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Now for 3 or 4 hours of swerving in and out of focus for the Derby analysis.
I am content to lay New Approach. He’s becoming a pin-up boy without delivering the goods. The equine gods deserve to spite Jim Bolger anyway.
I have narrowed the contest down to:
Casual Conquest
Doctor Fremantle
Frozen Fire
Kandahar Run
King Of Rome
Tartan BearerThe most intriguing runners are the Aidan O’Brien Racing Post Trophy also-rans.
Me too MDerring.
I have narrowed it down to 3, in my opinion and analysis –
Casual Conquest
Tartan Bearer
Doctor Fremantle.Seems to be money coming for Tartan Bearer. Tissue price of 6/1 and is into 9/2 now.
I am now commited i think to Casual Conquest.
However Paul Nicholls had the first three home in the Gold Cup and who knows maybe Sir Michael Stoute could also have the first three home in the Derby.
The only plus side is for once we have a pretty wide open Derby just as it should be with plenty in with chances.
Looks a real riddle and a race to not get too heavily involved in, imho.
Contrary to what the pedigree "experts" are saying, Tajaaweed looks as if today’s extra distance will help him(saw out the extended 10 furlongs well at Chester – and in slick time ), and he should be staying on when a few of the others have had enough. Whether he’ll be good enough I’m not sure, but he probably achieved as least as much in his trial as a few others who are shorter in the market. He’ll do for me .
I don’t know why I do such a thing – but I tend to compare Casual Conquest to St Jovite in terms of their Derrinstown performance.
I think it a very open race and I wouldn’t be surprised if something wins at big odds.
A few comments:
Casual Conquest: very impressive in his trial. I might have a few quid on him. I’ll see what he looks like in the paddock & at the start.
(if the BBC bother to show the horses, rather than spending the time asking a bunch of drunken slags who they’re going to bet on)
Curtain Call: I just don’t see why this horse is so short in the odds.
New Approach: I’ve laid this one. There are a lot of negatives against him. In particular, his last run was a shocker.
Tartan Bearer: Dante winners have won 4 out of the last 5 Derbys (I think… I may have just made that up). However, they all won the Dante comfortably. He looks a little short in the odds for the winner of a bobbing finish.
Rio De La Plata: plenty of class. I didn’t get a good look at him in his last race, so I’m hoping to check out his physique today to see what it says about his stamina. (though, I suspect it’ll say "I’m a miler")
Others: there are plenty in with a shout.
I’m looking forward to it.
Steve
On the spreads
Potential Buys
A Volta
Curtain Call
Dr. Fremantle
Tartan Bearer
W. IrvingPotential Sells
Kandahar Run
King of Rome
New Approach
Rio de la Plata
TajaweedSwerve (too risky)
Casual Conquest
Frozen FireSelection
Tartan Bearer
Longshot
Washington Irving
Tartan Bearer for me.
No real confidence though there are seven or eight that I wouldn’t be surprised to see win.
Casual Conquest – on seasonal debut and clearly needing the run to slim his figure and build some more muscle profile for further tests down the track, he bolted in impressively in the Derrinstown. His family indicates horses who race as far as 9 furlongs but being by Hernando he has no stamina worries. He does have natural speed and another Coolmore manipulation may leave him flat footed. However on a firm ground he just seems superior to the rest. The only horse in the race who looks like becoming a serious Group 1 candidate for the season onwards.
Doctor Fremantle – The 2YO form is blossoming after Look Here’s win yesterday. He ran a superb seasonal debut in the Newmarket Class 3 and there will not be a more fitter, hardened up ready horse for the Derby than him. The tempo was seriously genuine in the Chester Vase and he was punched out with plenty remaining to win. The only concern is form – none of those Vase runners are here.
Frozen Fire – Good in the Dante – not much else to speak of. Always a little hesitant of the Montjeus and that’s probably where I rule a line. I also think he would be stronger and resilient in softer going. The Dante trend of no also-ran winning the Derby also casts a shadow.
