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Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

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  • #1494628
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    Clever As A Fox obliged at 4/6. Beyond The Clouds ran second to Cubswin who was a 3rd top rated at 10/1 and Platitude was 2nd at 12/1.

    Just the one race tomorrow…

    WEDNESDAY JULY 22

    BATH
    2.40 Motagally 95; Tin Hat 95; Amplify 93; Wild Edric 93
    A tight contest with the first seven in with a reasonable on the figures. Please feel free to say “Ya boo!” should Red Alert win as he seems out of it… Further to that I note that Red Alert is 21113 At Bath. Make that all 8 with a chance!

    #1494713
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    Turned a profit today backing the two joints with Motagally winning very nicely at 9/4 in the fashion of an animal that will progress if sticking to quick ground.

    THURSDAY JULY 23

    UTTOXETER
    3.10 De Plotting Shed 156; Mercian Prince 155; Ronaya 153

    PONTEFRACT
    2.50 Saluti 97; Bossipop 92; Peggie Sue 88

    SANDOWN
    7.00 Stag Horn 105; Camouflaged 98; Thai Power 98

    #1494779
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    Saluti obliged at 10/3 to keep us on the right side today.

    FRIDAY JULY 24

    Newmarket
    2.15 Nugget 99; He’s A Keeper 98; Yes My boy 96

    Newton Abbot
    6.35 Kentford Heiress 135; Percy Street 134; Capital Force 132
    7.35 Flying Verse 128; Mr Mafia 127; Soldier Of Love 124

    Ripon
    6.25 Dark Defender 100; Muscika 96; Makyan 94
    7.25 The Trader 108; Al Muffrih 106; Spanish Archer 106; Glencadam Glory 196

    #1494868
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    Nugget won at 10/11, the only top rated winner but Dark Defender was 3rd at 22/1 and there were a couple of winners at 11/10 and 14/1 from lower rated in top 3.

    SATURDAY JULY 25

    York
    2.05 Black Lotus 94; Earth And Sky 91; Dawaameen 88
    3.15 Silent Attack 118; Al Erayg 107; Hartswood 105

    Newmarket
    1.05 Broughtons Gold 112; Troubador 110; Illusionist 108; Triple Spear 108
    2.15 Star In The Making 96; Odyssey Girl 95; Hunni 90
    4.00 Ironclad 104; Nicklaus 103; Breath Caught 101
    5.10 Charlie D 104; Sexy Beast 104; Baasem 102

    Ascot
    2.25 Blackheath 119; Cold Stare 117; Arbalet 117
    3.00 Great Ambassador 120; Dance Fever 108; Ayr Harbour 106
    4.10 Arabist 104; Look Closely 102; Western Duke 95
    5.20 Young Merlin 105; Cosmelli 101; Scaramanga 97

    #1495051
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    I wasn’t particularly confident of today’s selections and results lived down to expectations. Winners from Hartswood and Look Closely were the only glimmers form the 2nd and 3rds.

    SUNDAY JULY 26

    York
    2.10 Right Action 110; Reeves 105; Tintoretto 105
    2.45 Jonah Jones 106; Soldier’s Minute 102; George Bowen 102; Muscika 102

    Ascot
    1.55 Tone The Barone 113; Mountain Peak 109; Konchek 107
    2.30 Almania 109; Sam Cooke 109; Jeremiah 108; Mandarin 108
    4.15 Ziggle Pops 108; Adelante 104; Love Dreams 95

    Cartmel
    3.10 Fort DE L’ocean 123; Lucky Robin 122; Licklighter 119

    #1495121
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    Back amongst the winners today with a smooth win from Tone The Barone 18/1 (Betfair SP 26.0). Progressive on the all-weather it seemed to me he was only such long odds because he had run down the field at Royal Ascot but this was good deal easier and he cut through the field in the final two furlongs.

    Fort De L’Ocean won at Cartmel at 5/2 and Sam Cooke was only denied in a pulsating head bobbing finish by Jermeiah who was rated only 1lb less.

    Top rated (including Joints)
    Selections 210 Wins 35 Returns(SP) 294.45
    5lbs or more clear
    Selections 49 Wins 11 Returns(SP) 96.73

    Focus back on National Hunt tomorrow:

    MONDAY JULY 27

    Market Rasen
    1.55 Gelboe De Chaney 131; Siannes Star 130; Brandon Castle 129
    2.30 Theclockisticking 151; That’s A Given 147; Ballyhome 145; Mason Jar 145

    Betfair returns would look pretty impressive, particularly as the ratings throw up a few double figure winners but I haven’t checked in any detail. As an aside, no comment has been made about industry SPs returned but they have seemed to me to be very fair over the last two months, and arguably a better measure of the whole market.

    #1495253
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    Nothing from the top rated, only Brandon Castle at 2/1 made an impact from Top 3.

