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Are people actually suggesting that landing gambles in the manner David Pipe has today is acceptable if there is historical precedent that could conceivably have led to someone backing the horse in question?
When Raslan won today’s race in 2009, David Pipe was asked to explain the apparent improvement in form. In stark contrast to when similar questions were asked at Bangor in 2007, he suggested that the combination of a re-applied visor, first-time tongue strap and fast ground were behind the horse’s upturn in fortune.
It would be fair to say then that the trainer believed the visor-strap-conditions combination to be ideal for the horse?
His next three runs would seem to bare that out. Raslan sported a visor and tongue strap at Bath in September 2009 when finishing a close third having ‘tracked the winner’ throughout; both aids were again present when setting a strong pace in the Cesarewitch proved beyond him; and the combination seemed to work for the third time in four outings when he finished 3.5 lengths fourth to Trenchant in a competitive Kempton handicap, a game front-running performance curtailed by a mistake in the latter stages.
Raslan returned at Cheltenham in April 2010, without his much-needed visor, and was never competitive off a mark just 2lbs higher than when running so well at Kempton. But he had had five months off and was shouldering a big weight in a Cheltenham handicap, so he can be forgiven for finding it difficult.
On to Uttoxeter in May, running again from a mark of 137 and with cheekpieces on in place of the still absent visor. Trying something new? Raslan raced in rear from the off and was struggling soon after.
Newton Abbot later in the month and down to a mark of 135. A course the horse obviously likes. No fast ground and no visor either, the previously ineffective cheekpieces persevered with for a second consecutive outing. Raslan raced in rear from the off and was struggling soon after.
Worcester in early June then and a rating of 133. Two and a half miles, fast ground and…cheekpieces. Third time’s a charm? Not for this fellow. Never better than mid-division and without the proverbial prayer after the fourth.
Newton Abbot in mid-June. His rating now 131. Fast ground. Cheekpieces. What are we thinking? Resounding victory? A tad better than midfield early on and no hope before half way.
Market Rasen. July. Rating of 129. The visor returns! No cheekpieces! But no tongue strap either. A return to racing on the front-end, but no joy.
Newton Abbot and the race he won twelve long months ago. The mark, 125 – the same as twelve months ago. The visor makes a second appearance! The tongue strap is back! But no fast ground, it’s surely too soft? No! The money pours in! Leads from the get-go and is clear two-out. Victorious once again.
All of that is coincidental and consistent throughout, Rory?
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If authorities dont investigate/look into Tim Vaughan horses that go off much shorter SP prices than those available on betfair then I fail to see why they would investigate this.
A horse of his called Maggie Aron ran at Newton Abbot on 05/07/10, she went off 10/11 fav but was available as high as 3.45 on betfair sp. The horse ran a stinker and finished tailed off. This sort of thing could only happen in horse racing..
No faith in the stewards at all
If authorities dont investigate/look into Tim Vaughan horses that go off much shorter SP prices than those available on betfair then I fail to see why they would investigate this.
A horse of his called Maggie Aron ran at Newton Abbot on 05/07/10, she went off 10/11 fav but was available as high as 3.45 on betfair sp. The horse ran a stinker and finished tailed off. This sort of thing could only happen in horse racing..
No faith in the stewards at all
If you look at at horse priced 10/11 & think to yourself, ‘well he must be a cert at that price’ without looking at the other horses & taking into account very simple things like form, you deserve to have your pockets emptied.
I fail to see what business it is of the stewards. I’d say it more a case of there being a lot of mugs who bet on nothing other than ‘its the favourite’ while the betfair crowd are more in the know.
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If you think there is nothing wrong with a board sp of 10/11 against a betfair sp of 3.45 then you are kidding yourself, especially considering how the horse ran.
Anyway the issue isnt really with how the horse ran – the issue is with the price differential.
Just for reference I didnt back the horse, I backed the horse that finished third that day. Perhaps ask next time, it may serve you well.
Its funny how there is never such a difference of opinion between bookmaker sp’s and betfair sp’s for any other sports….
You got one point right however, there was someone in the know who knew a lot more than any punter given how the horse ran.
Watch the race again, look at the price difference and then tell yourself there was nothing questionable. If you can convince yourself of that then well done.
Two horses that have had their handicap marks manipulated this year to allow them the best chance of winning are
Buena Vista
at Cheltenham and
Evens and Odds
at Goodwood,both horses won their respective races having finished 2nd in the same race the previous year both horses marks went up for finishing 2nd and after both horses showing absolutely zilch in between were duly dropped to exactly the same marks they had run so well off the previous year!Now in some peoples minds that would be called "Cheating",i prefer to call it "Playing the system",a system that has been created many years ago, just for doing just that! Those of us who have been involved with racing for years use the information as part of our analysis! To succeed in betting on horses you have to know when to mix the Black with the White!
