Ratings Method – Dusted Off!

[robnorth]

Today’s event was never one to get involved in. The top rated was non-runner along with 5 others and the 4 joint rated occupied 4th to 7th places! The winner Barbill was stone last on recent from though the base rating on overall form had it top rated. A right old trap of a race!

One race tomorrow.

Doncaster
3.55
Away He Goes 111
Tricorn 110
Elector 106

[robnorth]

SATURDAY JUNE 27

Redcar
2.50
Gallipoli 108
Triple Distilled 107
Star Shield 97

Newcastle
1.15
Gabrial The Saint 117
Concierge 114
Gunmetal 110

2.25
El Hombre 114
Copper Knight 111
Caspian Prince 111

3.35
Collide 123
Rajinsky 121
Carnwennan 116

Progressive type Rajinsky is my selection for this race. Analysis post in the Northumberland Plate thread under Big Races Forum.

4.10
Contrebasse 91
Al Kout 90
Firlinfeu 87

Newmarket
1.30
Blown By Wind 118
Mohareb 111
Arbalet 111

3.50
Al Maysan 93
Glenties 93
Nugget 91
Fruition 91

A couple of races at Newmarket don’t have enough handicap form and course is at the mercy of possible thunder storms so I will tread warily at that track.

[robnorth]

Gallipoli did the ratings proud today, obliging at 28/1. Shows the potential of a method which flings up well treated outsiders though at those prices a bit of patience is required. Joint-rated Al Maysan won at 10/3 to add a bit more to the profit on the top rates. 2nd top-rated Caspian Prince obliged at 28/1, a nice one for those who like to play ‘three against the field’.

Selections 79 Wins 13 (16.5%) Returns 113.57pts (143.7%)

These returns will zoom up and down I suspect given the area of operation but that’s very pleasing from almost a month’s worth of selections.

A fair bit of decent handicap action on SUNDAY JUNE 28:

Windsor
1.55
Charles Molson 100
Arcanada 100
A Sure Welcome 96

3.35
Sun Power 116
Overwrite 115
Sword Beach 111

Newmarket
1.35
Alfred Boucher 109
Ambassadorial 107
Gin Palace 104

3.20
Ascension 102
Buhturi 101
Monoski 93

3.55
Desert Icon 118
Elwazir 112
Wait Forever 108

5.00
Island Brave 111
Charlie D 111
Platitude 110

[robnorth]

The results were very pleasing today, perhaps a reflection of form beginning to settle. top rated Desert Icon won convincingly at 11/8 while joint top Arcanada (18/1) and Charlie D (18/5) were also winners. Add to that winners from the top 3 in Gin Palace at 8/1 and Overwrite at 11/5 and it was a good day.

Action at Class 3 level or better eases off after a busy weekend but three races to keep us interested tomorrow:

MONDAY JUNE 29

Yarmouth
2.30
Burford Brown 105
Blonde Warrior 104
Pennywhistle 101

Windsor
3.20
Electric Ladyland 118
Will To Win 109
Bettys Hope 105
Much easier than Ascot assignment for the top rated, and this sharper track should suit.

5.20
Wargrave 116
Severance 113
Bella Vita 112
After 10 furlongs on the snow and then a mile in the the Hunt Cup it’s up to 11.5 furlongs in this event.

[robnorth]

A nice winner in Electric Ladyland. Clear top rated off competing in a tough race at Ascot and showed the determination evident from the win at Goodwood. Right sort of performer to have on your side and won this at rewarding price of 17/2.

The closing event at Windsor turned into a bit of a farce, with only three runners left due to quickening ground, and Severance the odds-on favourite beaten into second.

The two seasonal newcomers at Yarmouth, Burford Brown and Blonde Warrior ran well enough to put an edge on them and are worth keeping an eye on.

Top Rated Results to date:

Selections 90 Wins 17 Returns 148.04pts

One race tomorrow Tuesday June 30:

Doncaster
2.00
Athollblair Boy 103
Muscika 101
Admirality 100

Of these three, I rather fancy Admirality who ran a succession of decent races last year at Class 2 level and is dropped a grade here. Opening run since return should have brought him on.

[Venture to Cognac]

This is running very smoothly Rob, well done.

[robnorth]

Thanks VtC, results have been very encouraging. Did myself a big favour sticking to Class 3 or better. Form is more reliable and it gives me a manageable number of races with the odd day off.

