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Prufrock, I generally am not so much of a fan of horses that take their stamina from their dam-side (they do pay off sometimes and I will make exceptions from time to time, but not enough so i have a general rule against them), Eagle Mountains father was a miler, as we all know, and on that basis I’ll always pick a horse like teofilo or Authorized who comes from a middle distance background to out do them for stamina, and when you look at the RPT again with that in mind thats why Authorized (who like eagle mountain took a few knocks on the way to line) was able to muster a smart turn of foot whilst EM sat thinking woe is me, will I run or wont I, can I or cant I.
Also, look at the Race experience between Authorized and EM and the fact that EM went into that race on the back of a group win. I can only rate Authorized on what he has done so far (and hes been called, not just by me, one of the best RPT winner in recent years, 1lb below motivator) but in terms of what he represents (and the way montjeus tend to improve) I think hes really going to prove 10lbs or more better than his current 117 rating, unless he meets trouble off the course, with scopes injury etc. <br>On the other side of the coin, I think EM is unlikely to prove better than 120 in time, but who knows, he has (by default) become the flagship horse of the RoG first crop and Dylan Thomas didnt look that special last year at salisbury, time will tell, but I dont hold him in any high regard from what Ive seen.
I’ll put it another way: if you were to rate the two horses on what they have achieved so far, which would you have ahead, by how much and why? Or don’t you bother with that sort of thing?
118 for both horses. Though as I say, I expect Authorized to better that figure next year. Wouldn’t necessarily expect the same from Eagle Mountain.
I could in which case Id rate Authorized a couple of pounds better, but I think it will prove to be a useless statistic, my style of betting is to pick a well bred horse to beat the ratings.
I had been waiting for authorized to run long before he did, I picked up this little snippet of information from a Newmarket gallops report back in august, which first alerted me to the horses presence, which may not mean alot to most people but because of my massive appreciation for montjeus and the amount theyve made me it got me excited, and Ive been following him ever since.
Horse Racing: Notnowcato still in sparkling form ahead of possible rematch with Junior at York<br>Newmarket gallops<br>Published: 13/08/2006 (Sport) David Milnes<br>NOTNOWCATO, who posted a career-best effort when second in the Eclipse last time, continues in tip-top shape, as he showed when impressing on the Limekilns round gallop yesterday morning.<br>Sir Michael Stoute has a rematch with Sandown conqueror David Junior in mind in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes at York on Tuesday week.<br>Partnered by Gary Forster on this occasion, Notnowcato had the improving Stage Gift (Robert Winston) for company, with Papal Bull (Ryan Moore) following the pair up.<br>The last-named, who has been absent since winning the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, is set to carry a 3lb penalty in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes on the same day.<br>On the trial ground, Rob Roy looked the business when shadowing Maraahel and Jeremy in a 7f exercise.<br>Back with a bang after injury when finishing third to Court Masterpiece in the Sussex Stakes recently, Rob Roy could return to Goodwood for the Group 2 Celebration Mile in a fortnight’s time.<br>John Gosden used the trial ground for his team, of whom Ebor hope Signatory looked to be enjoying some give underfoot in his workout over 7f.<br>Off the course since finishing fourth in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock in July, he had previously scored in some style on his comeback at Newmarket.<br>Juvenile stablemate Safe Investment, who landed the odds in a Newmarket maiden a fortnight ago, looked good in his spin and may reappear in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown on August 26.<br>Peter Chapple-Hyam sent some nice untried youngsters up the long gallop, of whom Authorized drew most attention.<br>A scopey son of Montjeu, he cost connections 400,000gns at Tattersalls last October and may make his debut in a fortnight’s time.<br>Adrian McCarthy rode the Pivotal colt Mia’s Boy in a similiar exercise.<br>Entered in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot next month, Mia’s Boy was purchased for 90,000gns at the Breeze Up Sales here in April.<br>Jeremy Noseda used the trial ground for Sixties Icon (Mick Denaro), the ante-post St Leger favourite, and the Gordon Stakes winner pulled nicely clear of a brace of lesser three-yearolds.<br>Tom Queally rode Rahiyah, runner-up on her recent debut at Goodwood, in a sharp exercise with the more experienced Simply Perfect (Sean Casey).<br>One to note<br>Authorized: has the scope to make up into a winner this autumn
After reading this I was excited to see what he could do. Then came another report.
