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How important is having an inflated head of confidence and ego, when one is having a serious punt?
I cannot count how many horses I have tipped to win races, and end up either backing something else once the race nears, or just don’t bet at all.
It’s my largest flaw in my punting game.
Does one need a thick, hard skin to cope with tremendous loss?
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MDeering,
Most punters in general are thick with a large unsuccesful background and decide to take the easy way out on horses.
I do recommend any punter puts in at least 6 hours a day studying to really achieve anything and you do need confidence and belief in your selections after your studying.
I know it is very hard when you put so much effort into reading and your not rewarded but as soon as you begin to come of those rails, study less, become reckless with your money managment and lose confidence in your selections and turn to other peoples then you really are in the deep.
The "six hour study" comment is interesting.
For the major meetings in Melbourne, I do spent upwards of 6-8 hours on a Friday studying the form – and I get told by fellow Aussies that that is way too much.
Many (and I do not lie when I say "many") punters in Oz use an Occam’s razor principle when they do the form.
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I won’t hide from the truth here now, for about 2 years I used to read the form for at least 6 hours a day and that’s not including studying pedigree’s, doing write ups for a site, posting selections and writing detailed explanations and then reading the markets prior to the race and I by god I made some very good money.
Recently things have changed and I don’t do 20% of what I used to and In contrast I have lost quite a fair amount by just thinking you can just skim read the form, check the market history for 5mins then place your bet but it definitely don’t work like that I can assure you. If you put the hours in your going to reap the rewards.
Two points worth mentioning.
1. Punters who back horses at odds against invarianbly back more losers than winners. This can cause frustration, especially when the inevitable losing runs occur. You simply have to take a long term view of your betting and ignore the ups and downs of the short term. If your basic method is sound, you should be in front in the long run.
2. It is only worth spending a lot of time studying if you thoroughly enjoy it. The margins of success and failure are so small for the average punter that time spent studying form can only be justified as valuable mental stimulation. If you spend this time grudgingly, hoping to get a financial reward for your labour, you are liable to get very frustrated and embittered.
Treat it as a hobby that costs you an amount you can afford and you will get a lot out of it – you might even make it profitable, but it shouldn’t matter if you don’t.Well the person I know who lives in Hove spends not a single moment reading form he never buys a copy of the Racing Post but is 19,418.49p in profit this year so far.
This is not like the ‘claims of sucess’ one often reads in the R.P. but every days result this year,win or lose has been listed.
And they are all at S.P. pricesSee the ‘old boy’ thread on the systems part of this site.
The revised method I have been using (again listed on the systems ) has made me over a grand and again not one moment of study was needed.
The each way doubles on 2nd favs in 8 runner races has made me just under 8k so far this year. Again on this site again for all to see.
So whilst one would think that the more one studies form the better the returns but there are ways of winning without devoting a single minute of study.
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This "old man" not much of a racing fan then, does he goto a racecourse and leave as soon as he gets his winner?, does he know his pivotal’s from his saddlers wells? does he know his Mckeowns from his Moores?
If this sounds nit picky its just the vibe I get in this place, people seem to click a thread and analize through to see what points they can pick out and argue against them.
I agree with mr wilson you need to put at least 6 hours a day study if you want to bet on horses,i love the game flat and nh but i get so frustrated to find everything geared towards the weekend there are to many races and not enough time to give them full attention,how many times have we looked at a race winner and realised if we had taken more time the reason it won was obvious,perhaps i should just concentrate on one main race,but i might miss something else,cant win can you,however if there is one thing i have learned i stick with the evidence of my own eyes and dont listen to so called expert tipsters there is no such thing.
If sanity is to be maintained and terminal boredom avoided, I would heartily recommend not spending 6 hours a day toiling over the formbook but in its stead selecting two or three races (a day/whenever you feel like it) that both stir interest and appeal as a betting medium.
Then, donning your favourite cardigan and bedroom slippers settle down in front of the PC for a relaxing, unhurried evening’s tissue compilation accompanied by a warm drink, some pleasant music and a fine virginia flake
MDeering
"Does one need a thick, hard skin to cope with tremendous loss?"
Isn’t the key in your penultimate word? Surely one should stake proportionately all the time – proportionate both to one’s wealth/income (of course) but also to one’s betting, so that no losing bet creates a problem. No point steadily achieving a doubling of one’s bank with, say, a 5% of bank staking strategy and suddenly putting 50% of that bank on a horse one feels has an especially good chance of winning and, when it loses, seeing the returns for several weeks or months careful betting lost in a minute or two.
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On an average day there is at least 3 racecourse’s on that holds lets say 6 races on average.
3 racecourses x 6 races per course = 18 races to view and we have 6 hours
60 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 3 races in depth
120 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 6 races in depth
180 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 9 races in depth
240 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 12 races in depth
300 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 15 races in depth
360 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 18 races in depthThat is just me personally, when you break it down is 6 hours really that long? 20 minutes per race….
Surprises me too – there could not be eighteen races worth betting on in a day with confidence!
I might scour the form for a 10-race card at Flemington on Saturday, and only decide to deeply analyse three or four of them. Which is likely – the rest are just competitive handicaps ready to vacuum your pockets spotless.
You couldn’t find 18 races in a month
I can go for days on end and not even look at a race other than a very quick glance.
If a person does not realise the fastest way to lose or get into serious trouble gambling is to bet every day then they are on the road to wreck and ruin.
Saying you love the game is not an excuse and if you did love it you could watch without betting.
