home, Jimmy Two Times, won a listed race. The 9th home, Attendu, won a Group 3 beating Esoterique and Territories. The 8th home, Moon Trouble, finished 2nd to Zelzal and the 5th and 3rd home, Zarak and Dicton finished 2nd and 3rd in the French Derby. You have to say that this is rock solid form. The Gurkha didn’t just beat them, he pulverised them. So what of First Selection? Well is there a chance he improved a fair bit for Newmarket? Simon Crisford certainly thought so which is why he supplemented him for that French race and I guess why he runs tomorrow rather than in the easier Jersey Stakes.

    I have made no secret of how much I rate The Gurkha and I honestly think he is something special. He was deeply impressive on very soft ground in his maiden and is also bred to go on the ground. I expect him to win by at least a couple of lengths. I’ll be there to cheer him home!!

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1251200
    Chivers1987Chivers1987
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    • Total Posts 887

    First selection is at his best on good/firm ground so he would have been inconvenienced at Newmarket and inevitably performed better in France. I was going to take that form on face value in terms of winning distance and back Awtaad, but its so tight and the prices so short that I will leave it alone.

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