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At least they have an explanation for his poor run at Leopardstown – now heads for the Japan Cup.
Kalpana 14’s for me… I can see why she has drifted but her form hasn’t been too bad, losing by about a length each race, including the King George where she wasn’t fancied, only had the pacemaker behind her in the betting. The winner that day Calandagan possibly had the race run to suit on suitable going, what price would he be if lining up in the Arc, favourite, I’d expect. None of those runs for Kalpana were on her favourable soft going. Will she get that? Certainly feel she is being slightly underrated
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
I think the soft ground angle is a bit overplayed with her, she has only raced on it once in her career in last year’s Fillies & Mares at Ascot which was not a vintage renewal (many of that field never ran again but 7 of them ran a combined 11 times afterwards for just 1 Listed race win between them).
She is a few points bigger than she should be for sure but I also think there are a number of horses in the race that would also enjoy softer ground conditions just as much (if not more) than she would and (outside of her King George run on pretty quick ground) for me she would have to improve vastly on her overall form of this season.
I do think Sosie (4th last year) could well be worth a look at (as he is as big as 11s in some places), he has won 3 times on soft ground and all bar 1 of his 6 wins have come at Longchamp, you can ignore his Eclipse run where for some unknown reason they made the running with him which didn’t suit him. His Prix Foy 2nd was a nice prep back from a 2 month break after Sandown and he is trained by Andre Fabre who is also the most successful trainer of the race with 8 wins and he also used the Prix Foy as a stepping stone for his last Arc winner in Waldgeist.
The one I like i Cualificar, but I didn’t get the price greenasgrass got for him. He will be better suited by the 1m4f and could improve once again. His best form is on soft or soft to heavy ground which he could get on the day. I “only” took 16/1 about him, but that’s okay for me so late after the trials.
Los Angeles is 40/1 and worth a punt each way at that price. He was a solid third last year and I’m not concerned about his recent unplaced runs given they’ve been preps for the main event.
Minnie Hauk looks the most likely winner to me. Has a lot going for her.
However, I am a sucker for a Japanese Horse. And seeing as the Japanese won 3/3 trials and the Europeans dont look so great this year. I do like Croix Du Nord as the most highly touted of the Japanese runners.
Saying all that the only bet I have had so far is Gesora as I liked her run after a break behind Aventure and is open to improvement.
Light rain and/or showers have ‘crept’ into the Paris forecast for Friday to Sunday.
Obviously nowhere near a cert but it’s obviously more of a threat than a couple of days ago’s forecasts.I take the french going readings with a pinch of salt, but at present going is said to be very soft
Wilts as you say about the weather (myweather 2) have up to about 14/15mm on saturday, but by the time I have typed this thats probably changed
Now the rain is coming…
Estrange – 25/1 EWAt least I’ll be able to pick her out if the weather turns dull and misty.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Backed Los Angeles again, this time not at 14s or 16s, but at 40s EW.
Added Gezora at 16s WIN only, as she seems to have a nice chance and her trainer being a G1 winning machine.Agree Ruby. I could tie myself up in knots looking at form, second guessing the weather etc so have kept it simple and followed Mr Graffard and backed both Gezora and Daryz.
Jac
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