If you think there is nothing wrong with a board sp of 10/11 against a betfair sp of 3.45 then you are kidding yourself, especially considering how the horse ran.
Anyway the issue isnt really with how the horse ran – the issue is with the price differential.
Just for reference I didnt back the horse, I backed the horse that finished third that day. Perhaps ask next time, it may serve you well.
Its funny how there is never such a difference of opinion between bookmaker sp’s and betfair sp’s for any other sports….
You got one point right however, there was someone in the know who knew a lot more than any punter given how the horse ran.
Watch the race again, look at the price difference and then tell yourself there was nothing questionable. If you can convince yourself of that then well done.
Hang on! Hold the phone! It wasn’t so very long ago you said on this very forum that you didn’t back horses.
Didn’t you?
I think it’s called shrewd operator!! Ditto Sir Mark Prescott & Alan Jones who had a double today!
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If you think there is nothing wrong with a board sp of 10/11 against a betfair sp of 3.45 then you are kidding yourself, especially considering how the horse ran.
Anyway the issue isnt really with how the horse ran – the issue is with the price differential.
Just for reference I didnt back the horse, I backed the horse that finished third that day. Perhaps ask next time, it may serve you well.
Its funny how there is never such a difference of opinion between bookmaker sp’s and betfair sp’s for any other sports….
You got one point right however, there was someone in the know who knew a lot more than any punter given how the horse ran.
Watch the race again, look at the price difference and then tell yourself there was nothing questionable. If you can convince yourself of that then well done.
Hang on! Hold the phone! It wasn’t so very long ago you said on this very forum that you didn’t back horses.
Didn’t you?
Quite right and good observation but hold that phone once again or at least call them back later because I also said "on this very forum" that I recieved a betting voucher for my birthday and was using it. You obviously will know this however.. Theres no secret I backed the horse who finished third, make of that what you will….
But just so I am straight on this, and forgive me If Im not but you feel that a price differential of 10/11 with bookmakers and 3.45 on betfair is purely down to better race form reading by those users on betfair? You dont feel there is anything unusual about such a price difference, its purely down to ability to read form better by those on betfair?
Newton Abbot and the race he won twelve long months ago. The mark, 125 – the same as twelve months ago. The visor makes a second appearance! The tongue strap is back! But no fast ground,
it’s surely too soft?
No! The money pours in! Leads from the get-go and is clear two-out. Victorious once again.
Strikes me that your lengthy post is a bit of top-notch form study AJ, save for "it’s surely too soft"; Raslan won two juvenile hurdles and had all round promising form on it three and more years ago, and hadn’t run on it again until yesterday. ‘Unexposed on soft’ would have been my idea
Horses that display the cyclical form of Raslan, allied to buckets (silver-gilt tureens) of backclass and a lengthy list of ORs are what for me makes betting fields of exposed, ageing handicappers such a joy and challenge. It is, as CR mentions ‘all in the formbook’
There is a saying along the lines of ‘never expect an old (or exposed) horse to win off a higher mark than it has in the past’. Hardly a rule set in concrete but usefully cautionary nevertheless
It would be naive in the extreme to believe that Raslan’s drop to his last winning mark wouldn’t have caused Pipe to ‘train the horse to the minute’: as long as there are handicaps, that is the trainer’s job
Part of the handicap bettor’s job is to decide ‘today’ or ‘not today’ and to be cognisant of both the horse’s character and trainer’s MO. Unlike the young horse whose ‘backclass’ consists of runs buried midfield in a maiden or novice and who’s true ability is known to only the insider, Raslan’s chance was there for all to see: a level playing field
Incidentally a 15/2 SP hardly strikes me as a gamble or money pouring in, just a correction to something resembling ‘true odds’.
It was only this thread that drew me to looking at the race (after the event) and it didn’t take much more than a nanosecond to realise that an RP forecast of 20/1 was absurd.
What were the morning odds on Betfair and the books?
As Rory has pointed out Raslan is one of those distinctly dodgy irresolute horses that tests a trainer’s skill and patience to the limit. Pipe has done a grand job with him
A race and result that epitomises much of the intellectual stimulation and intrigue that betting horses can provide IMO
I’d narrowed the race down to two interesting ratio bets.
One was Raslan and the other Secret Tune.