Since I have joined this forum I have bet more often than normal but what it has done is made me think even more about what I am going to have a bet on.
I don’t want to talk about successes but rather how I go about it.
I do the following: I watch horses and wait until I see one I think is a bit special. The Binoculars Sizing Europes Zarkava’s etc. Horses like those are where you can make real money from If you have the bottle to put it on.
I try and ignore prices until such times I see/choose a horse I want to back and never let things like an AOB horse influence me if I thnk my horse is better even if he is 3 or 4 points bigger.
Novice hurdlers who show good ability can be something to bet on next time they run. Especially if they have had a right few quid put on them and beaten something half decent. Yards like Alan Kings and Nicky Hendersons are good to follow, NH often sends a couple of his better novices to the same meeting and he is no stranger to getting the odd double up.
I often look for a horse who is longer than he should be and bet against him if I can find something I think will run really well. I broke that golden rule the other day with Twist Magic which was costly but I couldn’t have picked the winner anyway.
At the same time if I see horse who I think is fantastic value like Kauto Star was prior to his first run in the Betfair 11/10 and the King George 6/4 I will get stuck right in. Which I have done incidentally. Again these type of bets are very often successful and they are the ones that keep the wolf away from the door.
I am amazed at the amount of times in a season where I have read on here people suggesting a horse is a certainty today. Know full well what the horses next target is and that if he does win the bookies will slash his odds to the bone. Yet they don’t take advantage of it.
An example I could give is Jered. He won a race the other day that wasn’t exactly full of world beaters and they slashed his odds for the CH. If I fancied him for the CH I would have bet him before that race, also in that race knowing full well what the bookies would do should he win.
There are time when you have to just stick your neck out and take the big plunge and go by your own judgement. I’m a huge fan of Binocular since day one. I backed him EW for plenty at 22/1 for the Champion Hurdle before Aintree. I knew then he was a better horse than C Halo and what would happen if he beat him. I know he hasn’t beaten any proven Champion Hurdle horses yet but I am confident that is something he will do in style when the time comes.
Never be afraid to back your own judgement or to back against yourself if the odds are right is my policy. Not to the extent my pal Ginge does it but if you remeber there is no such thing as a certainty and you are afraid of a horse back him aas well if the odds are correct. After backing Binny I saw Crack Away Jack eneter the betting at 40/1 he ‘s a very progressive horse who I knew through eading would be aimed at the CH….I couldn’t wait to back him.
Strike bets lie that and lay them off to ensure you can’t lose. In don’t as it doesn’t lie well withme to do so, but I know I am being stupid.
We all have our own ways but as I said every day punting is strictly for the birds.
Also I very rarely bet in handicaps outside of the Schweppes (Tote Gold Trophy) and the Hennessy
On an average day there is at least 3 racecourse’s on that holds lets say 6 races on average.
3 racecourses x 6 races per course = 18 races to view and we have 6 hours
60 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 3 races in depth
120 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 6 races in depth
180 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 9 races in depth
240 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 12 races in depth
300 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 15 races in depth
360 minutes – I would personaly like to have studied 18 races in depthThat is just me personally, when you break it down is 6 hours really that long? 20 minutes per race….
No offence Mr Wilson, but if you are betting in every race…. on every card…..every day………then you are essentially a degenerate gambler, and kidding yourself on that you are being clever by devoting study time.
And you are almost certainly in no position to be doling out advice on the nature of betting.
To answer the question:
1. Know what you are good at i.e. the races in which you are profitable
2. Take 30 minutes to look through the days cards, and settle on those races which match your "winning" profile
3. Take as long as you need to study each shortlisted race and satisfy yourself that you have alighted on the best value selectionJob done
Six hours of study ? Phew !
Six minutes is enough for me. People do tend to over complicate the uncomplicated, I find. Sometimes the blindingly obvious is just that – blindingly obvious !
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Mr Wilson,
You may think you are studying form thoroughly but is 20 minutes a race really long enough?
I can work out 100% tissues for some top class races in 20 minutes, yes. But to do an eighteen runner class 4 handicap chase will take me at least 75 mins to do it thoroughly.
I do not believe a punter has to put in 6 hours a day, every day. Just work out the type of race he / she is good at and then put in the time for the races you want to bet in. Of course it helps to have some knowledge of the runners before studying.
When I go racing (or want to bet on a days racing) I usually have a quick look at the card / races the day before and find races I am interested in having a bet. Then put in around 4 to 6 hours of study working out 3 or 4 races.
There is absolutely no point (in my opinion) working out too many races.
The more form study I put in the more confident I am about finding the value bet (note I do not say the winner).Although I make a profit, if I work out the time I put in and profit I make, it works out at well below the minimum wage. Can I put in a claim for benefits?! So is it worth it? You be the judge, but if and when I become more confident, I can up the stakes to make more. AP once told me many punters can make a profit at a lower level but once they up stakes it changes the way they think and do not find value / profit anymore. So fingers crossed.
Do not just dismiss other peoples methods out of hand. Some of Seagull’s methods are well known ways. (Though when they are too well known they will fail as the odds will be shorter and there will no longer be value there). I myself have devised a system that accounts for value (in true odds terms) without needing any form study.
Other posters are right, if you do not enjoy form study there is no point in doing it, you will not come to the right conclusions. Though if someone makes a profit from their studying they are far more likely to enjoy it. If you do not enjoy it I’d find some other hobby if I were you, or treat betting as just an enjoyable pastime without expecting profit. Nothing wrong with that.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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