- This topic has 71 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Six hours of study ? Phew !
Six minutes is enough for me. People do tend to over complicate the uncomplicated, I find. Sometimes the blindingly obvious is just that – blindingly obvious !
Something might be blindingly obvious to be the horse with the best chance of winning. But to find out whether it is value, you have to know about every horse in a race.
A horse may be 1/3 fav, blindingly obvious the best horse in the race, but there is no point backing it if it only has a 70% (less than 75%) chance of winning.
Mark
…. and how does one determine the chances (percentage wise, that is) of any horse in any given horse race ? There surely is no scientific formula to such an inexact science as a horse race. So, in effect, the said horse (our 1 to 3 shot ) should not be backed unless … eh, unless what exactly ?
If I am more or less assured a profit backing a so called good thing at 1/3, then I sure aint going to hold fire for the sake of an extra fraction – value or no value. I do though draw the line – but as old fellers are prone to say – a winner is a winner – and is so much more gratifying than a loser of "value."
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Confidence and arrogance probably, ego no. Don’t see why you need that.
I wrote "are characteristics of the succesful punter to a lesser or greater degree" which is not the same as need
Some are wholesome attributes and others unwholesome, particularly egotism
…and some more important than others: which ones are for you to mull over, and I doubt there would be a consensus anyway
All credit to Mr Wilson for introducing the word "monostratic" to the TRF lexicon
- Total Posts 17716
David the cows have to come home for dinner every day and if it means top quallity place betting then it has to be the order of the day.
Drone – Thank you for the positive comments, i do like the sound of the word myself.
There is money to be made in every race FACT.
I dont live in a bedsit you moronic egotistical histerical monostrahtic hysterical sterotypical plonker.
Calm down. I think there is only one person here who is hysterical.
Sure there is money to be made in every race, if there is more than 24 hours in a day. But with just six hours to play with, there’d be money to lose in every race FACT if I tried it that way.
In my opinion, for me, I’d have better results playing in fewer races. But if you make a good profit that way, why change?
Mark
Value Is Everything…. and how does one determine the chances (percentage wise, that is) of any horse in any given horse race ? There surely is no scientific formula to such an inexact science as a horse race. So, in effect, the said horse (our 1 to 3 shot ) should not be backed unless … eh, unless what exactly ?
If I am more or less assured a profit backing a so called good thing at 1/3, then I sure aint going to hold fire for the sake of an extra fraction – value or no value. I do though draw the line – but as old fellers are prone to say – a winner is a winner – and is so much more gratifying than a loser of "value."
And how do you calculate that you are "more or less assured a profit"? By definition, that is also a calculation that you must make, and therefore a value judgement. Punters who claim not to care about value tend to be those who believe in certainties, which means that they believe that any price at all is value. Ergo, they still care about value, but they’re unable to work out what that means.
On a side note (and not aimed at FoF), I’ve always been amused by reading tips for horses which go "this horse is an absolute certainty and is expected to win by five lengths without coming off the bridle"; when the horse gets chinned, the tipster claims not to have backed it because the price was too short at 11/8. Sound familiar?
- Total Posts 17716
Confidence is……………. being able to laugh at threads like this one.
Six hours of study ? Phew !
Six minutes is enough for me. People do tend to over complicate the uncomplicated, I find. Sometimes the blindingly obvious is just that – blindingly obvious !
Something might be blindingly obvious to be the horse with the best chance of winning. But to find out whether it is value, you have to know about every horse in a race.
A horse may be 1/3 fav, blindingly obvious the best horse in the race, but there is no point backing it if it only has a 70% (less than 75%) chance of winning.
Mark
…. and how does one determine the chances (percentage wise, that is) of any horse in any given horse race ? There surely is no scientific formula to such an inexact science as a horse race. So, in effect, the said horse (our 1 to 3 shot ) should not be backed unless … eh, unless what exactly ?
If I am more or less assured a profit backing a so called good thing at 1/3, then I sure aint going to hold fire for the sake of an extra fraction – value or no value. I do though draw the line – but as old fellers are prone to say – a winner is a winner – and is so much more gratifying than a loser of "value."
How does one determine…..?
In exactly the same way as a bookies odds compiler does. No scientific formula, just by studying form.Unless what exactly?
A 1/3 shot should not be backed unless the punter believes it has a better than 75% chance of winning.
If a punter has 100 individual bets, all of £1, all at 1/3. If he wins 75 (75%) times (£1.33333333… return each time) he breaks even, Getting back 75 times £1.33 = £100. After staking £100. Less than 75% he loses, more than 75% he wins. So why would any punter want to back a 1/3 shot if he believes it has a worse than 75% chance of winning? Or indeed, has no idea whether it does or does not have a better than 75% chance of winning.If a bookies odds compiler beieves a horse has a 70% (roughly 4/9) chance he is likely to offer around 4/11 or 1/3 if it is unexposed. The bookie knows there is the world of difference. The odds compiler believes this horse is good value (a good bet) at 1/2 or better, poor value (poor bet) at 2/5 or worse.