I persuaded my local bookie that 40-1 was the proper price for Secret Tune and he agreed!Now what I liked about Secret Tune was he had always raced in high quality company and this was a down grade. He was readily available @ 33-1 and looked a cracking bet the one doubt being the sharp course – he is good at Newbury which is not. Rating down from 140 to 130.
Raslan was obvious. A CD winner and the rating back to the same mark (125) as he has won here before with, and in same class. One doubt was the stable jockey had picked Battle Group. Didn’t notice any other CD runners.
Those of you who don’t understand you have to run handicappers all the time until the race and the prize money is right. That’s not just me it was stated on C4 racing and quickly brushed aside. This is what I look for. The prize money – is it worth winning? There’s just a couple of races today for example. The favourite – is it a true favourite or is this a great ratio betting race? The rating – is it coming down? The CD winners, and especially those runners that have PU in recent form (saved for later). There’s loads more.
What I will try and do for you is get the excuses that were published in the local paper down in Newton Abbot by the trainers at a previous meeting as to the improvements in their runners and the ‘strange’ results! It’s worth a laugh and you help you to understand what goes on!
Those of you who missed out on Raslan and Secret Tune 40-1 or better about Backstage for the 2011 Grand National is a great price – must shorten over time, only risk is will it get to the line fit and well.
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My point regarding soft ground, Drone, was that David Pipe, when questioned by Newton Abbot’s stewards in 2009, suggested that
fast
ground contributed to Raslan’s (second) miraculous improvement in form.
Evidence prior to and after the event would seem to suggest otherwise.
I must admit that I find the propensity of some to actually romanticise this particular result beyond bemusing. Had Barney Curley, seemingly one of the most patient trainers in racing history, been responsible for landing a gamble with a horse beaten 39l, 34l, 47l, 96l and 43l on its previous five outings, there would be absolute uproar. But not when it’s David Pipe.
Such a reaction only goes to prove one thing – inexplicable improvements in form are generally accepted by gamblers if they’ve either benefitted directly or can say after the race ‘I should have seen that’. The gambles orchestrated by the likes of Barney Curley are unpredictable and are therefore far less tolerable; in reality, they do not differ in the slightest (although the executor’s bravado obviously has some influence).
Barney Curley would have waited to get Raslan down to 90 before he was prepared to release the handbrake.
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Barney Curley would have waited to get Raslan down to 90 before he was prepared to release the handbrake.
I’ll let him (Pipe) off then.
A race and result that epitomises much of the intellectual stimulation and intrigue that betting horses can provide IMO
Nicely put.
Without these back class handicappers what is the value punter left with? 2 runner novice races, insider maidens, over analysed class 1’s and short priced form horses.
Raslan yesterday is part of what makes the game good imo.
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So because you could conceivably have predicted the gamble, albeit with no certainty whatsoever, the horse’s previous performances can simply be overlooked?
Nonsense.
David Pipe has been called before the stewards on two occasions in relation to the drastic and rapid improvement in form of Raslan. On the first occasion he offered no explanation at all and on the second made it very clear that the re-application of a visor, a first-time tongue strap and fast ground suited the horse ideally.
The stewards accepted the latter, despite racecourse evidence to the contrary.
Raslan ran six times in 2010 prior to yesterday’s victory, racing sufficiently prominently only once and never whilst wearing both a visor and tongue strap. On four of those occasions cheekpieces were utilised, an aid used only once 26 outings prior to their re-application at Uttoxeter. The visor and tongue strap then return without the obviously ineffective cheekpieces and see a front-running Raslan win the same race he did twelve months ago after being heavily backed.
How does that ‘make the game good’?
The horse has been run in a manner inconsistent with the trainer’s own explanation and has been heavily backed on the only occasion that its ideal conditions were satisfied (a handicap mark 12lb lower than when running well in a better race at Kempton didn’t hurt either).
AJ,
So are you saying that any horse that wins a race wearing headgear and/or a tongue tie, MUST always be declared to wear the same equipment in every future race in it’s career?
You seem to regard the return to visor and tongue tie as some sort of dastardly plot, but these items are all shown in the form book and are declared more than 24hrs before the race, so there’s no great secret.
Secondly, are you saying that no horse with a sequence of poor performances to it’s name should be allowed to win any race? What would make a win for Raslan acceptable – a recent placed run?
Or is it the fact that he was backed that is the big problem – would you have been happy to see him win if only he’d gone off at 25-1.
Out of interest, there is one (in my view) significant pattern in the past performances of Raslan, who is a small flat bred horse. He has run 19 times since returning from a one year layoff in March 2009. In only three of those races has he carried less than 11 stone. He has won two of those three (the two N Abbot wins) and he was beaten a neck in the other.
AP
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