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Rio de la Plata has less chance of staying than Neew Approach and is also held by that horse on the Natioinal Stakes form and Dewhurst form. A 3-figure price wouldn’t tempt me.
No strong views but I did back Tartan Bearer after the Dante. Best bet of the day looks like Merlins Dancer in the Dash. Better drawn and lower in the weights than on either of his 2 runs in the race and should get the run of things.
I backed Frozen Fire immediately after the Dante, and with my other ante-post hope Collection not running, I’ll probably have a little more on the second of O’Brien’s six ‘darts’.
I may also have a small interest in Alan Devonshire at huge prices.
Victor Chandler’s 25/1 looks sure to be popular on Merlin’s DJ- if ever there was a good back-to lay proposition he’s surely it. What price Pricewise?
Wondering if that was an ante-post price now, too far out of line to be right.
I backed Luca Cumani 10 years ago and on the day i saw the Derby before seeing a show in Manchester in the evening.
Tomorrow Luca Cumani has a decent Derby runner and i am also off to Manchester for an evenings music so can history repeat itself.
I do like the Dermot Weld horse, after seeing his Derrinstown win he looked like he will be suited by a bit further and if New Approach can settle then he will be in the shake up at the business end.
Casual Conquest.
Anyone having an ew bet on the race should check out Paddy Power. 1/4 odds first 4.
Tomorrow night I have a strong feeling that we’ll all be looking at re-runs of the Derrinstown and thinking – ‘how the hell did we let that go off at 5/1 in the Derby’.
Casual Conquest a strong fancy for me with New Approach the danger although I think it might all get too much for him.
Rio De Plata a big price at 20/1. Probably 5/1 to stay but if he does then he’ll be bang in there.
Have a great day everyone whether you’re watching on TV or going to the Downs.
And remember – no matter what the Australians or the Kentuckians, or the Scousers for that matter, say – The Derby is still the king of them all.
This year’s Derby is wide open as many have said, with most of the principles having marked negative points or question marks.
Perhaps I’m partly seeing this because I was convinced from day one that we saw a very good Derby trial at Chester, but Stoute’s apparent third string Doctor Fremantle still looks to have amongst the least amount going against him. The Chester Vase shows us he stays and stays well, and Pampas Cat has since reassured that those beaten a long way that day were far from no-hopers. He’ll also have the race run to suit if he’s good enough should Ballydoyle’s tactics be in any way reminiscent of those employed in the two 12f G1’s today.
He of course needs to improve and there has been a lot of dismissive comments passed based on his handicap defeat at HQ, but he improved so massively between Newmarket & Chester that anything like the same upgrade again would give him a huge chance of making the frame.let it not rain,
let it not rain,
let it not rain…till the Derby is run.Anon, 19th century
In my memory, this is the most exciting Derby eve I can ever remember.
What a fantastic field…there is often a lot of talk before the Derby that this years field is substandard. The truth is the time to judge the strength of the Derby field is about September but from this side of the race it looks spectacular.1 1223-4 ALAN DEVONSHIRE 3 9-0
Hard to fancy this fellow, in fact, if pushed, I would go for Trevor Brooking in a match bet.2 831-41 ALESSANDRO VOLTO 3 9-0
40/1! 40/1! can you believe it? can you ****in believe it?
Its just wrong, its just plain wrong. Son of Montjeu out of an unraced mare who hails from a good family.
Winner of Lingfield trial (ears pricked etc), wide on the bend…hmmm. Previous Ballysax effort can be dismissed due to
a low hanging saddle. A smashing specimen…it can win. Deserted by Johnny due to gallop performance at home,
AV has never looked the type to put it in on his own midden heid…badly done Johnny, badly done. It can win3 34-53 BASHKIROV 3 9-0
Aidan O’Brien David McCabe
Odds: 200-1 Pacemaker4 43-127 BOUGUEREAU 3 9-0
The Denis Law of the field… as he flopped badly in Italy last time out. Equipment problems apparently, badly shod.5 1-1 CASUAL CONQUEST 3 9-0
This fellow can really move, he is a terrific athlete and any criticism of his leg cadence would be
well wide of the mark. A smashing physique and can quicken. The Derrinstown is a spectacular race for producing
winners, see below;Casual Conquest
Archipenko
Dylan Thomas
Yeats
Fracas
Alamshar
High Caparral
Galileo
Sinndar
’nuff said6 2215-1 CURTAIN CALL 3 9-0
I have been hard on this fellow in the past, calling him slow amongst other things. probably a bit harsh and
that is in part because the thought of removing a horse from the great Jessica Harrington to improve its chances is quite amusing.7 221-21 DOCTOR FREMANTLE 3 9-0
Sir Michael Stoute Kerrin McEvoy
Odds: 9-1 Named after a draughty entity around Perth, which reminds me of a youth hosteling holiday of
my youth. I am a bit scared of this fellow but not enough to nominate him. I think he will flop tomorrow
and go on to have a great season.8 18-2 FROZEN FIRE 3 9-0
Another one who has been backheeled by Johnny. I was at York on Dante day and cant say I was impressed by the normally starry trial. Head in the air a bit (not unusual for a Montjeu) ..can’t see it.9 211-21 KANDAHAR RUN 3 9-0
No one would I enjoy Rock of Gibraltar having a Derby winner more than I (had the 2nd last year)
But dont think this is the year for another Derby winner for Scotland’s greatest trainer.
