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Hi Mike, it was the price difference that swung it for me. Whether he will be good enough to win is another debate which is why i’ve gone each way in the hope he will at least make the podium.
For those still interested, BetVictor are offering 10/1 3 places about Siskin. Everyone else is now 2 places.
Agree with this Clints, it was all about the price. He’s clearly very talented, but who knows Pinatubo could be too good etc.
Also, Betv down to 6s now!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Not surprised as it was on Heavy and he hated it. Not having Ryan Moore on a straightforward ride like him shouldn’t be a problem.
It can’t be as it stands as he is 4lbs inferior. Your initial assessment of the race you were saying you weren’t sure he would even place, with the bet on you are convincing yourself he is a surefire winner
Clints’ assessment of the race sounds about right. Still got it to prove for me. They will water to maintain good ground. Good luck to him and all backers but place at best if they all run their race imo.3 and 4 yr olds tend to fare best though I do respect Romanised. Pinatubo or Circus Maximus up in lights in the win column is how I see it panning out. Should be an interesting watch.
Not at all Mike, it’s all to do with the ground conditions for me, that’s the part I am unsure about.
On GF, Siskin wins this. Of course, it’s unlikely to be quite as firm as that. The bet is in the laps of the racecourse and how much they overwater it. If it’s the soft side of good, I will not be confident he can even place as it is a decent lineup.
I would not be the least bit surprised if Circus Maximus bounced back from his defeat, but you’re making an assumption he hated the ground, I’ve not seen that mentioned by anyone have you?
In any case we know where we are with Circus Maximus, he wins, if there’s no class horse in the race. Siskin is class so is Pinatubo, it’s just a question on distance and ground for them.
Why do you respect Romanised but not Siskin? That makes no sense to me.
In terms of form. Siskin is a classic mile winner, Pinatubo won a dog 7F, only just as well. Siskin’s third in the Sussex is good form, as is Pinatubo’s third in the SJP. Personally I’d have them on level ratings just about. I don’t see anything Pinatubo has done this year that is better than Siskin.
Plus of course as mentioned already at the time, one was evens and the other was 12/1! No brainer bet whatever happens
4lbs inferior based on the handicapper’s assessment Mike- we know that’s not gospel?
3/4L win overLope y Fernandez or 1.25ls to Mohaather? It’s up for debate, but then you are talking about a horse at evens and one at 14s when i suggested.
Pinatubo’s Ascot run is assumed to be the best piece of outright 3yo form available Palace Pier has backed it up, but otherwise it’s still not been cross referenced lots, so is it actually the best?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m not disrespecting Siskin. I said he could place. So could Romanised, plus he only went down a nose in this last year so C&D form which makes him place material on a decent surface. Just wondering in the back of my mind whether he could get his head in front at 5 having not done it at 4.
Noone needed to tell me, before the race I just didn’t like his chances on that ground. His profile showed his best top class form on good and good to soft. ‘inconvenienced by the ground’ probably sounds better.
I agree its a price thing Jack, if I was pricing it up I would have Pinatubo favourite but not that short.
And I have been using the words ‘as it stands’ regarding your other points. The race will tell us what further adjustments to the ratings are required.Circus Maximus is class btw. Siskin had an opportunity to pass Circus Maximus in the last half a furlong in the Sussex Stakes but wasn’t able to. Not for the first time CM is being underrated. I used to underrate him, but I have learnt my lesson lol.
Siskin didn’t stay strongly enough on gd ground around a bend at goodwood
On softish ground here I cant see him winning and I’m a huge fan of the horse
Hes a 6/7f horse who just about gets a mile
His strength is his electric turn of foot and high cruising speed, on softish ground that turn of foot is blunted and hes half the horse he is on gd or firm
Pinatubo does look a terrible price though and I’d definitely be looking to take him on, what with i couldnt be sure until I know the ground and who is definitely running
I thought 1 mile would stretch him a bit as well FF91 after seeing the Sussex, once he got back on a more conventional track.
After the race the trainer said “I am delighted with the run from Siskin. He is the best three-year-old. He came to win his race and he was outstayed by two older horses. There were no excuses and that is all I asked for coming into the race that we would have no excuses.”
Wheres the going you are working off FF?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I had quite a big bet on siskin for goodwood
Had been chipping away with small amounts when I backed a winner for weeks
He came there absolutely cruising and looking the winner but didn’t find anything
My conclusion was therefore he needs 7f or rattling fast ground at keeneland in the breeders cup mile
Just answered the question myself.
Tomorrow RP state Longchamp is Good to Soft. Obviously, that isn’t probably factual and it might be worth watching a race or two tomorrow to see actually the going.
However, any forecasts i find are dry and mid 20s, some 27degrees, must be lovely! So if g/s now, i’d say it’ll comfortably be good ground at the least, even with watering come Sunday.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Cracking debate this one, lots to come back on!
Firstly, I’m one that is a backer of CM, I backed him last year in this and this year in the Queen Anne, so I’m not one of those that just blindly writes him off. But he has shown on more than 1 occasion now that he is vulnerable to a more classier horse. Too Darn Hot last year, Mohaather this year and I wouldn’t call him class. I’d call him a solid group 1 winner. Class for me is Too Darn Hot, is Mohaather, is Palace Pier, is potentially Siskin. Circus Maximus is very good, but not class.
That’s still an assumption. His profile shows his best is on G and GS because he’s never run on worse than that. In fact he actually did in his Maiden, winning on Heavy. but he’s not once had the chance to show he doesn’t like Soft or Heavy ground in a big race. Only last time out. You could very well be right Mike, but it’s still an assumption that was the reason for his poor run. There’s no evidence or quotes to confirm it.
You are too unforgiving sometimes FF! It wasn’t Good ground though, officially it was, but it was on the easy side of Good, the jockeys were saying it on the day and even Jim Crowley said it afterwards if I remember rightly.
I can’t understand this notion that he’s not a miler. He’s a classic mile winner! People have been saying it all year about Pinatubo as well. They can both stay a mile. In Siskin’s case, he’s a proven classic winner on it. I don’t know what else horses have to do to prove that to be honest.
We are forgetting on this thread, that Goodwood might be a sharp track, but the reason for that is it’s downhill from 5F to 1F, but people forget it goes up slightly in the last furlong, so you have to get home. On that last 100 yards, on the easy side of good, he probably didn’t quite get home. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a miler. It is a flat finish at LC and if it is on the fast side of good, he has to have a great chance as he should get home.
He proved to me that the Irish 2K was no fluke. Watch his run again in the Sussex, he travelled the same smooth way and then picked up beautifully, couple of cracks of the whip and he took off a bit just like he did at the Curragh, but then his run faded just at the last 50 yards in the slightly uphill finish on easy side of good ground. I’ve no doubt he would’ve beaten Circus Maximus on faster ground.
He was an absolute no brainer bet at 12s and 14s and I was very close to maximums on him, I just couldn’t be sure on the ground, which is annoying.
I do think Pinatubo might just do it as he’ll be slightly more suited than Siskin on the likely ground I think. But he’s super short. If it does come up GF, then bring it on!
I was forgiving enough to back him again for the breeders cup (already had a free bet on him)
I think that is by far his best chance of another group 1 this season
Its a shame there is no big group 1 over 7fs in Britain for horses like siskin, pinatubo and space blues to be aimed at
We have loads over 6/8/10/12f but not one over 7
And 7 furlongs could become one of the more competitive divisions in the future with more emphasis being placed on speed in the breeding sheds
But with only group 2s to aim at bar the foret these horses will continually run over either a sprint trip or mile which won’t see them to best effect
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