Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[sporting sam]

I’ve been following this thread regularly Rob and am very impressed.

Whilst I’m very much in watching brief mode with racing at the moment, I derive a great deal of enjoyment from your enlightened approach to handicapping.
Keep it up and thanks again.

[robnorth]

Thursday July 9

Newmarket
12.45
Woven 116
Highland Dress 115
El Hombre 115
Breath Of air 115

1.15
Almufti 103
Lawn Ranger 99
Ginger fox 99

3.35
Golden Dragon 123
Dancin Inthestreet 117
Spanish Angel 116

York
12.55
Sweet Celebration 100
Gabrial The One 100
Sweet Dime 100

5.20
Universal Gleam 116
Silent Attack 114
Irreverent 113

[robnorth]

Thanks sporting sam, I’m glad that readers are enjoying this thread. From my point of view it’s an interesting exercise doing the calculations and seeing good opportunities revealed, some of which are not always obvious from a scan of the form.

Pressed for time for the next few days due to domestic commitments (major house renovation) but will post Friday/Saturday figures this evening. Few qualifying races Sunday/Monday so that should take the pressure off.

I’ll try to give a brief explanation of the ratings method some time soon. That said, given how well results have been going, I’m not sure I’d want to give away too many trade secrets!

[robnorth]

A blank today which was a day that promised to be difficult and duly lived down to expectations. I’m slightly concerned when there are horses that haven’t run in handicaps and two won today at 100/1 and 40/1. I’ll omit any races where a significant percentage don’t have handicap form.

Two days worth of ratings in this post:

FRIDAY JULY 10

Market Rasen
2.05 Red Force One 164; Ingleby Hollow 163; Siannes Star 152
2.40 Potterman 165; Knockgraffon 164; Solomon Grey 160

Newmarket (amended 12:00 Friday for non-runners)
12.45 Lomu 103; Celsius 102; Junius Brutus 101;
1.50 Presidential 101; Candelisa 98; Revich 96
3.00 Dubai Horizon 119; Ernesto 118; Dubai Future 117; Ghostwatch 117; Reshoun 117
3.35 Global Storm 111; Grand Rock 110; Kipps 108

SATURDAY JULY 11

Newmarket
12.10 Sherpa Trail 113; Medal Winner 109; Frontispiece 107
1.50 Ziggle Pops 122; Finest Sound 114; Into Faith 112
4.10 Keyser Soze 121; Mutamaasik 117; Blown By Wind 116

Ascot
1.30 Apparate 116; Baasem 106; Calling The Wind 106
2.40 Summit Reach 109; Carlos Felix 106; Celestran 102
3.50 Benny And The Jets 115; Justanotherbottle 112; Lahore 111

Newcastle
7.00 Aljari 105; Magical Spirit 104; Edraak 104
8.00 Sleeping Lion 110; Anyonecanhaveitall 107; Ajman Prince 105

[robnorth]

A struggle today but Red Force One obliged at 5/1 which meant break even on the day overall and with the 2nd rated coming out he boosted the figures for those ‘at least 5lbs clear top’. Presidential wasn’t far away at the finish but never quite looked like winning.

It seemed to be drying a bit at Newmarket so hopefully not so many non-runners. I’ll updated tomorrow morning if there are significant withdrawals amongst the high rated horses.

[robnorth]

A couple of tweaks to the ratings following announcement of non-runners. Hopefully won’t be too many more as ground is drying.

SATURDAY JULY 11

Newmarket
12.10 Medal Winner 109; Frontispiece 107; Future Investment 106
1.50 Finest Sound 114; Into Faith 112; Dogged 108
4.10 Keyser Soze 121; Mutamaasik 117; Blown By Wind 116

Ascot
1.30 Apparate 116; Baasem 106; Calling The Wind 106
2.40 Summit Reach 109; Carlos Felix 106; Celestran 102
3.50 Benny And The Jets 115; Justanotherbottle 112; Lahore 111

Newcastle
7.00 Aljari 105; Magical Spirit 104; Edraak 104
8.00 Sleeping Lion 110; Anyonecanhaveitall 107; Ajman Prince 105

As will be be aware I am wary of horses that haven’t run in a handicap, more so when operating at this upper level. Interesting one from that point of in the 12:10 at Newmarket is YURI GAGARIN who really could be decent. Presumably a late developer, he has won both races and had any amount in hand in his last win.

[robnorth]

One winner today, Aljari winning at Newcastle at the surprisingly generous odds of 7/1. A couple of winners amongst the lower rated, Carlos Felix at 9/4 (looks potentially very useful) and Calling The Wind at the belting price of 40/1.

Results to date:

All top rated (including joint)
Selections 151 Wins 25 Returns 226.54

Top 5lbs clear:
Selections 37 Wins 9 Returns 80.40

A fairly quiet few days with not more than 1 or 2 qualifying races each day this week.

SUNDAY JULY 12

BANGOR
3.45

Elysees 148
Moabit 144
Wells De Lune 144

Elysees had one hurdles run last year and pulled up when I suspect he had an injury. Bounced back recently to win on the flat so in form and has a strong chance on his best hurdles form.

[robnorth]

Elysees didn’t threaten today.

Generally a quiet week coming up, a couple of qualifying races tomorrow do provide interesting possibilities.

Monday July 13

Windsor
1.35 Magical Ride 110; Aljady 107; Monareb 104

Kempton
7.15 Dazzling Rock 115; Technological 107; Volcanic Sky 100; Quloob 100

The latter contest looks full of generally exposed performers. The top rated seems to have a strong chance.

[robnorth]

A couple of winners from the supporting cast today, Aljady at 9/2 and Volcanic Sky 5/2.

