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TAPK has taken the gloves off again,my fingers were burnt on ‘Taquin’ a couple of weeks ago but they have healed and tomorrow sees a cracking renewal of the Tingle Creek at Sandown.I have been taking the 10’s and 11’s all week about a horse who proved himself in this years Arkle a horse I can see developing into a proper Champion chaser,one who is at his best over a fast run 2 miles.No not ‘Oscar Whisky’ who needs at least 21/2m imo but
Dodging Bullets
.This fellow is a bull of a 6yo and hasn’t stopped improving yet.Interesting to see the half brothers ‘Oscar whisky’ and ‘Gods Own’ taking part as both look like 2m is actually too sharp.What we need here is a horse who can jump and travel at speed and thats what I like most about Paul Nicholls fellow.
Word
Perfect post Gord.
9/1 aswell a cracking price. Our old friend Fist seems to think Sprinter is in fine condition but the longer he’s off track you have to worry about him making it.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Word Perfect post Gord.
9/1 aswell a cracking price.You know me Nath!
Very sad thatOscar Whisky
paid the ultimate price though.I stated he needed heavy ground to slow the pace down over 2 miles as he hasn’t ran over that trip for 3 years!
I’m surprised he was so heavily backed into 4/1 for a horse who loves 3 miles.He should never have been in the race imo and I’m annoyed he was. 
Todays John Durkan chase over 21/2m at Punchestown is a race to have a go at solving,quite a complex one but here goes….
First and foremost we look at the prices and 6/4 the 2 favs is short. ‘Boston Bob’ is a heads or tails horse,I believe he has the pace for 21/2m but that burst of speed he can show comes on ‘English’ ground,I doubt its quick enough for him today although he needs to be fit enough now to show what he is capable of doing after 2 ‘Pipeopeners’.If there’s going to be a faller in the race he’s the one so I’m deserting him again.If this ‘Don Cossack’ was as good as he looked he’d be a world beater….He’s not and I’m not convinced he’ll ever win a recognised Grade 1,definitely not one at Cheltenham anyway.So thats the 2 Hotpots out the window.’Rathlin’ is not a Grade 1 horse so thats that.’Baily Green’ ran a cracking sequence of Grade 3’s a couple of years ago but that again is his measure,I just cant have him in a 6 horse race where 4 horses should beat him.
This brings me onto the 2 horses I like here,first is my Gold cup heroLord Windermere
,if this had been 3 miles+ then he’d eat them even if he was fit of course,somehow though I get the impression there’s really only one race on his agenda again.Dont be fooled into thinking 21/2m is too sharp as he was only beaten 1/2l by ‘Boston Bob’ 6 runs ago.I’ll kick myself if I’m wrong about him today as I’m not doing a Ginge and backing the whole field for a thruppenybit profit.TAPK has earned his legendary status by being blunt and honest,when he goes in, he goes in hard,he’s the sort of guy who can still play Football with blisters from his ‘Clarks Commando’s’!!
So the winner then isTexas Jack
. I’ve snaffled all the 10’s to win and 3’s to be 2nd on the machine,but only 7/1 with Stingey ‘Ladbrokes’
!I could be wrong but this fellow has the physique to be trained for a target like this 1st time out,that is reflected in his price as he only has a hd to find with ‘Boston Bob’ on their ‘Moriarty’ form and these Chasers barely have 4lb between them now on Official figures.No I think this fellow could surprise the Big 2 today.What did everyone make of Holywell on Saturday?
To me he looked as if he was never going as well as the jockey would have been hoping and I think he was starting to feel the pinch a bit when he came to grief. Obviously Cheltenham is a way off yet but I was hoping for something a bit better from him.
Un Atout made his chasing debut today and it wasn’t much of an effort, tailed off 5th of 6 finishers after being sent off 5/6 favourite.
Am I alone in thinking that 2m 6f was plenty far enough for a horse having his first run over fences, after being 4th in a Supreme Novices? It seems very strange to me and I wouldn’t have touched him with the proverbial barge pole at odds on over that trip.
I was very disappointed by that effort today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very hard to know what to make of Un Atout’s run given the terrible mistake he made.
I was surprised he wasn’t pulled up after that to be honest, he barely cleared the advertising board at the bottom of the fence. It’s impossible to know how much that took out of him but it was credit to him to actually jump and travel well (to a point) after that.
Regarding distance, I wouldn’t have seen it as an issue myself. He won at Punchestown on his last start over 2m 4f on heavy ground, staying on to good effect at the death. He’s also closely related to Sir Des Champs who stays well.
