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I am sorry for offending anyone but a lot of people find it hard to get on with me because im controversial so I will leave this thread for the general happyness of the forum.
Hey, as i said, I like most of your posts. Like a good discussion anyway. You can say what you like about me!
Think we should not take offence, and may be you should not either. Just don’t name call etc. when someone disagrees with you.
I think you do give a lot to the forum and I for one, would be interested in a thread of yours in either Systems or Daily Lays And Lays. If you were to decide to do one.
Do you do one elsewhere?
Mark
Value Is EverythingI am sorry for offending anyone but a lot of people find it hard to get on with me because im controversial so I will leave this thread for the general happyness of the forum.
In what way are you ‘controversial’, Mr Wilson?
Backing odds-on chances to place might raise some eyebrows, but it’s hardly ‘controversial’.
I’ll send you 100 sterling if you post a thread in the Lays and Plays with more than 70 selections which is profitable.
Easy money
And the vital ingredient needed in backing winners…LUCK.
There are far too many factors other than form to consider, like the unforeseen and unexplained (Melbourne cup springs to mind).
Form merely give’s you confidence and makes what you like doing most a bit easier….Punting.
Self-confident
Egotistical
Arrogant
Stolid
Stoical
Aloof
Remote
Retiring
Thick-skinned
Patient
Boring
Level-headed
Impassive
Focussed
Relaxed
Unhurried…any, some, all are characteristics of the succesful punter to a lesser or greater degree
IMVVHO
‘Self confident’ is the nearest to competitive which IMO is the most common trait amongst every punter (successful or not) i’ve ever come across, even if the admission to being so is harder for some than others. It provides the drive for us fools
And the vital ingredient needed in backing winners…LUCK.
If you rely on the nebulous concept of ‘luck’ you won’t win much in the long run. It’s sound judgement and logical decisions that count, whether it takes 6 hours or 5 minutes to make them.
Rob
Doesn’t anybody bet on horse racing for the fun of it? Doing what Gingertipster does would drive me barmy with boredom to me horse racing is about the racing and the thrill not percentages and figures.
Like I said earlier, there is nothing wrong with betting for pleasure, just don’t expect to make a profit. You have to enjoy studying, but part of my enjoyment is making an over all profit. Think if I did not show one, I’d give up betting and just enjoy the racing. It is not for everyone, probably most people would think it was boring, but I am not your usual person!
The way I do it, I put aside my betting money for each month then any winnings I use as disposable (pocket) money to spend how I like. If I don’t win anything I don’t spend big that month.
This way there’s no real pressure on me to succeed yet winning means spending so its enough to concentrate the mind and it avoids me having silly bets and I dont generally back a horse if I think its a silly price though I don’t go as far as working out the percentages.
I usually do well enough, always got money to spend so it works for me.
I have tried betting to make a targetted profit over a three year period and I came out in front but the pressure I found nullified my enjoyment of the sport immensely.
Do I study form? Barely, I just know my horses and use the form book only if I want to check something out really. I belive the idea that you have to study form to be successful a complete myth.
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Hmmmmm, complete myth, really? Why don’t bookmakers have the same price for every horse then? Form matters. If this targetted profit was anything significant I think you were very lucky indeed Ian.
If you look at all the really successful punters in the game, how many do not study form?
I do not make a 100% book for every race but do look at every horse in every race I am interested in having a bet in. Knowing percentages is vital to judge value.
I think anyone can be lucky in making a profit over a short period /even three years if they do not have many bets. But to make one for a long time there is no substitute for form study. Other than my very own system of course. :wink:
Mark
To answer your points :
1) Of course bookmakers don’t have the same price for every horse. Was this supposed to be a serious question? You surely don’t require me to actually spell out why their prices vary? Bookmakers prices aren’t always priced up on form. How many times have we seen an Aiden O’Brien or Paul Nicholls horse priced up at 6/4 when on bare form it should be 9/2? Ok I accept that you have to have "some knowledge of form" but that doesn’t mean you have to trawl through formbooks, knowing a horse – its level of ability, its favoured conditions etc is just as if not more important than looking through its form to find that on one ocassion it ran thrid in a Group 1 and if it reproduces that run it shouldn’t be a 33/1 chance.
