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2:15 Goodwood 1pt ew Trick Or Treat @ 8-1
Looks overpriced on her best form and looks to have a squeak in this race
Thursday 2nd
LITTLE EDWARD Goodwood 5.40
Ran a stinker last time out but I’m prepared to give him another chance at a huge price.
1pt e/w 50/1 blsq
Actually ran quite well and only beaten 3 1/4Ls albeit in 12th.
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Bank= 113.8
P/L = +13.8Trick Or Treat wiped its feet for a 0.8pt profit but gutted I didn´t put Moorhouse Lad up at 18-1 was worried I´d get luaghed at!
Next race at Goodwood 1pt ew Balkan Knight
3.30 Montpelier A high risk all-in play in a high risk race. We know he stays, is fit, acts at the track, acts on the ground, has a turn of foot, gets weight from the field, is drawn well and is beautifully handicapped. Ed Dunlop does not re-run horses so quickly as a rule and has won the equivalent race with Fraam in 1995. I’ll pray the jockey rides like he did today and not yesterday. 10/1 forecast.
The favourite will not enjoy any cut in the ground and has had two hard races. The race is also a graveyard for favourites, (definitely just one in the last ten years and I am almost certain there were none in it’s previous incarnation as the Schweppes Golden Mile – one of the worst records in the whole calendar). Third Set may not like the ground either. A drifter waiting to happen, imo.
4.05 As both horses mentioned in last night mini-view are non-runners, I’ve had another look and Fat Boy, from Draw 1, is just too big in this one.
Good luck all.
Goodwood today:
2.50 – Gloved Hand 16/1 1pt e/w
4.05 – Bobs Surprise 9/1 2pts e/w
4.40 – Sofias Star – Currently 34 on Betfair which looks high to me. 1pt e/wFriday 3rd
SUPASEUS Goodwood 3.30
Had the top weight Pinpoint behind him in 2nd when winning a decent Hcap at Newmarket last May. I like this horse and get the feeling there is more to come from him.
2pts win 10/1 btdirect VCbt
Up with the leaders early but faded badly to be well beaten.
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Bank = 111.8pts
P/L = +11.8pts2.45 Tybalt. Form of top handicap win has been franked repeatedly this week at the Glorious meeting. The gap between that level handicap and Listed/Group races narrows each year. Ideal conditions. Needs to improve to win on ratings, but the opposition have weaknesses.
The Willie Jarvis stable is not in the best of form, and the Kirk yard are still struggling for consistency. Rallying Cry may not stay and missed a penalty kick last time. Traffic Guard went past trees at Newmarket, (including Eddie Jock, who may have had his moment in the sunshine at Royal Ascot). Also better at 7f, in my opinion. The Noseda horse is a danger. At least, to my selections.
8/1 is a an acceptable risk.
3.55 The Stewards Cup is a fantastic race tomorrow. Results this week suggest that extreme draws are disadvantaged by a length or so. Something between 10-18 will probably prove ideal.
So far this evening, I have backed Advanced and Becketmet at insane prices considering their backclass and central draws. (These high risk layers are getting the better of me so far but one day I’m going to connect bigtime).
I placed bets at 140 and 130 on the former. Best fresh, (1 – 3 in two seasons), centrally drawn and Group 1 entered. If fit, this is a 25/1 chance at best and the stable were unlucky in this last year. Has tons of pace to run at and the race may suit something from off the pace.
I also took 75 on Beckermet who finally has his ideal conditions this season. His run behind Iffraaj in the York Wokingham in 2005 lives long in the memory. He deserves a race like this.
5.05 Talayeb Ran a promising, tenderly ridden eighth in the scorching maiden won by Rio Del La Plata at the July meeting. Derby entry and well thought of. Drawn 16 of 19, Hills ridden. Will know lots more this time. Stable rarely leave the Glorious meeting empty handed and this – plus Kings Icon – are their best chances tomorrow. 12/1.
