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Have just had a small ew on King of Rome because I thought the odds were too big for an O’Brien horse ridden my Murtagh; however the horse I want to win is Tartan Bearer…I don’t like chestnut horses, I don’t like horses with blazes and lots of white about them…however, when I saw him on Dante day on the telly I totally fell in love with him. If New Approach wins they won’t even be able to get him into the winners enclosure…..always prefer nh racing, but I’m really looking forward to this afternoon’s race!
Like the majority on here I think this is a wide open race but feel that Michael Stoute is the man to beat. I really can’t split Tartan Bearer and Doctor Fremantle though. I am going to take the view already expressed on here by one writer that DF may be more a Leger horse and side with TB for this one. Good luck to all.
Mike.If I had to lay one I’d lay Dr Fremantle. This horse has been beaten in a handicap – this is no Derby winner. Also Ryan Moore chose Tartan Bearer weeks ago he obviously had no hesitation about which was the better. Dr Fremantle is running simply because Prince Khalid doesn’t have anything else following Twice Over’s flop at York.
Famous last words?
DERBY
(have my percentage chance, price and what that would be as a bookies price).
Alan Devonshire: Next to no chance. 0.05% 2000/1 (500/1).Alesandro Volta: Beat the Murtagh chosen one in the Lingfield Derby Trial but did not seem to handle the track that well. Even so looks fair value. 2% 50/1 (28/1).
Bashkirov: Pacemaker, no chance unless the others ignore him and goes 20 lengths clear.0.1% 1000/1 (300/1)
Bougeureau: Below form in the Italian Derby, should stay 12f, needs to improve greatly. 0.125% 800/1 (200/1).
Casual Conquest: Very impressive winner of the Derrinstown Trial over 10f on good. Niggled along before quickening clear,12f will suit. On a line through Moiquen comes out at least a 3 1/2 length better horse than French Derby runner up Famous Name. Only two races in his life so is inexperienced for this. But is capable of abnormal improvement because of that (if handling the course) 26.5% 11/4 (5/2).
Curtain Call: Can not see why he is so short in the market. Sure he split New Approach and Henrythenavigator at two, but Henry was below form on soft ground. Beaten a fair way by NA. Won a Mickey Mouse race first time up this season and missed the Lingfield Trial because of good-firm going. Both of Luca’s Derby winners won that race and has apparently been burning up the gallops. Form though is not much better than the Stoute trio. Had it been soft would’ve had a better chance. Bred to be best at 1 ½ miles plus. 12 1/2% 7/1.
Doctor Freemantle: won his Chester trial, quickening well, but the form does not look great. Only beat All The Aces ½ a length. Does though have bags of scope for improvement. Proven at 1 ½ miles and will stay further. 8.5% 11/1 (8/1).
Frozen Fire: Murtagh has jumped off him but the Dante form looks good. By Montjeu and his temperament seems to have rubbed off on Frozen Fire. High head carriage and did wander before sticking on. Possibly Epsom will not suit the horse but even so does look fair value. 5% 20/1 (14/1).
Kandahar Run: By Rock Of Gibraltar out of a Kenmare mare, from the family of Moulin (1m) winner Grey Lilas. Can pull at 1m2f, won a poor trial easily. Can improve but probably not at this trip. Probably only the price he is due to Henry Cecil training him. 2.25% 40/1 (25/1).
King Of Rome: The Murtagh chosen one, sure to stay. Beaten ¾ length on merit by Alesandro Volta. Has apparently shown improvement on the gallops but needs to. On form is much to short in the market.2% 50/1 (25/1)
Maidstone Mixture: Hurdler who should not be allowed to take his chance. No Price (2000/1).
New Approach: Comes here probably because connections want some cut. Carried head to one side in the Ire Guineas (firm). It remains to be seen if that race has left it’s mark (temperamentally and physically). Has front run in all bar the Dewhurst and it could be that is now important to him. Although bred to improve at this trip, the way he runs (enthusiastic front runner, may not do so. Coolmoore will not give him an easy time (quite rightly) 12.5% 7/1 (6/1).