Yes, Henry Richard Amhurst Cecil is, in fact, scottish.10 710-52 KING OF ROME 3 9-0
JM has gone for this one, RP trophy flop, Ballysax flop, Lingfield trial flop…but did win a Tipperary maiden…so its not all bad news.11 0-5303 MAIDSTONE MIXTURE 3 9-0
Nothing to say except that Maidstone is a bit of a toilet.12 111-22 NEW APPROACH 3 9-0
Champion 2yo, bred to stay, best form from 2 Guineas…so all good then?
Err.. no, the bird has flown, two hard races on firm ground, dodgy temperament, his lead pony has
recently appointed his own agent. Sweaty, hard pulling, eye popping flop tomorrow…12th.13 1214-2 RIO DE LA PLATA 3 9-0
Zeppelin, Bismark, U-Boats, Enigma Code, Lederhosen…your boys took a hell of a beating.
Wont stay…cant win.14 817-43 RIVER PROUD 3 9-0
Non runner, I believe15 10-1 TAJAAWEED 3 9-0
‘A rose by any other name is still a rose’… thats bollocks actually, poorly named impressive horse
with the equivalent of a 14lb penalty across his saddlecloth16 2-11 TARTAN BEARER 3 9-0
See Frozen Fire re Dante. Will apparently start favourite according to the latest news.17 4-22 WASHINGTON IRVING 3 9-0
Must be something at home due to tall reputation and Derrinstown favourite. Looked outclassed
that day and hard to see a reversal.Summary
The two to concentrate on are Casual Conquest and Alessandro Volta. On at big prices on AV and will go in a again tomorrow
but will have a substantial bet on Casual Conquest, plus a small forecast.2 831-41 ALESSANDRO VOLTO 3 9-0
40/1! 40/1! can you believe it? can you ****in believe it?No i can`t, i make it 50s or 66s at least. The trial he won was beyond awful. He looked one paced and is just a really average horse. If anything half decent had been in the field at Lingfield he`d have been put in his place and would be heading to the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot as a 12/1 poke.
I’ve just backed Alan Devonshire, for some unfathomable reason, at a crazy 250s – I’m now off for a lie down before being committed.
As for the dash, I’ve invested in Evens and Odds with Ladbrokes at a stand out 25s.
Nowt wrong with that Marb(le). I think Cecils has a fine e/w shout….but try as i might i can’t see past New Approach. Infact i may end up having a National Hunt type stake on him today. (much to my shame)
I’m backing Tartan bearer. Think first run this year showed tremendous tenacity and will be all the better for that run and should be a better horse today over 2 furlongs further. Its R Moores pick of the Stoute trio and full brother to Golan. It should be favourite.
Also agree that Merlins Dancer must be backed for sprint. Well drawn this year and great speed figure last time. Hope the sun keep shining and ground gets good to firm
I have backed Curtain Call, so I guess I shall have to stick with him.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Maidstone Mixture is a stand out price at 1000/1 to give the Strasbourg hurdle form a massive boost. If he wins, it augers well for the chances of Chita Magnetica (beaten around nine lengths) in the Arc later in the season
On a more serious note I can’t see Casual Conquest finishing out of the first four and therefore is a great e/w bet at 9/2.
His trial race is a race that has been used by some decent previous Derby winners and CC couldn’t have been more impressive in winning. What he beat is questionable, but you can only beat what’s put in front of you. He will love the step up in trip and will take a lot of beating.
Washington Irving was beaten 6L in the Leopardstown race and there is no reason why he should get closer – but at the odds (around 40/1) I’m willing to have a small each way bet.
Best bet of the day though (if you can get a price) is that the Derby will go off at least ten minutes late – actually, make that 15-20.
Mike
Now for 3 or 4 hours of swerving in and out of focus for the Derby analysis.
I am content to lay New Approach. He’s becoming a pin-up boy without delivering the goods. The equine gods deserve to spite Jim Bolger anyway.
I have narrowed the contest down to:
Casual Conquest
Doctor Fremantle
Frozen Fire
Kandahar Run
King Of Rome
Tartan BearerThe most intriguing runners are the Aidan O’Brien Racing Post Trophy also-rans.
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