ST James Palace stakes

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2016 ST James Palace stakes

This topic contains 83 replies, has 21 voices, and was last updated by  mickeyjp 3 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #1244378

    darren83
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    AIR FORCE BLUE 7/2

    Yes he ran a shocker in 2000 guineas but i give him another chance.Also when you look those in front most look to be going up in trip.Galieo Gold and Maasat one could go derby other being step up to 1m2 so look like they not run.And other horses in front of him who may stay at 1m. I doubt would beat him again.I think he bounce back in irish 2000 before coming here.
    AOB has got horses back from a no show to then winning next time and i not give up on this horse getting back on track at Curragh and at Ascot.

    #1245679
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    If Galileo Gold stays at a mile for this I’ll be keeping him on side.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1245975
    St Nicholas Abbey
    St Nicholas Abbey
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    I wouldn’t put it past Air Force Blue to bounce back. Look at Power a few years back.

    #1248043
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    The complexion of this race has now changed with Air Force Blue bombing out again and 99.9% dropping back in trip.
    The Gurkha is now favourite best price 13/8, Awtaad 4/1 and Galileo Gold at 5/1.
    The Gurkha put in a eye popping performance but has only run on soft or worse going, how will he fair on faster ground?

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1248149
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I backed Awtaad at 4/1 for this.

    Hugo Palmer has said “Bring it on” in the rematch with Galileo Gold and cited that his horse will go better on faster ground but Awtaad is improving rapidly, has won on better ground and has the speed for 7F so I see no fears on that score.

    Despite the commentator’s crazy assertion, Galileo Gold did NOT travel as well as Awtaad in the Irish Guineas. If anything, I got the impression he would have beaten the Newmarket Guineas winner more readily on a better surface.

    That decided, it then becomes about The Gurkha. I watched The Gurkha in France and was well impressed by him, however, at the time, I checked the full result on the Racing Post website and they gave the ground as “Good”.

    I later discovered that it was soft and I have a feeling that the French horses simply were not up to much and may not have got home on the surface. The Gurkha was a ready winner and plenty has already been said about the merits of his form so there is no point banging on about that again. It’s a game of opinions and about picking a horse you feel is value and I have gone against The Gurkha here.

    For me, Awtaad’s win looks a lot more solid. He’s beaten a Guineas winner and done so fairly readily. The Racing Post have rated him 123, which is 1lb higher than The Gurkha for now. Plenty of promise for improvement in The Gurkha but Awtaad is not fully exposed either and he does have form at shorter. If it were fast ground it begs the question as to how The Gurkha will cope.

    It’s been a fairly mediocre year for O’Brien colts, with US Army Ranger well regarded but hardly setting the heather on fire. Air Force Blue has flopped and the dearth of mile talent has led The Gurkha here almost by default.

    Some people don’t like it when targets are changed and that’s precisely what has happened with The Gurkha here. That means I see him as poor value at 7/4.

    Awtaad beat a horse rated 120 at the Curragh, whereas The Gurkha beat a horse rated 107 at Deauville.

    I don’t care how many good horses you can squeeze in between First Selection and The Gurkha, I am of a mind that the lot of them would have been torn a new one had they faced Awtaad.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1248222

    LD73
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    Ground will play a big part in this – on good or quicker I would be on GG side but any give and I think Awtaad would just be my pick over The Gurkha.

    The course dyamics could also have a fairly big say in this as well as they are all coming off races over a pretty much straight mile so encountering traffic problems on Ascot’s round course is not beyond the realms of possibility and you don’t have a lot of time in the straight to get yourself out of trouble – especially as there is probably not a lot between the three.

    #1248390
    IBRacing
    IBRacing
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    Galileo Gold got tapped for foot last season on fast ground and as Awtaad travelled all over him in Ireland I don’t see it being any different this year.

    I think he needs a bit of cut and a stamina test at the trip. He won’t get that at Ascot.

    #1249107
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8280

    Galileo Gold got tapped for foot last season on fast ground and as Awtaad travelled all over him in Ireland I don’t see it being any different this year.

    I think he needs a bit of cut and a stamina test at the trip. He won’t get that at Ascot.

    I think Hugo Palmer is in the “havers” in believing that Galileo Gold will turn this around on faster ground. To my eye the best horse by some margin won the Irish Guineas and he travelled like the winner all the way.

    Blue De Vega’s trainer got the message and he is wisely stepping his colt up by 2f to avoid Awtaad.

    We will hopefully see some of The Gurkha’s vanquished foes this weekend to give a pointer to the form of the French 2000 Guineas.

    This could be one of the best races of the meeting.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1250409
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    If all three of them turn up this could be the race of the week!!

    If forced to have a bet then my money would be on Awtaad but it is certainly looking like a race to savour!

    #1250433
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    I like The Gurkha for reasons explained on another thread.

    However Awtaad also looked awesome in Ireland and is a formidable opponent. If he wins would I be right to say Pendegrast would be the oldest trainer to win at Royal Ascot? I recall College Chapel winning for Vincent O’Brien when that trainer was well into his twilight years.

    #1250471

    goreisking
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    • Total Posts 192

    Certainty of the meeting…The Gurkha will win it easily, Awtaad easily second best but dosent have the same turn of foot.
    The Gurkha will be tracking them, then fly by them all.

    Very easy one :good:

    #1250783
    IBRacing
    IBRacing
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    • Total Posts 525

    Certainty of the meeting…The Gurkha will win it easily, Awtaad easily second best but dosent have the same turn of foot.
    The Gurkha will be tracking them, then fly by them all.

    Very easy one :good:

    Disagree I think Awtaad will take this and if The Gurkha doesn’t run which may be a possibility now the rain has arrived with plenty more forecast, I think he’ll absolutely hack up.

    The way Awtaad ran all over Galileo Gold in Ireland I think he beats The Gurkha anyway.

    #1250806
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8280

    Ascot is good to soft at the moment. There was 20mm of rain yesterday and there is more rain forecast on Sunday.

    There is a mixture of sunshine and showers forecast for every day next week.

    The soft ground horses, such as Mecca’s Angel, are being backed.

    Galileo Gold is very weak, out to 11/2 for the St James Palace. He faces a tough ask against Awtaad if it’s softish, and even on better ground I would have preferred the Irish Guineas winner.

    Awtaad seemed the value at 4/1 and he’s a top priced 9/4 now.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1250905
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    Interesting that Ferguson and Buick are talking up the chances of Emotionless.

    I wonder if this horse has been overhyped since his two year old career. Looked highly impressive visually when he won the Champagne but done little since.

    It is possible that he has been overrated on the basis of that one run, it looked impressive but when you look at the speed figures for that race the time he returned was pretty ordinary.

    I suspect this is the last chance saloon for Emotionless. If he runs well here and belies his odds then all options are open to him, but equally we could be finding out that the champagne stakes was a false dawn when he fades out of contention and the Emotionless bubble is well and truly burst.

    #1250918

    Seasider
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    However Awtaad also looked awesome in Ireland and is a formidable opponent. If he wins would I be right to say Pendegrast would be the oldest trainer to win at Royal Ascot? I recall College Chapel winning for Vincent O’Brien when that trainer was well into his twilight years.

    Clive Brittain was 79 when he trained Rizeena to win the 2014 Coronation Stakes. I believe Kevin Prendergast is 83 so he would become the oldest trainer (in living memory) to win at Royal Ascot should Awtaad duly oblige.

    Vincent O’Brien was 76 when College Chapel won the Cork & Orrery Stakes in 1993.

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