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Barry Hills looks to have an interesting handicap debutant in the 5.10 at Salisbury. The first foal of Cheshire Oaks winner Shadow Dancing he was a strong eye catcher at this track kept to 6f last time, dropped right out under a 7-lb claimer and storming home to take second. Given a bit of a break and stepped up fully 2f in tripI’ll be surprised if he doesn;t prove capable of better than a mark of 64 before the season is out. By Green Desert, he should also appreciate this firmer going. I’ve taken some double figures.
A Pricestupid Lucky 15 for tomorrow. Three fillies and a ripe old battler.
4.45 Haydock Ravenna Anyone who watched the Ladies Derby at Newbury on Geoffrey Freer day might have fancied Tregoning’s rapidly improving filly – before the rains fell! She cannot go a yard on softish ground and was treading water a furlong out, finishing a tired fifth.
Unbeaten on fast ground at 1m 4f. Hayley Turner regains the mount. She gets weight from some sturdy old handicappers, will get a nice tow from the forecast favourite Mirthful, and the filly is only 9lb higher than when taking the first of her dramatic sequence of wins. Tregoning has winners at the Newton track, (3-16 for £23 profit). The stable does well with fillies, in September, and has already had a solid season with 3-y-o’s. (24% for a £31 profit to a quid).
3.45 Haydock Angus Newz Back in a Class 3 conditions race, on the same rating as her last win in the same grade, ( 88 ), this one has a better chance than his form figures suggest.
Five wins and places from sixteen runs at 6f
One win, one place from four runs at Haydock
One win, one place from four runs in September
Three wins, four places from 14 runs on good/firm gong
One win from three starts in Class 3The underrated Micky Quinn’s horse is locally owned and may have been plotted up to run well. A double figure price is expected for a sporting bet.
I’m also backing Greenslades (3.30 Newbury) once again to recover losses from Goodwood under Ryan Moore, (needs a power packed ride) and the in-form late summer filly, Gib in the 4.05 at the same track, (enthusiastic, improving front runner).
At the prices, one winner will show a profit and I fancy all four to at least place.
Good luck all.
4:05 Newbury — Ronaldsay is a consistent sort but has the profile of a horse who finds it difficult to win and often gets placed. I also think that the ground may be a bit too quick for her today.
The present favorite on BF is Royal Fantasy which is presumably because improvement is expected on the step up in trip to 10f. The trainer J.Fanshawe does very well with this type of horse but his horses are not running that well at the moment by his standards which is a worry.
Gib has improved with front running wins at Lingfield and Bath but is now 11lb higher than her first win and it is not so easy to win from the front at Newbury.
Arabian Treasure from the Stoute yard has disappointed recently.
The interesting one for me is the lightly raced Josephine Malines from the C.Cox yard ( had a winner yesterday ). This horse finished 6th in a maiden at Ascot last time but it is her previous runner up place at Salisbury on fast ground which is interesting. The 3rd and 4th in that maiden race both went on to win their next races and the 1st and 3rd have run well in hcaps off marks of 79 and 80 so Josephine Malines looks fairly treated on a mark of 77 especially as she has scope for improvement over this trip………….well that’s the theory anyway
She may not stay and could finish last and this is a competitive race but at odds of 14/1 I think she is worth an e/way bet.In the 2:55 at Newbury it is interesting to see that Woodcraft is being backed this morning – has a reasonable chance on early season form and has been running on softer ground than ideal recently. Only doubt is that this horse likes to make the running which is not that easy at this course and Martin Dwyer is arguably not the best jockey for these tactics.
Good luck to anyone betting at Newbury today.
They say that a blind squirrel, given sufficient opportunity, will eventually trip over a succulent acorn. So in honour of short-sighted rodents everywhere, I shall continue my quixotic quest for a decent priced winner here at TRF.
Ahum. Doncaster.
2.05 Stubbs Art is much better than he has showed so far – in common with the rest of the competition! Classic Elsworth preparation, first time at a trip and bottom weight in the handicap.
2.40 Rumours that Haydock’s Mr Tellwright has been ordered to Doncaster to take ground preparation lessons are probably off the mark. Salford Mill will relish every blade of the good to firm turf and if back to his spring form, will hack all over these. Unless they water.
3.10 No matter how hard I try, I cannot fall in love with a bumper filly, except in a bumper, and against other bumpers, so I shall leave the adoration of the Swinbank horse to others. Getting the weight,and with the the trendiest of Flat connections, fast improving Hi Calypso gets the vote.
3.40 Race of the day, and potentially the best Park Hill for years. TV style eulogies make no difference to easy winner finding – and this is wide open – so Barry Hills’ top juvenile filly, the Group 1 entered Sugar Mint and Mark Johnston’s highly impressive Lady Jane Digby are two against a premium quality field.
4.20 Surely John Dunlop wouldn’t keep Wid in training if he had doubts that she’d trained on? Already listed placed at two, goes well fresh, bred in the purple and this blueblood in blue silks beat Light Shift on her debut. The usual suspects are in opposition, and not many of them would get within half a furlong of an Oaks winner.
4.55 Tricky, but an opportunity for a grotesque aftertiming moment. I backed Medicea Sidera at Chester at 270, (2nd) and when she was first at the Newmarket July meeting – on the wrong side! Naturally, I didn’t back her on her last two, for price reasons. Make all tomorrow? Third time lucky for me.