Yet many punters believe "this horse is the obvious likely winner" so back it whatever the price, whether 1/2 or 1/3.
Hope this helps Himself.
Mark
Value Is EverythingYes, that as maybe, but some of us are sensible enough not to make 1/3 shots the cornerstones of our betting output – or else we may as well all pack up.
It’s not percentages per se that deterimes how I bet. I base it more on probabilty factor – if there is such a thing. Is it probable that horse A will beat horse B,C and D ?
Well, all things being equal ( or unequal, as I prefer ), give me the best horse with the best form, in form, and suited by race conditions, then I’ll readily take a punt on the outcome. Simplistic – but nevertheless successful.
Kauto Star was one such example the other day. Yes, I know… twas blindingly obvious, was it not ?
Oh, and thanks for your reply, Gingertipster.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I myself do not bet at odds on because although it might be value, to put on enough to make anything, if it happened to lose it is likely to blow a months profit.
But it does not matter whether it is 1/3, 3/1 or 33/1 Himself, the principals are the same.
At 3/1 back it if you believe it has a better than 25% chance, if not don’t back it.
Back a 33/1 shot if you believe it has a better than 3% chance, if not don’t back it.
But to make a consistent profit a punter has a much better chance knowing the percentages.
Mark
Value Is EverythingDoesn’t anybody bet on horse racing for the fun of it? Doing what Gingertipster does would drive me barmy with boredom to me horse racing is about the racing and the thrill not percentages and figures.
The way I do it, I put aside my betting money for each month then any winnings I use as disposable (pocket) money to spend how I like. If I don’t win anything I don’t spend big that month.
This way there’s no real pressure on me to succeed yet winning means spending so its enough to concentrate the mind and it avoids me having silly bets and I dont generally back a horse if I think its a silly price though I don’t go as far as working out the percentages.
I usually do well enough, always got money to spend so it works for me.
I have tried betting to make a targetted profit over a three year period and I came out in front but the pressure I found nullified my enjoyment of the sport immensely.
Do I study form? Barely, I just know my horses and use the form book only if I want to check something out really. I belive the idea that you have to study form to be successful a complete myth.
- Total Posts 17716
5.50 – Kansai Spirit / lay
Doesn’t anybody bet on horse racing for the fun of it? Doing what Gingertipster does would drive me barmy with boredom to me horse racing is about the racing and the thrill not percentages and figures.
Like I said earlier, there is nothing wrong with betting for pleasure, just don’t expect to make a profit. You have to enjoy studying, but part of my enjoyment is making an over all profit. Think if I did not show one, I’d give up betting and just enjoy the racing. It is not for everyone, probably most people would think it was boring, but I am not your usual person!
The way I do it, I put aside my betting money for each month then any winnings I use as disposable (pocket) money to spend how I like. If I don’t win anything I don’t spend big that month.
This way there’s no real pressure on me to succeed yet winning means spending so its enough to concentrate the mind and it avoids me having silly bets and I dont generally back a horse if I think its a silly price though I don’t go as far as working out the percentages.
I usually do well enough, always got money to spend so it works for me.
I have tried betting to make a targetted profit over a three year period and I came out in front but the pressure I found nullified my enjoyment of the sport immensely.
Do I study form? Barely, I just know my horses and use the form book only if I want to check something out really. I belive the idea that you have to study form to be successful a complete myth.
:
Hmmmmm, complete myth, really? Why don’t bookmakers have the same price for every horse then? Form matters. If this targetted profit was anything significant I think you were very lucky indeed Ian.
If you look at all the really successful punters in the game, how many do not study form?
I do not make a 100% book for every race but do look at every horse in every race I am interested in having a bet in. Knowing percentages is vital to judge value.
I think anyone can be lucky in making a profit over a short period /even three years if they do not have many bets. But to make one for a long time there is no substitute for form study. Other than my very own system of course. :wink:
Mark
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Easy money
Mr Wilson, instead of cluttering up this thread with your selections, why don’t you start-up a thread in the Systems section, and document your multitude of daily selections in there…..you may perhaps even wish to incloude running totals which show how much easy money you have made?
Easy money
What is this supposed to prove?
I do enjoy most of your posts Mr. Wilson and we do agree on a lot of things. Do not want to seem as though I am getting at you, because I do think you are a knowledeable punter.
But even if you had a 100% record today it proves nothing. Anyone can have a good day.
if you really want to prove yourself to everyone why not start a thread and post every bet you make of a long period (before the race of course). Would help to have analysis too.
Oops I se i was beaten to it by Grass.
Mark
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
I am sorry for offending anyone but a lot of people find it hard to get on with me because im controversial so I will leave this thread for the general happyness of the forum.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.