    TUESDAY JULY 28

    Goodwood
    1.10 Separate 106; Tomorrow’s Dream 98; Queen Of Silca 98
    1.45 Walkinginthesand 124; Wargrave 124; Bell Rock 121
    3.45 Ornate 115; Final Venture 115; Celsius 110; Only Spoofing 110
    4.55 Sly Minx 98; Chartered 91; Torbellino 90

    Ayr
    3.30 Five Helmets 106; Ironclad 99; Storm Ahead 97

    Generally long shots top rated to open the Goodwood action.
    Separate looks interesting in the first though, gradually coming to herself this season and lowered in class after a couple of fair efforts in Listed company.
    I don’t mind top weights at Goodwood and Walkinthesand might potentially make class tell. Wargrave comes out top once again, after being mulish at the stalls at Epsom. At his best distance and it’s his St Moritz win that keeps him up top, all that’s needed out is a bit of snow at Goodwood overnight…
    Ornate has every chance at best but isn’t particularly consistent.
    Five Helmets really interests me and could be best of the day, assuming he has come on for his first outing of the season. Trainer generally gets the best out of his charges from 4 years onwards.

    #1495433
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    Generally tilting at windmills with today’s top rated selection though there was a notable 3rd place at 50/1 for Five Helmets at Ayr. Chance of a high priced win is gone but I suspect this one will land a similar race before long. In general ‘Scobie’ Jardine’s runners have taken a while to warm up this season so expect further progression.

    First race at Goodwood wasn’t too bad with a 2nd rated winner at 11/2 and 3rd rated filling third place at 25/1. Later on the card joint 3rd rated Only Spoofing won at 14/1.

    Wargrave is finally consumed to the metaphorical bin after a quirky performance at Goodwood. Unruly at the stalls 9again), fly jumped out of them, pulled hard, rushed up to go prominent then weakened from three out. Maybe needs saving for the snow at St Moritz next February where his desperation to lead is presumably an advantage.

    WEDNESDAY JULY 29

    Goodwood
    1.10 Waliyak 113; Geetanjali 111; Dean Street Doll 110
    1.45 Mukha Magic 120; Smart Champion 116; Author’s Dream 114
    2.15 King’s Caper 113; A Star Above 108; Glenties 107
    4.20 Kondratiev Wave 112; Toro Strike 110; Verboten 110

    Bangor
    2.30 Imada 150; Ennistown 146; Red Giant 144

    Thirsk
    6.00 Admirality 100; Lincoln Park 92; Shared Belief 92
    6.30 Custodian 101; Hortzadar 99; Fennaan 98

    Best best of the day looks to be Admirality at Thirsk, the dream ticket of an in-form Roger Fell horse making a quick return. At his best a class 2 performer so this looks solidly within his compass.

    Mukha Magic is interesting at Goodwood on the basis of an excellent effort over the extended distance of the Queen Alexandra at Ascot.

    The 4.20 at Goodwood has 3 three-year-olds 9lbs and more clear of the the remainder, the big question being whether the form behind Khaloosy holds together as this is how they gain a lofty figure.

    #1495635
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    Returns from jum pracing have been promising to date and an easy winner at Bangor today in Imada at 15/2 and a few places from others. Admirality when just done close home at Thirsk.

    A couple of nurseries tomorrow but this method steers clear of them.

    THURSDAY JULY 30

    Goodwood
    1.10 Flippa the Strippa 110; Caspian Queen 104; Spanish Angel 100
    1.45 Lucander 116; Bright Melody 114; Group One Power 112; Note Bleu 112

    Southwell
    1.00 One Forty Seven 150; Canton Prince 148; Lucca Lady 138
    2.30 Constancio 151; Cervaro Mix 149; Fiesole 145; Highly Prized 145

    Musselburgh
    6.30 Militia 88; Lomu 87; Royal Brave 82

    Nothing that really grabs me a strong selection, but sometimes the apparently quiet ones do the business.

    #1495800
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    The ‘quiet day’ duly delivered, One forty Seven obliging nicely at 10/1 and then Militia doing the business at 3/1. Lucander was withdrawn not inclined to enter the stalls, so two top rated winners from 4 on the day and jump returns continue on an upward curve.

    Just the 3 qualifying races tomorrow.

    FRIDAY JULY 31

    Goodwood
    1.10 Celestran 102; First Impression 101; Summit Reach 100
    2.45 Fox Premier 119; Blown By Wind 118; Cliffs Of Capri 117

    Pontefract
    3.25 Where’s Jeff 92; Groveman 90; Dream With Me 89

    #1495923
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    Not near a winner today but only three races so no serious damage to finances.