Holywell wasn’t going well at the time but I wouldn’t be overly concerned as a backer for the Gold Cup. He doesn’t jump as well out of that ground and Jonjo O’Neill’s string is in poor form. The form of his novice win at Aintree has been boosted by Don Cossack today and I wouldn’t fancy the Don to reverse things over staying trips.
Very hard to know what to make of Un Atout’s run given the terrible mistake he made.
I was surprised he wasn’t pulled up after that to be honest, he barely cleared the advertising board at the bottom of the fence. It’s impossible to know how much that took out of him but it was credit to him to actually jump and travel well (to a point) after that.
Regarding distance, I wouldn’t have seen it as an issue myself. He won at Punchestown on his last start over 2m 4f on heavy ground, staying on to good effect at the death. He’s also closely related to Sir Des Champs who stays well.
Holywell wasn’t going well at the time but I wouldn’t be overly concerned as a backer for the Gold Cup. He doesn’t jump as well out of that ground and Jonjo O’Neill’s string is in poor form. The form of his novice win at Aintree has been boosted by Don Cossack today and I wouldn’t fancy the Don to reverse things over staying trips.
Un Atout was a winner at two and a half miles Tommy, but it was a three runner race, he was odds on and they went a very steady pace that day. I think it is difficult to be confident about any race where a horse only beat two rivals and Un Atout made heavy weather of winning by a neck that day.
Looking back to Un Atout in the Supreme Novices, he was beaten quite a fair way but the three ahead of him were Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki. With that in mind you would think the horse would be competitive at a similar trip over fences, given the class over hurdles. It just seems odd to me that he would be needing 2 miles 6 furlongs this early in his fencing career.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very hard to know what to make of Un Atout’s run given the terrible mistake he made.
I was surprised he wasn’t pulled up after that to be honest, he barely cleared the advertising board at the bottom of the fence. It’s impossible to know how much that took out of him but it was credit to him to actually jump and travel well (to a point) after that.
Regarding distance, I wouldn’t have seen it as an issue myself. He won at Punchestown on his last start over 2m 4f on heavy ground, staying on to good effect at the death. He’s also closely related to Sir Des Champs who stays well.
Holywell wasn’t going well at the time but I wouldn’t be overly concerned as a backer for the Gold Cup. He doesn’t jump as well out of that ground and Jonjo O’Neill’s string is in poor form. The form of his novice win at Aintree has been boosted by Don Cossack today and I wouldn’t fancy the Don to reverse things over staying trips.
Un Atout was a winner at two and a half miles Tommy, but it was a three runner race, he was odds on and they went a very steady pace that day. I think it is difficult to be confident about any race where a horse only beat two rivals and Un Atout made heavy weather of winning by a neck that day.
Looking back to Un Atout in the Supreme Novices, he was beaten quite a fair way but the three ahead of him were Champagne Fever, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki. With that in mind you would think the horse would be competitive at a similar trip over fences, given the class over hurdles. It just seems odd to me that he would be needing 2 miles 6 furlongs this early in his fencing career.
I don’t think it’s a case of him ‘needing’ 2m 6f already, just that the timing of the race probably suited. Mullins has so many novice chasers and novice hurdlers that we sometimes get square peg in round hole situations. Faugheen over three miles at Limerick last season and over 2m 6f in his maiden hurdle are prime example. Thankfully for Mullins you could say Faugheen is a universal peg. Black Hercules stepping up a full mile yesterday another slightly strange one.
It’s impossible to say if Un Atout will come back to what he was but yesterday’s experience probably won’t have helped.
Steve,
Holywell
really is being trained with one race in mind and I’m happy to see him keep drifting for the Gold cup.Obviously I dont want to see him falling as it doesn’t do his confidence any good but you only have to look at last years rise to stardom to see this fellow will make his prescence felt in March,he does have a bit of a head carriage but I really cant see anything with his progressive profile to suggest there’s any danger….
Shutthefrontdoor
apart!!
As forUn Atout
,he now has to live with the stigma of missing a season due to injury and thats a black mark that takes some shifting.I wouldn’t touch the 19’s for the JLT or the 29’s for the RSA on this weekends evidence.
I don’t think it’s a case of him ‘needing’ 2m 6f already, just that the timing of the race probably suited. Mullins has so many novice chasers and novice hurdlers that we sometimes get square peg in round hole situations. Faugheen over three miles at Limerick last season and over 2m 6f in his maiden hurdle are prime example. Thankfully for Mullins you could say Faugheen is a universal peg. Black Hercules stepping up a full mile yesterday another slightly strange one.