Training centres Put your faith in Falcon to gain compensation for missing big-race cut
Published: 15/09/2006 (Features) <br>The North Colin Russell<br>Dr Sharp<br>(4.40 Nottingham, nap)<br>Below par earlier this year, but Tom Tate’s yard was out of form at the time. Goes well fresh and, with his stable going great guns now, is fancied to bounce back to form.<br>Circuit Dancer (2.45 Ayr)<br>Unlucky in running when only sixth from a bad draw at Chester last week and is fancied to gain compensation.<br>Algol (3.20 Ayr)<br>Trotted up at Ripon on his nursery debut last time, and although more to do at the weights this time, is fancied to follow up.<br>River Falcon (4.30 Ayr)<br>Was fancied to go well in the Gold Cup, but missed the cut. Suited by some give in the ground and is considered to be on a fair mark.<br>Others to follow<br>Ayr: 2.10 Arena’s Dream, 5.05 Namroud, 5.35 Incursion.<br>Newbury: 4.20 Teslin, 5.55 Fort Churchill.<br>Nottingham: 3.30 Gap Princess, 4.05 Princess Cleo, 5.15 Monsoon Wedding, 6.15 Typhoon Ginger.<br>Newmarket Tony Elves<br>Sleeping Indian<br>(3.10 Newbury, nap)<br>Winner of the Hungerford Stakes over course and distance last season by a length from Majors Cast, and ended term with a second to Le Vie Dei Colori in the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket. Has been given plenty of time to come to himself this season, but recent workouts suggest he is straight enough for his return and he is fancied to prove the class act.<br>Tam Lin (3.45 Newbury)<br>Progressive colt who just does enough, but still on the upgrade and may well be capable of continuing his winning spree.<br>Authorized<br>(4.20 Newbury)<br>Peter Chapple-Hyam has a wealth of juvenile talent at his disposal and this Montjeu colt is considered right up there in the pecking order. Has been pleasing in his work on the Limekilns and capable of making a winning debut.Littleodayno<br>(4.05 Nottingham)<br>Comfortable winner at Folkestone on Monday and has taken that race well. Fancied to carry a 6lb penalty to victory on ground that should be to her liking.<br>Others to follow<br>Ayr: 4.30 Jimmy The Guesser, 5.05 Kinsya.<br>Newbury: 2.00 Sugar Ray, 4.55 Hi Calypso, 5.25 Josie Marcus, 5.55 Beau Nash.<br>Nottingham: 2.20 Rabshih, 2.55 Tobermory, 3.30 Danetime Music, 5.15 Dream Again, 6.15 Oh Danny Boy.
I was happy enough with his performance that race (a conditions race on his debut) and it loked to me to hold a lot of promise. The following is the report for that race.
<br> It’s many years now since this race was producing a steady stream of top-class winners, but Nayef made a winning debut here as recently as 2000, and it still usually attracts a select field of at least potential middle-distance stars from some of the better stables. Last year’s winner, Winged Cupid, went on to be second in the Racing Post Trophy, but he hasn’t been seen since his transfer to Godolphin.<br> Winged Cupid’s stablemate, TESLIN, could take the same route, but he will need to improve considerably. Beaten at Chepstow on his latest start, he didn’t look an obvious candidate for an event with as strong a tradition as this, even though connections felt he was the moral winner there, and Cry Presto’s fourth place holds the form down.<br> Nayef’s trainer, Marcus Tregoning, was seeking a fourth win in the race with Aqaleem, but the colt carried the owner’s second colours despite a pleasing debut here last month and he got up for second right on the line after showing his inexperience by edging left. He should do better next year.<br> Authorized cost 400,000 gns when resold as a yearling, and his entries suggested he is well regarded. The pace wasn’t that strong, so he was soon able to recover from a slow start, and he went to the front with 2f or so to go. He is bred to make a better three-year-old and looks sure to improve and win races.<br> Cry Presto, who had a hard race in fourth, had already been soundly beaten three times and appeared to have his limitations, but he still beat previous winners Diysem, who kept on from the back of the field, and Tastahil, who weakened quickly after leading, neither of them seemingly showing their form.<br> Palamoun was a market springer in the morning and is presumably thought capable of agood bit better.
Then the next (I’ll leave out most of the garbage about the others to save this becoming the biggest post in history)
After a changeover, Dettori took the leg-up on Authorized, who moved well in company with Striving Storm and one other. Markovitch and Demon Docker were two other notables from St Gatien Stables working upsides in a longer piece of work
It was then no surpise to me to see him destroy everything in the RPT, but perhaps to those who use ratings and other conventional methods. The following is the report following that race.