All the top three today ran quite well but we just missed out with Muscika 2nd at 11/1. Athollblair Boy ran well and threatened to reward my small interest at 70 on Betfair but was run out of it in the final furlong. Certainly one that might pop in at a price some time soon.

National Hunt starts tomorrow but I’ll leave betting no the jumps for a few weeks.

Southwell
12.35
Cracking Destiny 144
Fort De L’Ocean 144
Isaac Wonder 143

3.10
Oscar Rose 159
Rhythm Is A Dancer 157
Theatrebar 155

3.40
Gateway To Europe 149
Beeno 148
Empreinte Reconce 148

Musselburgh
2.20
Asdaa 108
Rux Ruxx 104
Muntadab 100

Kempton
7.15
Space Walk 109
Point in Time 109
Dont Give Up 104

[robnorth]

One winner from top three in each race, Isaac Wonder at 12/1. This sort of winner suits my 3 against the field on Betfair, but no bet today on the first day over the jumps. Hunters Call would have been about 20lbs clear on his ‘latest form’ but that was 900 odd days ago so no way could I have included that! Stable was on fire though, and 13/2 price suggested there was no confidence of a good showing.

No qualifying races tomorrow bar a 0-90 at Bellewstown and there’s no enough Irish form at that level to get involved yet. Having been to Bellewstown I’m curious to know how they will run it behind closed doors as it’s basically the village green! Lovely course though and worth a visit once we say cheerio to this damned virus.

Results to date

Selections 98 Wins 17 Returns 148.04 pts

Not far short of target 20% winners and any profit at industry SP is welcome. I bet almost solely on Betfair so looking to make a killing on the fancy priced ones.

[robnorth]

Thought I’d drawn a blank on my flat bets today, but turned out I accidentally bet on the Place market at Kempton! Didn’t make a profit, but Space Walk placed and cut my losses!

[robnorth]

FRIDAY JULY 3

A couple of races at Hamilton but there’s heavy rain forecast which may mean a non-runner or two.

4.50
King Of Tonga 100
Al Qahwa 95
Knighted 94

5.20
Redama 101
Storm Ahead 96
Star Shield 95

[robnorth]

A near miss with Redarna (read the ‘rn’ as an ‘m’ yesterday!) 2nd at 28/1. HOLD ON…, winner weighed in light so Redarna is promoted to winner at 28/1!

A succession of fiendish looking contests over the weekend, and Epsom is not my favourite course, but here are the first set of ratings.

SATURDAY JULY 4

Epsom
3.00
Wargrave 117
Plantadream 117
Mr Scaramanga 117
Sherpa Trail 117
Wargrave shows up prominently once again and it will be interesting to see if the quirky 10 furlongs is what he needs! These four are 6lbs clear of the remainder.

5.35
Hateya 108
Magical Wish 108
Count Otto 108

Haydock
2.40
Raydiance 111
Kryptos 107
You’re Fired 107

4.25
Golden Sandbanks 106
Zegalo 103
Luigi Vampa 100
Wary here as a few haven’t run in a handicap.

Chelmsford
4.35
Owney Madden 110
One Night Stand 110
Never Dark 109

6.10
Afraid Of Nothing 99
Odyssey Girl 99
Lethal Talent 98

Yarmouth
7.25
World Title 112
Rovaniemi 102
Oslo 100
Once again I’m a little wary as 2 of the 6 haven’t run in a handicap.

[robnorth]

Wasn’t looking a great day until Afraid Of Nothing obliged at 17/2 for the one winner on the day. Count Otto was 2nd at Epsom at 16/1. The last at Yarmouth was 1st and 2nd for the two horses that hadn’t run in a handicap which is a sign that it’s best to be wary of 3yo handicaps until there’s sufficient form in the book.

Wargrave was withdrawn and promises to plague this thread with a high rating for at least one more run, assuming he passes the stalls test.

Results:

Selections: 112 Wins: 19 Returns: 186.54pts
I haven’t checked but returns at Betfair SP would likely be quite impressive.