5.30 Have not a scooby about this cavalry charge, but a mate of mine in the pub reckons local trainer AJ McCabe cannot believe his luck in training Capricorn Run and Haajes is on a nice weight.
Loads of frowned upon accy bets (and professionally-recommended win singles) enhance the squirrel metaphor.
Best of luck.
Day three at Doncaster. Some speculative each way action.
2.40 Not even the stable give this one a chance, but Baddam‘s record in races at extreme distances on good to firm ground is 11372. The seventh place being in the Ascot Gold Cup behind Yeats. This race is a Group 2 and Channon’s animal is currently 44 on the exchanges. The way horses are coming from behind this week is an added bonus; though realistically, there is a class problem. I’m gambling that the that the top two may not stay.
3.10 The booking of Olivier Peslier for Proud Linus is eyecatching. This must be a first for the “shrewd” Declan Carroll stable, more used to landing touches on the sands at Wolver. Once raced; noted making significant late headway behind Captain Gerrard at York, (has a couple of lengths to find, but will improve). Very highly regarded in the yard.
4.20 Speed everywhere you look and I’m sure you’ll get a new track record in this dash. At least ten of the field have led or made all at one point in their handicap careers. The race Ellens Academy won yesterday had a similar look and something coming from behind might be a good play. Intervision fits the bill. Stays further, but will be suited by the way this one is run.
The best of luck.
Day three:
2.10 A fantastic Champagne stakes. The key race here is surely Winker Watson’s July Stakes which is as solid as any 2-y-o contest run this season. Dream Eater, Dark Angel, Spirit of Sharjah, Fat Boy and Gaspar Van Wittel, (behind Ravens Pass in the Solario) have all upheld the form.
Third was Swiss Franc, (form with Sir Gerry) and runner up, River Proud, (thought to be as good as Luck Money who won the Curragh sales race yesterday). This is a key race, one worth remembering this Autumn and next year.
Yet a horse I suspect could be as good as any of these over 7f is available at a massive price. I don’t know whether a leg has been lost in the interim, but Let Us Prey should not be a 33/1 chance. (60 on bf). Has form with Swiss Franc, (unfancied, green as grass on debut and only beaten 3l over 5f) and the speedy Hatta Fort, (when given one of Jamie Spencer’s less successful hold up rides).
Highly regarded in the Callaghan yard and in some ways, Let Us Prey reminds me of this years Guineas hero, Cockney Rebel. The colt is potentially much better than he has been able to show so far and I’m expecting a massive race today.
With plenty of pace in the race too, this race could be set up for a fast finisher – like this one. No favourite has won since 2002 and the last winner was 16/1. Upsets happen here. The competent Steve Donohoe rides.
2.40 A tough Portland which should go to a hold up performer, (as with the other two sprint handicaps in the last two days). I’m backing all three of Littmoden’s at huge prices, including AW specialist Qadar who will love the fast pace and is a massive 17lb better off with the fancied Judd Street on Chester running last year. Buick rides, which can only help.
3.15 The Leger: Raincoat gets the conditions he needs for the first time since Epsom. Importantly, on the trends, any horse who has previously run in a handicap is up against it in this Classic. Raincoat has been traditionally campaigned and should stay better than his better fancied stablemate and form choice, Lucarno.
Others:
3.50 Mac Love
4.20 Taurian
5.30 VortexBest of luck.
I don’t mind losing at horse racing – God knows, this year of all years, it’s been a common occurence and I’m used to it – but I do object when a horse is ridden as unambitiously as one of my selections was ridden this afternoon.
It was as if the jockey knew he would not win before he started, so the object was just to get through the race unscathed and wait for another day.
Why bother entering the animal? Why bother telling the trades he had a chance? The jockey certainly didn’t try his best – and it is clear that neither did the stable. But that’s not unusual with this yard and I should have known that in advance. Hence, the price. Oh hum.
Still, because I’m selecting horses at massive prices – i.e. horses with an ostensibly low probability of winning – it doesn’t matter, now does it? (It wasn’t fancied anyway and the race is competitive. You mug! You optimist!Follow the Festival bandwagon. Join the party! Don’tcha know value is DEAD! A winner is a winner!! Lump on the favourite, sit back and have a glass of champagne. Enjoy life! Stop fretting in your ivory tower of value and LIVE!!)
They finally won. A winner is a winner.
I think I will jump on the wagon. The voices are right. They’re bang on the button. I’ve enjoyed trying to find the big ones, but it’s just not happening. Something has changed in the game. I’m clearly not clever enough to work out what it is, but something is subtly different.
I think I’ll reincarnate myself as a favourite backer, (like Mark Coton did with Raceform on Saturday) and enjoy myself as much as everyone else is doing at the big meetings this year. The racecourse gangs are drinking, gambling and fornicating like Roman senators while the gothic hordes are massing at the gates.
I don’t know about Rosencrantz and Gildernstern, but I reckon value betting is dead. In my opinion, of course.
Blimey Max, if all else fails just wait for the procaz to kick in….the following seems a bit foolish in light of your post. But then I’m only a humble mug punter and would suffocate in the rarified air of the shrewdies.
Two no-hopers at decent prices for today at Stratford: (3.20) Mapilut du Moulin and (3.55) Predicament both should be about 25 ‘ish.
1 x E/w Double.
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