Kandahar Run – Unknown quantity apparently working the house down at HQ. Couldn’t settle when beaten by Campanologist on seasonal debut and his Newmarket Stakes win was insignificant. The market would have to be a guide and in early proceedings it seems to have done exactly that. Plenty against him though.
King Of Rome – Another very mysterious prospect with great signs at home of being right in the mix here. He’s probably after firmer ground than the Ballysax and definitely improved at Lingfield. I don’t think he appreciated the Lingfield turn and that leaves grave doubts when at Epsom. Some say he could become a St Leger type but his dam’s side includes a family of Bertolini and Green Desert. He should be one at odds.
Tartan Bearer – Must be continuing to mature and improve in ability as every day goes by considering he broke his Maiden on April 26 and won the Dante 3 weeks later. In that final furlong the field really spread themselves out which leads me to believe that this guy, plus Frozen Fire, are head and shoulders above and to 12 furlongs will only get better.
Verdict
Sir Michael Stoute holds aces and will only be beaten by a bluffing performance from Coolmore. It comes down to three for mine:
Casual Conquest
Doctor Fremantle
Tartan BearerI don’t think a loss from Casual Conquest will do his credentials any harm – it’s only his third start. Taking a St Jovite approach again here. He’ll be a serious horse down the track no doubt.
That leaves two. Tartan Bearer has the illustrious Dante win and Doctor Fremantle holds the important element of proven stamina. Tartan Bearer will not be swept up by any Coolmore manipulation and holds a very prominent and experienced Epsom hoop in Ryan Moore.
But Doctor Fremantle is being handled by a world class jockey as well in Kerrin McEvoy with those important runs on the board. He may end up becoming a St Leger type though.
Selection: Tartan Bearer
Outsider: King Of Rome
There is a good deal of "significant support" for Tartan Bearer and some of the bookmakers reps are suggesting he could well go off favourite.
Coral are reporting a "near complete lack of support" for New Approach.
Why, whenever I think I’ve hit upon a 25/1 shot with a great chance, does bloody Segal go and put it up too – I’ll jump ship to Strike Up The Band I think.
The clerk of the course at Epsom seemed to think that ground on the fast side of good was entirely possible were the fine weather to continue throughout this morning, so could we see New Approach actually taken back out of the race?
After yesterday’s Coronation antics I’m struggling to work out just how the race will be run which, from a betting point of view, is incredibly irritating. I’ll obviously stick with my 16/1 and 250/1 shots, but how do people see the racing playing out?
Why, whenever I think I’ve hit upon a 25/1 shot with a great chance, does bloody Segal go and put it up too – I’ll jump ship to Strike Up The Band I think.
The clerk of the course at Epsom seemed to think that ground on the fast side of good was entirely possible were the fine weather to continue throughout this morning, so could we see New Approach actually taken back out of the race?
After yesterday’s Coronation antics I’m struggling to work out just how the race will be run which, from a betting point of view, is incredibly irritating. I’ll obviously stick with my 16/1 and 250/1 shots, but how do people see the racing playing out?
Well it’ll be a true run race thats for sure its not going to be steady and won by a horse that doesn’t truely stay.
Hopefully the rages like Maidstone Mixture will stay at the back out the way.
I’d be amazed if one of the O’Brien team doesn’t either force the pace or at least ensure by presense that there is no hanging about. Aidan has a number of runners and he’s not going to want a crawl for his stayers. Bashkirov is all stamina by breeding I’d nominate him to be very much to the fore.
Tartan Bearer and Curtain Call I’d expect to sit just off the pace. Neither should have a worry stamina wise so I can’t see them being excessively held up so too probably King Of Rome. Tajawwed I’d expect to be held up a little more than those two, so too Casual Conquest as both are the type that have an obvious change of gear. Maybe they’ll race Casual Conquest a bit handier? Kandahar Run I expect will be held up, so too Dr Fremantle and Rio De La Plata.
Thats what I expect, we shall see.
Not certain what New Approach and Frozen Fire will be asked to do.
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