Rio De La Plata: By Rahy (miler), dam sire 1m to 1m2f winner. Seemed to be coming to the end of his tether at 1m in the French Guineas. Little chance of staying. 2% 50/1 (28/1).
River Proud: NR.
Tajaaweed: By American Dynaformer but he is a stamina sire (Lucarno etc.). Is out of a Zilzal (miler) mare. Half brothers have been sprinters and milers but with speedier sires. Dam is a half sister to US sprinter Mr Greerly. However, he runs as though he’ll stay. Travelled well held up before quickening really well to beat Unnefer (winner since) pair clear. Has had an injury scare but connections are adamant nothing is wrong. Very good looking big colt, capable of abnormal progress. Over priced today. 12.5% 7/1 (11/2).
Tartan Bearer: Brother to Guineas / Derby runner up Golan. Won the Dante, not a great Dante with possibly only Frozen Fire and him running to form. It was a very reasonable time so can not be dismissed. Will stay, and has battling qualities. However, is too short now especially when
Frozen Fire beaten just a head is 20/1 plus. 12.5% 7/1 (11/2).Washington Irving: Close relation of Oaks winner Alexandrova, was the first O’Brien horse to be backed for this but has not shown his morning form. Will stay but has six lengths to find with Casual Conquest.
At 9/2 Casual Conquest and 12/1 Tajaaweed they look the best value to me. Alesandro Volta and Frozen Fire are fair value but not quite backable yet.
Mark
Value Is EverythingNot a strong feeling, and looks like quite a trappy Derby, so no doubt some kind of superstar will emerge and win by miles!
For me…
1st – Doctor Fremantle
2nd – Frozen Fire
3rd – Tartan BearerNot a strong feeling, and looks like quite a trappy Derby, so no doubt some kind of superstar will emerge and win by miles!
For me…
1st – Doctor Fremantle
2nd – Frozen Fire
3rd – Tartan BearerI hope something does. If I have one wish its that something emerges that becomes a superstar.
The most likely to do that is Casual Conquest IMO because he’s a big horse who is sure to keep improving. If he wins and wins well he could turn out to be special.
Thats the magic of the Derby the hope that a star is born.
Lets hope we don’t get a blanket finish or the race is won by something that has little chance of being anything but another "run of the mill" Derby winner.
Since I have switched right on to European racing, the Derby has not been kind to me.
If not for Coolmore then Sir Percy’s Derby would have to rate as strongly as a Group 3. Although we shall never know what could have been with either or Horatio Nelson or Visindar.
Last year improved the standard but my arms are still folded. Authorized just muddled with the rest of the Group 1 horses throughout the Summer/Autumn – however Soldier Of Fortune (he finished fifth in the Derby – it wasn’t that bad Epsom form!) and Mahler, Archipenko and Salford Mill (Helene Mascot) have developed further. And we wait to see what becomes of Lucarno.
Too bad the pair of horses who actually ended up world class and coming out of the Derby in 2005, were in fact milers (Dubawi and Oratorio).
Less said about 2004, the better.
I imagine that one of Sir Michael Stoute’s horses might win, but my own fancy, despite the stamina doubts, is Kandahar Run (each way).
Let’s hope that all the horses and jockeys come back safely.
It just did.
What we can be pleased of – is that this was a very hot Derby. Look at the top 4 finish!
Bloody Bolger without him I’d’ve had first and second
. Well its going to be interesting to see how that goes down.Looks an above average Derby though IMO.
Thought Moore and Smullen gave my pair fantastic rides.
Brilliant win from the best horse in the race.
Sour grapes indeed. In what way did he not have the best form going into the race?? 2nd in two classics…..
. Well its going to be interesting to see how that goes down.
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