It’s impossible to say if Un Atout will come back to what he was but yesterday’s experience probably won’t have helped.
I get what you are saying with Mullins having to spread the Marmite thin to cover as mush toast as possible.
Some horses have sufficient class to make them more versatile but others have more rigid requirements to allow them to be something like their best.
I might be way off with Un Atout but I’d try him over shorter if he was mine.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One for you tomorrow, Squire 550 Kempton, horse is very highly regarded and not out to earn a handicap mark, very good EW bet but could just nick it
One for you tomorrow, Squire 550 Kempton, horse is very highly regarded and not out to earn a handicap mark, very good EW bet but could just nick it
That looks a trappy contest that might not take a lot of winning.
If I could get a price worth taking I’d be on the bottom horse
Sighora
, who was a bit disappointing on the soft when favourite last time. Winners came out of that race though and her prior run, when third to Roger Varian’s Hadaatha in a Newmarket maiden that threw up 10 future winners, looks way above anything else on offer here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
One for you tomorrow, Squire 550 Kempton, horse is very highly regarded and not out to earn a handicap mark, very good EW bet but could just nick it
That looks a trappy contest that might not take a lot of winning.
If I could get a price worth taking I’d be on the bottom horse
Sighora
, who was a bit disappointing on the soft when favourite last time. Winners came out of that race though and her prior run, when third to Roger Varian’s Hadaatha in a Newmarket maiden that threw up 10 future winners, looks way above anything else on offer here.
Very generous fellows those bookie chappies or is it the mug punters you need to thank. 2/5 for the Godolphin horse and 4/1 for the horse with the best individual piece of form in the race.
Sound effort from Gdc1’s horse in second place and a £30 CSF for the forum readers, while the lemmings were wiring into the Godolphin barge at 2/5
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Gord: some nice looking horses (and bets) set for the festival. As you agreed Peace and Co looked extremely impressive but the one I am most confident about and looking forward to is Don Poli in the NH Chase, Mullins is extremely eager to ride him in this race
Gord: some nice looking horses (and bets) set for the festival. As you agreed Peace and Co looked extremely impressive but the one I am most confident about and looking forward to is Don Poli in the NH Chase, Mullins is extremely eager to ride him in this race
What you are betting on there with
Don Poli
Gary is actually the race rather than the horse as he’s actually too good to be a NH chase horse,much more an RSA sort to me but because I’m all over
Saphir du Rheu
for that race I’ll be happy for yours to run in the 4 miler.
Gord: some nice looking horses (and bets) set for the festival. As you agreed Peace and Co looked extremely impressive but the one I am most confident about and looking forward to is Don Poli in the NH Chase, Mullins is extremely eager to ride him in this race
What you are betting on there with
Don Poli
Gary is actually the race rather than the horse as he’s actually too good to be a NH chase horse,much more an RSA sort to me but because I’m all over
Saphir du Rheu
for that race I’ll be happy for yours to run in the 4 miler.
I’ve also backed Don Poli, but in the ‘win any race’ market. He’d be a big player in the RSA and in some ways it would be a shame if he went for the four miler but he’d surely be very hard to beat in that.
What did everyone make of Holywell on Saturday?
To me he looked as if he was never going as well as the jockey would have been hoping and I think he was starting to feel the pinch a bit when he came to grief. Obviously Cheltenham is a way off yet but I was hoping for something a bit better from him.
Would not take any notice of Holywell’s form this early in the season Dave. Like Gord says, there’s only one target and Holywell is always at his best in the Spring. Not had usual appendages on either. AP reunited would be a plus too. More’s to the point, Jonjo is in crap form and must be a bad virus in the yard, 38 runs since his last winner on 19th Nov. Taquin, More and Holywell have all been disappointing in this time. Only two winners in his last 59.
Form can be safely ignored and thankfully only an unseated, not fall. Considering the quality of horse Jonjo has at his disposal, there’s no better trainer at the Cheltenham Festival. Once the stable returns to form his best horses will too. When they do – watch out! Because after running poorly last time out they’ll be good prices; especially the handicappers who’ve been dropped a few pounds.Value Is Everything
I’m surprised he was so heavily backed into 4/1 for a horse who loves 3 miles.He should never have been in the race imo and I’m annoyed he was. 
!I could be wrong but this fellow has the physique to be trained for a target like this 1st time out,that is reflected in his price as he only has a hd to find with ‘Boston Bob’ on their ‘Moriarty’ form and these Chasers barely have 4lb between them now on Official figures.No I think this fellow could surprise the Big 2 today.
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