    SATURDAY AUGUST 1

    Newmarket
    1.30 Dutch Painting 95; Casual Reply 87; Freyja 79
    2.40 Rosadora 109; Stone Circle 98; Rodin 98
    4.25 Natty Night 96; Zuba 93; Make Haste Slowly 89

    Goodwood
    1.50 Tommy G 101; Spirited Guest 100; Highly Sprung 96
    2.25 Shailene 117; Mordred 114; Laafy 112
    3.35 I Am A Dreamer 121; Wedding Date 120; Venturous 118; Swindler 117; Lexington Dash 117; Brian The Snail 117
    4.10 Tomfre 115; Manigordo 113; Corvair 113
    5.10 Overwrite 106; Streak Lightning 102; Sword Beach 97

    Rather like the top two at long odds in the Stewards Cup as I can find a few reasons why they might run better than odds suggest.

    #1496095
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    Natty Night was the one top rated winner on the day at 7/2.

    First shot from Newmarket on ITV before the 2.40 was of Rosadora heading riderless back towards the stands and she was duly withdrawn. When recording results on this thread a withdrawn top rated means no selection in that race unless there are joint top rated.

    From the Stewards Cup list of 6 best were Brian The Snail 3rd at 66/1 and Swindler 4th at 12/1. Near misses at good wood from Shailene at 14/1 and Overwrite at 9/2, but the meeting was a great disappointment. Returns were positive for the week only because of winners elsewhere.

    SUNDAY AUGUST 2

    Newcastle
    3.25 Dark Jedi 107; Archie Perkins 107; Mutasaamy 104

    Leicester
    4.10 Byline 98; Badri 98; Musicality 92

    #1496182
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    A ‘turn a profit day’ today with Byline a winner at 100/30. Archie Perkins was a non-runner, after my mistaken obsession with that one on a couple of competition threads yesterday.

    Not a huge amount of action before the weekend, though on Saturday Class 2 and 3 handicaps dominate, but a few races tomorrow tomorrow to keep things ticking over.

    MONDAY AUGUST 3

    Haydock
    3.15 Makanah 106; Jabbarockie 103; Arecibo 102; Aplomb 102

    Windsor
    5.40 Walk On Walter 115; Spirit Of May 111; Second collection 111
    6.15 Wild Edric 99; Just Glamorous 99; Wonderwork 96; Spoof 96

    Updated Results

    Top Rated (including joints)
    Selections 242 Wins 40 Returns 326.78

    5lbs or more clear
    Selections 57 Wins 11 Returns 96.73

    #1496243
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    No winners from top rated today, Wonderwork was a winner from the lesser rates.

    No qualifying races on Tuesday August 4.

    #1496378
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    Was busy last couple of days so didn’t get a chance to work out figures for Newton Abbot today.

    Four races to rate tomorrow then 2 on Friday before a bumper batch of Class 2 and 3 Handicaps on Saturday.

    THURSDAY AUGUST 6

    Ripon
    1.15 Wentworth Falls 101; True Mason 96; Bossipop 96

    Bath
    4.40 Dubai Instinct 98; Just the Man 94; Renardeau 92

    Stratford
    5.20 Tsundoku 134; See The sea 125; Green Or Black 123
    7.20 More Buck’s 151; King Alfonso 147; Fidux 146

    #1496466
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    No success yesterday and a couple of small fields contests today where ratings oppose the favourites.

    Friday August 7
    Sandown
    3.30 Kingbrook 108; Native Tribe 102; Enemy 97
    4.05 Margaret Dumont 101; Dancing Holly 99; Oleksander 96

    Stacks of action tomorrow but thankfully got stuck into the figures early and only a couple of races left to complete.

    #1496530
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    No winners at Sandown today, and no top rated winners since Sunday, but that’s only 11 races and that’s not a serious losing run when you are dealing with a win rate of around 15%.

    Busy day tomorrow and there are a few with a decent advantage.

    SATURDAY AUGUST 8

    Haydock
    1.30 Dubai Mirage 115; Red Bond 99; Sha La La La Lee 96
    3.50 Northernpowerhouse 94; Sermon 94; Dutch Decoy 91
    4.25 Sound Of Iona 94; Betsey Trotter 89; She Can Boogie 89

    Ascot
    1.50 Chil Chil 107; Equiano Springs 106; Highland Dress 102; Equitation 102; Will To Win 102; Hamish Macbeth 102
    2.25 Cap Francais 115; Ejtilaab 111; Hateya 110
    3.00 Island Brave 111; Holy Kingdom 110; Mondain 110
    3.35 Hyanna 120; Omnivega 112; Medal Winner 111; Kyllachy Gala 111
    4.10 Orczy 106; Bronze River 104; Wise Glory 101

    Newmarket
    4.00 Fox Champion 103; Royal Marine 98; Tomfre 107
    4.35 Ajax Tavern 115; Evening Sun 114; Toronto 111
    5.10 Harrovian 105; Cognac 102; Data Protection 93
    5.40 Mouriyani 98; Dazzling Rock 97; Horatio Star 88

    Uttoxeter
    6.00 Justatenner 150; Shantou Village 136; Yes No Maybe So 134
    8.00 Teqany 144; Gateway To Europe 143; John Constable 141

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