TUESDAY JULY 14

1.20
Knockrobin 143
New Quay 142
As You Like 138

2.55
Jacks Last Hope 154
Rhythm Is A Dancer 151
Hattaab 139
In addition to the above Soupy Soups has a chase rating of 156 but no recent hurdles form.

[robnorth]

Winners from the supporting cast in both races yesterday at 4/1 and 2/1. Jacks Last Hope best top rated second at 11/1 with top three rated filling first 3 places. Trifecta paid £77.80 for anyone doing perms.

Two qualifying races to day but the one at Yarmouth has a few with no handicap form.

Kempton 6.45
Allegiant 94 is top rated from a whole host on 92 to 90, so a tight race.

Sorry to be brief but we are in middle of home renovation so fortunate to be able to calculate any figures. Have done Thursday figures so they should be up tonight (With Hamilton ‘Fair Friday held on a Thursday Meeting’ among others) and no qualifying races on Friday. Painters should be away by then so I can sit down and work out Saturday and Sunday figures!

[robnorth]

Results after Tuesday July 14:

All top rated (including joint)
Selections 156 Wins 25 Returns 226.54

Top 5lbs+ clear:
Selections 38 Wins 9 Returns 80.40

Ticking over in recent days but still well in front and a few near misses.

[robnorth]

Thursday July 16

Hamilton
2.00 Meraas 106; Cold Stare 102; George Bowen 101

Sandown
4.55 Mokaatil 102; Royal Birth 99; Konchek 97

[robnorth]

Nice winner at Hamilton today, Meraas 9/4. A progressive type going forward.

Mokaatil 3rd 15/2 and Konchek 2nd 3/1 at Sandown.

No qualifying races tomorrow gives a rare blank day.

[robnorth]

SATURDAY JULY 18

Fairly quiet by the standard of normal Saturdays.

York
2.30 Sinjaari 125; Afaak 120; What’s The Story 119
3.40 Where’s Jeff 95; Arctic Fox 95; Mayfair Spirit 93
4.10 Only Spoofing 90; Fendale 90; North Wind 89; Highly Sprung 89; Roundhay Park 89
Most of these look in the handicapper’s pocket, 8 more rated within 3lbs!

Newbury
2.50 Huboor 112; Festive Star 94; Tomorrow’s Dream 93
A couple haven’t run in a handicap, but Huboor looks a shoo-in if she can get near to recent form.
7.55 Al Erayg 105; Club Wexford 104; Hortzadar 103

[robnorth]

A decent winner in Sinjaari at 11/1, Fendale was 3rd at 33/1 and got the first 3 in the 2.50 at Newbury…, but in the wrong order! Al Erayg was 3rd at 20/1 at Haydock, but well held by winner Qaysar who I backed when it lost at Sandown last time!

SUNDAY JULY 19

York
2.30 Mighty Spirit 125; Acclaim The Nation 113; Jabbarockie 111
3.35 Ulshaw Bridge 95; King’s Slipper 93; Aces 91
4.10 Documenting 110; Fastman 110; Boy In The Bar 100

Newbury
2.15 Silent Echo 112; Highland Dress 107; Nahaarr 106
4.00 Carnwennan 116; Themaxwecan 113; Just Hubert 113
4.30 Point In Time 90; Chicago Doll 87; Sweet Celebration 87

Southwell
2.05 Shoal Bay 127; Elkstone 127; Romanor 127
2.40 Croco Bay 161; Hatcher 158; Fanzio 143

[robnorth]

Nice wins from joint-top Documenting at 10/1 and Shoal Bay at 7/1 today to keep the profits rolling.

Top Rated (including joint)
Selections 176 Wins 29 Returns 260.79

5lbs or more clear:
Selections 42 Wins 10 Returns 92.40

Impressive profits which might calm down a bit over a period of time, but a suggestion that I’m throwing up selections that have merit but aren’t obvious to the market.

MONDAY JULY 20

Market Rasen
1.40 Vice Et Vertu 143; Coup De Pinceau 142; Vendredi Trois 140
2.10 Demi Sang 129; Evreu De Boulay 127; Western Rules 126; Jimmy Rabbitte 126

Windsor
7.00 Flippa The Strippa 99; Daschas 98; Glamorous Anna 93
Top rated Flippa The Strippa won a couple at 5 furlongs as a two-year-old and was then campaigned rather ambitiously. Down the field in the hot contest won by Art Power at Royal Ascot, she is now down at a more realistic level and fast conditions will suit.

[robnorth]

Vice Et Vertu ran a decent race but held in second at 13/2. Flippa The Strippa a non-runner and Daschas made not impression though 2nd rated Glamorous Anna was the winner at 13/2.

Top Rated (including joint)
Selections 179 Wins 29 (16.2%) Returns 260.79 (145.7%)

5lbs or more clear:
Selections 42 Wins 10 (23.8%) Returns 92.40 (220.0%)

TUESDAY JULY 21

Stratford
3.00 Beyond The Clouds 165; Innocent Touch 147; Cubswin 145; Beach Break 145
Top rated didn’t run over jumps last season after being a sharp novice in 17/18, but did have a flat campaign last year so worth a chance as he’s a good deal better than these at best

Perth
6.20 Clever As A Fox 126; Ardera Cross 122; Dolly Dancer 120
A poor representation for a Class 2. With Wolfcatcher a non-runner this looks a penalty kick for the top rated, though from a local point if view it would be pleasing if Willie Young landed it with Ardera Cross.

Sandown
6.40 Enemy 116; It’s Good To Laugh 102; Bronze River 102
7.45 Platitude 109; Diocletian 108; Amazing Red 107; Kaloor 107

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