3:10 Thirsk — Mick Channon has a reasonable record at Thirsk and as long as the ground remains fast then I like the chances of Shot Gun who was outclassed last time out in a decent hcap at Newmarket. His previous efforts make him still fairly treated off a mark of 79. Winner of a maiden at Epsom I think he will like this course.
His rivals include Atlantic Story who has done most of his winning on the AW and risen a lot in the hcap because of it. Nevada Desert + Webbow might prefer slower going. A lot of the others are fully exposed but C/D winner Granston could be a danger.
Shot Gun looks good ew value at 11’s imo.Bank = 111.8
Saturday 4th
FROISSE Newmarket 2.25
Has given me the impression that this step up to 1m2f will suit her. Gd/Fm ground is an obvious worry as her two wins to date have come on Gd/Sft. As yet there is not enough evidence, imo, to say she can’t act on the surface. Looks a fair price.
2pts e/w 16/1 btdirect, bt365, blsq
Well beaten.
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Bank= 107.8pts
P/L = + 7.8ptsBalkan Knight came to win the race but didn’t go through with its effort and faded to finish 4th or 5th.
Running Up Bank 118.05pts
Now I’m back home no more damn internet cafes
The drift is gathering momentum on Betfair against Mandesha who runs in 30 minutes but 4/1 looks very generous to me despite the drift. 2pts win.
It’s good to see this thread pulling out a few winners, well done all.
The one I’m interested in today is Silverhay in the 4.00 at Newton Abbot, which at 16’s looks a tempting E/w prospect.
For a bit of fun I would include it in a boxed 6 selection E/w treble:
2.30 N/A Saorsie & Critical Stage
4.00 N/A Rustler & Silverhay
4.30 N/A Mistified & Celticello8no 50p E/w Trebles – £8.00 staked in total.
Update on my previous selections: Rubbish
At last a real Pricestupid selection from me…Cheery Martyr in the 3.30 at Sedgefield. Althought returning from a 575 day break and fitness a concern the 33’s avaliable looks tempting.
For fun I would double up E/w on Greenfort Brave 10’s and Amalfi Coast 16’s both in the 5.30 at Sedgefield.
Wooden Spoon’s Pricestupid selections from Goodwood.
2.05 Couldn’t have Rayhani on my mind ordinarily, though it will depress me not to back it after the bowel-loosening bet I had on it last time. 14/1 is a fair price. Lambourn in the RP, (who has connections with the Tregoning yard) naps the horse and the colt is still highly regarded. Must have it like a road.
3.10 Cesare should win this one fairly easily. To speculate, Selinka has the best turn of foot in the field, ran her best race ever last time and could reach a place at around 16/1. She needs a mile, (running on well over 7f last time out) and genuinely good ground.
3.45. Greenslades is the best bet of the day. Narrow second to Presto Shinko two years ago in the equivalent – and better – race. Loves racing in August (8 runs, 2 wins 2 places); six furlongs and good, fast ground. Additionally, he drops one class notch from a 2 to a 3, (excellent record in the grade) and is 2lb lower than last winning mark. Tomorrow, he’s up against exposed sprinters and the Makin stable had an easy winner yesterday. 10/1+ is a steal.
4.20. The up an coming Jim Boyle yard runs the ex-Mark Flower animal The Fifth Member who won impressively last time. He is arguably the only improving horse in the field and is also nicely drawn in 10. The Epsom stable used to enjoy targeting the track with limited ammunition and is up against some mediocre old dodgepots today. 15/2 (NB)
Willl also be backing Coachhouse Lady at Beverley, Shmookh at Newmarket and Sunshine Kid at Windsor at various prices before going to the football.
Accas, Lucky 15’s and various other Barbados bets galore – might even have a Union Jack. You KNOW it makes sense…
Good luck tomorrow.
A couple for a potential E/w double at a decent price are Sonic Anthem 20’s (Huntingdon 4.25) and Izzykeen 12’s (Cartmel 5.15)
It appeared my last selection Cheery Martyr, may have suffered for his 575 day break after quickly losing his place halfway. However, he was backed on the day from 22’s into 10’s and may be worth checking out if running in similar company with market support in the future.
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