Horse Racing: Authorized caps stellar year for Chapple-Hyam
Published: 22/10/2006 (Sport) Lee Mottershead reports<br>AN "UNBELIEVABLE" year for Peter Chapple-Hyam continued yesterday when a 25-1 maiden achieved what punters had thought beforehand an inconceivable victory to give his trainer realistic ambitions of winning next year’s Derby as well as the 2,000 Guineas.<br>Already responsible for Britain’s leading Guineas hope Dutch Art, Chapple-Hyam now also houses Britain’s leading Derby hope after the immensely well-regarded Authorized laughed at 13 rivals and sailed through swamp-like conditions to claim the Racing Post Trophy.<br>Having won the race used as a springboard to Classic glory in four of the last five years, Authorized trades at between 10-1 and 12-1 for the Epsom showpiece. Only Teofilo is quoted at shorter odds.<br>"He just improves all the time," said Chapple-Hyam, whose winner carries the Araafa colours of Saleh Al Homaizi and Imad Al Sagar.<br>"We were going to run in a maiden at Leicester, but he was working so well that I thought we had to give it a go. Even so, I thought about pulling him out this morning, because he wants better ground."<br>Third on his only previous run, over this course and distance, Authorized yesterday eased through the heavy Newbury ground like a top-class thoroughbred. Sent to the front by Frankie Dettori a furlong out, the son of Montjeu showed the rare ability to quicken in deep mud.A length and a quarter in front at the line, he led home a bookies’ bonanza, with Charlie Farnsbarns second at 33-1, Medicine Path third at 20-1, and Ballydoyle’s hot favourite Eagle Mountain only fourth. Not surprisingly, the Trifecta was paid a whopping £1,538.70.<br>Chapple-Hyam, who also trains Authorized’s yearling half-brother by Fasliyev for new patron Cheveley Park Stud, added: "He has no quirks and does everything perfectly. Hopefully he’ll end up at Epsom, but we won’t be in too much of a rush at the start of the year.<br>"He’ll get stronger, and when they get stronger they get faster, so even the Guineas wouldn’t be out of the question. He has been working the place down and is a serious, serious horse."<br>Just as impressed, Dettori nevertheless revealed that after his Godolphin mount was scratched from the St Simon Stakes he attempted to take rides for his main stable at Lingfield. "I was doing my very best to switch," he said, "but the BHB said I could only do that if Newbury was abandoned. They’ve done me a favour!<br>"We knew he had the ability, it was a question of his experience. I said to Peter that running in the Racing Post could make him or break him, but he was very professional and won like a good horse."<br>Charlie Farnsbarns’ trainer Brian Meehan described his colt as "a nice horse to have for next year". Also a nice horse for next year is Eagle Mountain and, though seemingly beaten fair and square, Aidan O’Brien felt there might have been excuses. "The ground rode very heavy on him," he said. "It was a bunchy race and he couldn’t really stride out but he wasn’t stopping, although I’m not sure whether he’ll stay further next year."<br>The last word, however, should go to Chapple-Hyam, who now has the chance of doing what he did in 1992, when Rodrigo de Triano and Dr Devious won him the Guineas and the Derby. He said that this has been an "unbelievable" year. Next year could be even better.<br>Result Racing Post Trophy<br>1 Authorized Frankie Dettori 25-1<br>2 Charlie Farnsbarns Ryan Moore 33-1<br>3 Medicine Path Richard Mullen 20-1<br>Owners Saleh Al Homaizi, Imad Al Sagar<br>Trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam<br>Groom Noel O’Connor<br>Breeder Marengo Investments, Knighton House Ltd<br>Distances 1 1/4 l, 2l
<br>It is because I have always had a serious belief that this horse has the potential to be quite special, and the fact that he has progressed as expected and proved to me on saturday that he has the class in abudance to win a derby in style that I rate his chance so highly, not everyone reads form the same way as I do, and I fully understand them thinking I am mad to rate his chance so highly, but Ive always thought he could potentailly be a special derby horse and now he looks to be exactly that, with his good training attitude, physical progression due and his abundant ability, he just needs to avoid injury (and possibly Teofilo).<br>
Yes, very well done.
Authorized is undoubtedly a very promising horse as well as one who has achieved plenty already.
I just thought, before leaving this year’s Racing Post Trophy behind, that it might be worth considering what the pecking order should be in terms of what the horses have actually achieved.
If past form is anything to go on, there will be an outcry in some quarters if Eagle Mountain is rated ahead of Authorized, for all that there is a case to be made for that happening.
Bulwark can you PLEASE sort your quoting out and be consistent with fonts and text size? We don’t want to plow through useless information and see font sizes all over the place. I do agree Authorised is a very nice horse for next year and find it bizarre people are saying it is a mud horse as it hasn’t been able to show what it can do on a sound surface.
Sorry FSL, first time I attempted one with different sized fonts (which was actually intended to make it easier to read, but probably had the adverse effect lol), at least I know how to do it for next time.
Am glad someone is in agreement FSL, its like preaching to the unconvertable, is it because we were the two who gave him a good chance on Saturday and everyone else is still reeling from the shock, who knows, but there seems to be a general consensus that something better is likely to come along by derby day, which I find really far from probable?
Also FSL, what do you make of this notion that Teofilo is due to train off next year?