Plenty action tomorrow:

SUNDAY JULY 5

Haydock
12.30
Lover Powerful 105
Never In Paris 102
Dark Regard 100

2.05
To Nathaniel 111
Subjectivist 107
Dark Heart 107
Duke Of Condicote 107

3.15
Hochfeld 118
Euchen Glen 113
Spanish Archer 113

3.50
Get Knotted 114
Greenside 112
King Of Tonga 112

Sandown
3.30
Qaysar 116
Montatham 114
Zwayyan 112

4.35
Bella Vita 105
Be More 104
Dean Street Doll 94

5.10
Shared Belief 108
Alben Spirit 108
Indian Creak 104

Doncaster
2.50
Harrison Point 114
Embolden 110
Society Lion 104

4.00
Ginger Jam 112
Zamjar 108
Broken Spear 105

[robnorth]

A non runner in the Old Newton Cup which brings in new joint 3rd rated:

Haydock 3.15

Hochfeld 118
Euchen Glen 113
Ranch Hand 112
Frankuus 12

My own betting commitment is split between the top-rated Hochfeld, and a Betfair £5 freebie on Anythingtoday who is a pound or two short of the leading ratings but whose form at Doncaster looks rock solid.

Ratings kicked off today with a 17/2 winner in the 12.30 at Haydock in Love Powerful. With solid distance form in the book this season and now in fillies only company, she looked no worse than a 3/1 chance to me in a 7 runner race yet I managed 9/1 after commission on Betfair. If I could back those every day I’d be laughing all the way to the bank.

[robnorth]

Two winners today, Love Powerful at 17/2 and Greenside at 3/1 (Get Knotted non-runner). A couple of winners at 4/1 and 6/5 from the ‘supporting cast’.

Although favourite Greenside’s win illustrates the counter-intuitive approach of following the figures. He’s a 9-year-old that hadn’t won over the distance, a horse I would previously have overlooked.

MONDAY JULY 6

Ayr
1.40
Tricky Dicky 100
Call Me Ginger 98
Fortamour 95

Uttoxeter
3.00
Sirobbie 142
Jimmy Rabbitte 138
Enniscoffey Oscar 136

3.30
For Good Measure 154
Hepijeu 148
Bandsman 148

Windsor
5.15
Second Collection 103
Yimou 99
Dark Shot 98
An interesting top-rated selection. Recent form doesn’t look much to shout about, but her record at Windsor is 2 from 3 and the losing run was 3/4 length 4th of 16 in a Class 2 event. First go at five furlongs, but happy to trust her trainer on that one.

[Venture to Cognac]

Well done today Rob.

That Summer Cup is my kind of race, but had to swerve it this year. It’s just too tricky. I see Hepijeu makes the list. I’ve got a real soft spot for him, hope he runs well.

[robnorth]

Hit the inside of the post with Second Collection, beaten a head and backed into 5/1. Certainly worth watching out for this one at Windsor as she is now 1142 from 4 runs and five furlongs is no problem. Second rated Yimou was the winner at 9/2 so the ratings were in the ball park.

Tuesday July 7

Pontefract
1.50
Harry Love 107
Garsman 102
Illusionist 101

3.55
Golden Apollo 117
Walhaan 116
Summerghand 113

Newton Abbot
4.50
Irish Prophecy 143
Darling Maltaix 136
Templepark 134

The most interesting selection of the day, Irish Prophecy has been reported as having bled at least once and I suspect on at least one other occasion when he ‘stopped quickly’. The best time to catch ‘bleeders’ is when they are fresh so I would hope this one will be fit and ready as he’s good enough at his best.

Leicester
6.45
Red October 107
Geetanjali 103
Global Art 99

[robnorth]

A successful day with my highlighted selection Irish Prophecy winning at 8/1, bursting between 2nd and 3rd rated to give a 1-3-2 for the ratings. Can’t be sure but I suspect the winner bled when pulled up behind Fleur Irlandaise at Kempton in February. i’d be a bit wary if this one comes back too quickly though he clearly has a fair bit of ability.

Red October won at Leicester at 5/2 to make it 2 out of 4 for top rated on the day.

Only one qualifying race tomorrow, a three-year-old handicap at Ripon, and only one has run in a handicap so will give that one a miss.

Results will vary working in the 15 to 20% winner area but results certainly suggest the ratings are pointing us in rewarding areas:

Selections 131 Wins 23 (17.5%) Returns 212.54pts (162.2%)

For the more patient early returns for those rated at least 5lbs clear top are even more encouraging:

Selections 34 Wins 8 (23.5%) Returns 74.40pts (218.8%)

Busy racing days from Thursday to Saturday so plenty of work to do. We are having some renovations done at home over the next couple of weeks which will cause some upheaval, so can’t guarantee not to miss a day or two but do my best to keep up!

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