2) I don’t know personally enough successful / professional punters to make a judgement but as I don’t aspire to be a professional punter why would it really matter to me? Just thinking, how much notice does Harry Findlay take of the form book? Did he back Denman in last years Gold Cup because he had better overall form than Kauto Star and was Denman really value at his starting price?
3) To a degree I see where you are coming from but any winning price is value. If I back a horse at 1/20 (which I wouldn’t lol) and it should be a 1/15 chance I’ve still gained money (though barely at those prices). If (theorectically) every horse you back wins then you win, simple as. I do agree with you though that every horse has a price that is just too short. I believe you can recognise that pretty much without having to use percentages. Example my last but one bet was a winning one State Of Play at Wetherby. Had he been a 7/4 chance I wouldn’t have backed him because I would’ve considered that to be too short on what I know of him and his opposition. At 5/2 or 11/4 I was prepared to bet.
4) Everything takes a certain amount of luck. However much you try you will never get your percentages right every single time it takes judgement and a certain amount of luck to get them right and even then its only right on the back of your own opinion. If you think the percentage way is the only way to succeed perhaps you should ask yourself if
a) Its because thats what you’ve been taught
b) Its because you don’t know of or are incapable of doing it another way?Food for thought perhaps?
Doesn’t anybody bet on horse racing for the fun of it? Doing what Gingertipster does would drive me barmy with boredom to me horse racing is about the racing and the thrill not percentages and figures.
Like I said earlier, there is nothing wrong with betting for pleasure, just don’t expect to make a profit. You have to enjoy studying, but part of my enjoyment is making an over all profit. Think if I did not show one, I’d give up betting and just enjoy the racing. It is not for everyone, probably most people would think it was boring, but I am not your usual person!
The way I do it, I put aside my betting money for each month then any winnings I use as disposable (pocket) money to spend how I like. If I don’t win anything I don’t spend big that month.
This way there’s no real pressure on me to succeed yet winning means spending so its enough to concentrate the mind and it avoids me having silly bets and I dont generally back a horse if I think its a silly price though I don’t go as far as working out the percentages.
I usually do well enough, always got money to spend so it works for me.
I have tried betting to make a targetted profit over a three year period and I came out in front but the pressure I found nullified my enjoyment of the sport immensely.
Do I study form? Barely, I just know my horses and use the form book only if I want to check something out really. I belive the idea that you have to study form to be successful a complete myth.
:
Hmmmmm, complete myth, really? Why don’t bookmakers have the same price for every horse then? Form matters. If this targetted profit was anything significant I think you were very lucky indeed Ian.
If you look at all the really successful punters in the game, how many do not study form?
I do not make a 100% book for every race but do look at every horse in every race I am interested in having a bet in. Knowing percentages is vital to judge value.
I think anyone can be lucky in making a profit over a short period /even three years if they do not have many bets. But to make one for a long time there is no substitute for form study. Other than my very own system of course. :wink:
Mark
To answer your points :
1) Of course bookmakers don’t have the same price for every horse. Was this supposed to be a serious question? You surely don’t require me to actually spell out why their prices vary? Bookmakers prices aren’t always priced up on form. How many times have we seen an Aiden O’Brien or Paul Nicholls horse priced up at 6/4 when on bare form it should be 9/2? Ok I accept that you have to have “some knowledge of form” but that doesn’t mean you have to trawl through formbooks, knowing a horse – its level of ability, its favoured conditions etc is just as if not more important than looking through its form to find that on one ocassion it ran thrid in a Group 1 and if it reproduces that run it shouldn’t be a 33/1 chance.