I don’t see any reason why Teofilo won’t train on next year. Looks to have plenty of scope and size and I would hope and expect he will improve (my Guineas bet at 16/1 hopes so too:biggrin: )
Having said that I would expect Eagle Mountain to improve and cause problems in The Derby as I would never underestimate O’Brien but I would expect Authorised to uphold the form.
The guineas looks to be a funny race, I thought it looked simple last year in that if George Washington stayed he won (but he was too short and so i still backed an outsider). Next year looks to have a fair few good horses with varying quirks and attributes and looks a hard call.
Teofilo I think physically (and on breeding) looks like a middle distance sort but he clearly has an engine, he has had to work hard this season to keep the speedier sorts at bay and trying to fight them off next season at his minimum distance (possibly without a run behind him) will not be easy, lets face it though he is the one to beat on all 2yo form, and he has to have a great chance (better than 16s anyway).
Holy Roman emperor is very small and comapct and pretty much looks fully developed at 2 which has probably been his advantage over the rest but I reckon he is likely to be bypassed next year.
Dutch Art is the Wild Card of the race (as the middle Park horse is almost every year), will he stay, wont he stay, its hard to say, you would think so on breeding but i find Mediceans/Machiavellian colts a hard bunch to call distance wise and on the style of his emphatic middle park victory you would have to suspect that he may be a sprinter.
Hamoody appears to have been written off for almost everything next year, and is currently sat at as big as 50/1 for the guineas, however I would give him a better chance than that, he was backed like defeat was not an option on his debut against horses some of whom had alreay won and done it with ease. After an amazing gallops report he was then given the same market support at goodwood where nothing went right and he still won. He was off the gallops until about a week before the dewhurst but there are two interesting factors surrounding his dewhurst run- Firstly that Frankie Dettori wanted to be on him, secondly that they sent him for the race and not Dutch Art. I still remember Haafhd and Antonius Pius being beaten in the dewhurst in 2003 before going on to be guineas horses (A.P. throwing away certain victory in the french). I still believe he has all the attributes of a very good miler in the making.
Haatef- likely to be a quirky sort but a late developer and you cant argue with either of his runs to date and he could be very good next year, as many seem to think.
Strategic Prince – has been consistently improving at 2yo and with improvement likely to continue over winter i wouldnt rule anything out.
O’Brien looks to have a stable almost completely full of rock of gibraltar colts so he cant be written off either.
Theres a few others who have been loitering around in the late group races of the season who cant be written off, Vital Equine who cant be written off but I reckon entries/stable hype etc will lead us in the direction next year. A very interesting race I think.
I did not see the RPT renewal so I looked at the form of the second and third and was not impressed. This led me to thinking it must have been the actual performance of the winner that was so significant. I have seen 3 2yo’s that took my breath away as an observer. Santa Clause, Zarathustra, and Sinndar: in all three cases I knew that I had seen something special. If Authorized is as good as they were nothing will beat him next year. The three I mentioned didn’t just beat the others they spreadeagled the field. Two did the same in the Derby and Zarathustra did it in the Irish Derby and was brilliant when transferred to the Capt.
I think Dutch Art will stay he’s by Medicean out of a Spectrum mare so there is ten furlong stamina on both sides of his pedigree. The sprinting part on his dams side might have an influence but I think he’ll get a mile Ok and I think he’ll possibly improve for faster ground too his last two wins have been on soft but his first two on faster ground. Teofilo I think may be vulnerable to a horse with a turn of foot over a mile (soft ground may be a big help to him). Holy Roman Emperor as one or two have already said looks pretty much the finished article in my opinion and I’d be surprised if he improved much from two to three.
(Edited by The Market Man at 6:26 am on Oct. 24, 2006)
Ive not quite sussed out Medicean Colts yet but am just treating them like as if they were sired by by his sire machiavellian who usually sires over 1m2f but even then I think hes responsible for the sprinter Machinist and probably some stayers too, i find mr p’s colts hard to place distancewise generally but just by the way he won he looked like a smart sprinting type and the fact that they have avoided the 7f race which I always find worrying. Time will tell but I couldnt back him with confidence to get a mile.
Andy,
Perhaps my memory is failing me but as I remember it, Santa Claus only just got up in his Derby, and again from a failing memory, wasn’t his win aided by soft ground and a masterful ride from  Mr. Arthur Breasley?
I await correction.
Colin<br>
(Edited by seabird at 8:15 am on Oct. 24, 2006)
O’Brien looks to have a stable almost completely full of rock of gibraltar colts so he cant be written off either.
Ballydoyle have more Sadlers Wells, Danehills and Storm Cats in training as 2 year olds than they do ROGs.
Not saying Authorized won’t be improved on a better surface – I certainly don’t think he needs mud – but I think there were be some horses behind that were seriously inconvenienced by the RPT ground and will improve more for faster going.
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