1. [b:236wnhea]By Form I meant everything you know about a horse, ability, favoured conditions, jockey, pace, trainer, everything. Bookmakers price horses up on what chance they believe each horse will have of winning. If a trainer does well with that type of horse, or in that particular race, then bookmakers will offer a shorter price than the horses “form” indicates it should be (see Dewhurst). But it is still everything to do with how much percentage chance the bookie believes each horse has of winning the race. All I do is: after looking at everything to do with it’s form, there is a price I want to beat. I do not think we are that far apart in our views.[/b:236wnhea]
2) I don’t know personally enough successful / professional punters to make a judgement but as I don’t aspire to be a professional punter why would it really matter to me? Just thinking, how much notice does Harry Findlay take of the form book? Did he back Denman in last years Gold Cup because he had better overall form than Kauto Star and was Denman really value at his starting price?
2. [b:236wnhea]Yes, in my opinion Denman was value in that ground to beat Kauto Star on the day. Denman did not have better “form” than Kauto, but the going placed the emphasis on stamina which Kauto posssibly lacked. So Denman had a better chance than 30.8% 9/4. Every proffesional gambler takes value in to account. Harry Findlay being connected to the horse knew (or had a very good idea) how good Denman was. But he only backed it because he believed the price was true value.[/b:236wnhea]
3) To a degree I see where you are coming from but any winning price is value. If I back a horse at 1/20 (which I wouldn’t lol) and it should be a 1/15 chance I’ve still gained money (though barely at those prices). If (theorectically) every horse you back wins then you win, simple as. I do agree with you though that every horse has a price that is just too short. I believe you can recognise that pretty much without having to use percentages. Example my last but one bet was a winning one State Of Play at Wetherby. Had he been a 7/4 chance I wouldn’t have backed him because I would’ve considered that to be too short on what I know of him and his opposition. At 5/2 or 11/4 I was prepared to bet.
3. Before the race nobody knows who is definately going to win so the “any winning bet is value” is a non starter. You can not believe this and still believe “every horse has it’s price”, the two don’t mix.
Once a punter knows his percentages, i.e. can look at a bookies board and see each price as a percentage he does not “need” to convert prices to percentages, he just knows them. Everyone, even the “value doesn’t matter” brigade know something about value. I too backed State Of Play at 3/1 but would not have taken 7/4.4) Everything takes a certain amount of luck. However much you try you will never get your percentages right every single time it takes judgement and a certain amount of luck to get them right and even then its only right on the back of your own opinion. If you think the percentage way is the only way to succeed perhaps you should ask yourself if
4. NO. It does not require luck, luck evens itself out. You may be unlucky in a run sometimes but a punter should be good enough at finding value for these unlucky times not to matter.And he should be “lucky” just as often.
What is luck anyway? A lot of punters believe they are unlucky if a horse can not get out in time to get to the leader. But sometimes that type of thing can be allowed for in working a race out. At Goodwood over 7f-1m if there are not many prominent runners to take each other on. You can back prominent runners, knowing they will probably get the run of the race. A hold up horse usually finishes fastest but often does not get there. Is he unlucky?
Yes it takes judgement and I (or Dave Nevison or Eddie Freemantle or whoever) do not get it right every time, far from it. A punter can only say he gets it right enough times to make a profit.a) Its because thats what you’ve been taught
b) Its because you don’t know of or are incapable of doing it another way?a. The only way a punter can make a profit on his bets at 4/1 is to win better than 20% (assuming level stakes). That is not open to debate that is a fact. 1/3 75%, 7/1 12.5%, 85/40 32%, 20/1 4.8%. Therefore, a punter needs to find value to make a profit. A punter may, even without searching for value, make a profit. But value is what he has found.
b. For many years I have criticised systems, even got banned from one forum because of it. But now have devised one myself that allows for value. I am always open to new ways.
Food for thought perhaps?
I’ll eat it all up Ian.
Mark
Value Is EverythingWhile I agree with a lot of what you say Ian I will never understand someone not betting a horse they really fancy because he is 6/4 and they thought he should be 7/4 or whatever .
I was hoping to get around 2/1 for Kauto Star in the King George this season but couldn’t. If I hadn’t taken the 6/4 I would feel like a complete fool. Wouldn’t you have felt the same way if State of Play had been say 2/1 and you hadn’t bet him?
Everyone too their own thing but I also feel what Ginge does would bore me to death.
Having said that if he is genuinely making it pay, it’s more than can be said for the majority of punters. He has found a few winners on here and said they are his main choice before the race but he has also said he has baced 3 or 4 others in the same race. Betting 4 must eat into profits so much it would take forever to show a decent profit.
I would much rather lump the lot on a carefully selected 2 or 3 to 1 shot and get it over and done with.
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While I agree with a lot of what you say Ian I will never understand someone not betting a horse they really fancy because he is 6/4 and they thought he should be 7/4 or whatever .
I was hoping to get around 2/1 for Kauto Star in the King George this season but couldn’t. If I hadn’t taken the 6/4 I would feel like a complete fool. Wouldn’t you have felt the same way if State of Play had been say 2/1 and you hadn’t bet him?
Everyone too their own thing but I also feel what Ginge does would bore me to death.
Having said that if he is genuinely making it pay, it’s more than can be said for the majority of punters. He has found a few winners on here and said they are his main choice before the race but he has also said he has baced 3 or 4 others in the same race. Betting 4 must eat into profits so much it would take forever to show a decent profit.
I would much rather lump the lot on a carefully selected 2 or 3 to 1 shot and get it over and done with.
Fist,
By backing say two horses in the same race at 7/1 (12.5%) I am taking exactly the same price as you are by backing one horse at 3/1 (25%).
Say you have £10 on a 3/1 chance, if it wins you get back £40, a £30 profit.
If I stake the same (£10) in two bets of £5, one wins and one loses.
£5 at 7/1 returns £40. So even though I have lost £5 with my other bet, I have staked £10 (same as you) and won £30 on the race, same as you.
If I backed four horses at 7/1 I’d be taking the same as you would with one bet at Evens (4 x 12.5% = 50%).
It does not eat in to profits at all it is just another way of taking 3/1 or Evens in a race.
Mark
You need to win 36.4% or bets at 7/4 to break even.
You need to win 40% of bets at 6/4 to break even.
So if I believe a horse has a 38% chance, why would I want to back it at 6/4? I’d rather see it win knowing that if I win 38% of my bets at 6/4 I’d lose in the long run.Value Is EverythingAnd the vital ingredient needed in backing winners…LUCK.
There are far too many factors other than form to consider, like the unforeseen and unexplained (Melbourne cup springs to mind).
Form merely give’s you confidence and makes what you like doing most a bit easier….Punting.
You might think it is luck when an outsider wins but in fact a good percentage of winners are outsiders. Add all these outsiders together and it comes to quite a short price. For example (from memory) most years the probability of a 20/1 or more winner in the Grand National is around 40% equivalent to a single price of 6/4.
If you look at my system thread I have had 14 winners in 33 races. 2 at 25/1, 1 at 20/1, 1 at 16/1, 1 at 12/1, 3 at 10/1, 1 at 6/1, 1 at 11/2, 1 at 5/1, 1 at 9/2, 1 at 3/1 and 1 at 2/1. Though most were not my only bet in each race so the over all price taken was shorter.
Mark
Value Is EverythingAs an aside, may I just say that I always ( as a rule ) cringe when I hear someone on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire, say that they are 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95 or worst of all, 98 per cent "sure" (sure being the contradiction in terms) of the answer they have given. Eh, what is all that about ?
You either know or you don’t.
I was 100% sure Usain Bolt would win the Olympic 100 metres final. He had 100 per cent chance of winning in my book ( all things being equal/ unequal, of course
) so I guess the 6/4 I fortuitously procured for myself a fortnight before the race would qualify as "value."The best value bet I ever had was when a Frank Bruno fan offered me evens about Mike Tyson beating his hero. Tyson was 1/7 with most bookmakers. I explained this to him and told him it would seem as if I was pulling a fast one on him by accepting his wager, but such was his belief in his man that he didn’t mind. I accepted his bet, on the proviso that if Bruno did win, I would pay him double. I still can’t fathom why he did not stick the cash on Bruno in the bookmakers at much bigger odds – but there you go. Nowt as queer as folk, I suppose.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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