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I am a Pats fan but do not think we do it Gronk keeps getting injured stays fit big players but otherwise no but my bets for season are.
NEW ORELEANS SAINTS 12/1 To win Superbowl
With Drew Brees in team can see him being top QB of year with
Jimmy Graham at tight end one of best in nfl.Brandin Cooks and
Kenny Stills top young WR.Also on defence they got Champ Bailey and got Jarius Byrd and there defense was strong already but better now too.PITTSBURGH STEELERS 40/1 EW
I can see them getting to final with Ben Roethilsberger being the best scrambling qb in nfl.Ryan Shazier and Jason Worilds are top linebackers and that defense is stronger now
Any nfl fans here and what bets for season
As you may guess from the username I’m a Pats man as well.
I reckon your Steelers each way bet is worth a go as they have the knack of winning games without playing well. As for the Saints I don’t think they have defence to get far in the playoffs.
The Lions looked good on Monday night. You are always waiting for them to self destruct but if they can keep heir heads then a trip to the NFC championship game is a real possibility.
The Pats will be up there but I don’t think their receiving corps is strong enough and the D will have to improve on Sunday’s efforts.
Hard to look past Seattle for a repeat this year but I don’t like backing favourites.
The Seahawks are nigh on unbeatable at home and their defence is very strong.
Big Ben is getting on a bit now but he’s been a terrific quarterback at making plays that just didn’t seem to be there and he’ll stroll into the Hall Of Fame some day. I would say both Pittsburgh and New England are slightly on the decline though and Denver were scoring points for fun last season before their disastrous implosion in the Superbowl.
I have been following the NFL for 30 years now and have supported the Redskins but I think the owner has run the franchise into mediocrity since he took over. Robert Griffin looks a potential bust to me at quarterback and they are a team with problems and no stability.
I fancy Green Bay as a bet this year and took a view that I would wait until after their first game because they faced an impossible looking away tie in Seattle as their seasonal opener. As expected they lost the game and went from 12/1 to 16/1, so that is the bet for me. They have a Superbowl winning quarterback back healthy and made some good signings to fill weak areas in the off-season. As the season progresses I expect them to gel as a unit and, as a strong home team themselves, they should make the play-offs. Often it is the case that the team who hits form come the playoffs does better than those who posted the best records over the season.
Green Bay face The Jets this week and are 8pt favs, so it’s a game they must win to kick start their challenge but I’d be a little wary of the 8pts spread. The Pats face a tricky looking visit to an improved looking Minnesota but I am not convinced the Vikings were as impressive as the scoreline suggested. The Steelers played last night and were beaten 26-6 by their bitter rivals The Ravens in Baltimore.
Of this weeks spreads I would be confident the Seahawks can concede 5.5 pts to San Diego who wilted against Arizona on Monday. The Cowboys are rebuilding to a large extent and fell behind badly against the 49ers before making some late headway in the second half. I think they may have a tricky season ahead and believe Tennessee can concede 3.5pts at home to Dallas.
So this weeks treble is:-
Seattle -5.5 (19/20)
New England -3 (20/19)
Tennessee -3.5 (20/19)
Gives combined odds just over 7/1
Green Bay 16/1 to win Superbowl
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I would agree that’s it’s what you do in the playoffs that count. You have to get there first though.
Green Bay are a decent bet although i still think the Lions have a real shot at the NFC Central. And Minnesota’s running game could make them competitive. We’ll know more tonight.
I would be happy to see the Seahawks repeat as I love watching that defence.
I would agree that’s it’s what you do in the playoffs that count. You have to get there first though.
Green Bay are a decent bet although i still think the Lions have a real shot at the NFC Central. And Minnesota’s running game could make them competitive. We’ll know more tonight.
I would be happy to see the Seahawks repeat as I love watching that defence.
Nice win for the Pats tonight but Tennessee fell into a hole early against Dallas going 16-0 down. That meant they couldn’t run the football and had to pass the ball to play catch-up. Incredibly Tennessee ended the game with just NINE rushing attempts and you can’t win games without offensive balance.
It is always frustrating to see a team’s defence look really strong one week and then get nothing like the same output the following week. Tennessee were strong on defence last week shutting down the Chiefs but they simply could not stop Demarco Murray running the ball for the Cowboys today. Allowing teams to run on you and not being able to run the ball yourselves is the most certain way to LOSE in the NFL.
Just to add insult to injury Green Bay have fallen into a 14 pt hole early against the Jets.
Another close loss for the Saints tonight and these 2 and 3 pt defeats are the sort of thing that erodes confidence. I remember a season a few years back where I had money on Green Bay at 33/1 and they lost eight games by one score or less when they had the ball with a chance to win or tie.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For those who don’t probe too far into the how’s and why’s of the NFL it might be of no concern what the stats say after a game.
There was one extraordinary stat from this week’s Seattle Seahawks game and that was the time of possession for each team. Of the 60 minutes Seattle had the ball for less than 18 minutes and the Chargers had it for more than 42 minutes. That is a rare occurrence for the share of the time is so lop-sided.
Even more mysterious is that, when the stats are one sided on time of possession, it normally means the team with the bulk of possession had a big day running the football, yet that was not the case in this game.
Seattle only had ten running attempts and, just like Tennessee earlier, couldn’t win with that imbalance on offence. Seattle have a feared defence but one way to counteract that is to keep them on the field for a long time and tire them out. That was the key to San Diego’s upset win this week.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Was set to win £200 last night but the Saints and Seahawks cost me, oh well.
Incredibly tricky one to pick this season, have no idea who’ll win the super bowl, maybe Denver? Could be setting up for a big upset though so maybe a random team.
It is pretty tough to get multiple bets landed on NFL games. Every week there seems to be an upset. Turnovers and injuries are both factors that can overcome even the best of teams.
I try to avoid games with spreads of more than 7 pts. I don’t know how many times I have had a team leading by 21pts and they then go into a defensive shell and let the other team slowly put two scores on the board, letting the clock run down and with no obligation to cover the spread.
This week I am expecting a rejuvenated Houston Texans team to be able to go into New York and concede two points to a Giants team who have had a poor start. The Giants are in a general decline and have lost both of their games this season. Houston look much more up to pace and the disjointed looking Giants may have a tough year ahead.
There is an early rematch of the Superbowl as Seattle play host to Denver this week. The Broncos have started with two wins but haven’t set the heather on fire the way they did last season. As I have said, Seattle had a freakishly low time of possession stat in their loss to the Chargers. Stats like that tend to bounce back to the average in American Football and they will be fired up to erase that poor effort last week. Nigh on unbeatable at home, with the crowd noise to help making signal calling tough for opponents, I fully expect them to win this and it then remains as to whether they can cover the 5pts concession. I think they will be trying to make a statement, as well as win this game so I believe they will win by 7 or more points.
For the treble I am expecting San Francisco to bounce back from a game against the Chicago Bears which they must still be pondering how they lost. Up 20-7 and seemingly cruising, they let the Bears get back into it with interceptions and generally sloppy play which saw the Chicago team score 21 unanswered 4th Quarter points. The 49’s will be well drilled to eliminate the errors this week in Arizona. The Cardinals have won their two games but more or less stole the first game they won and then beat the beleaguered looking Giants second time. I think this is a reality check for them against a much tougher 49ers defence and you could visualise the San Francisco team controlling this game and beating the three point concession on the spread.
This weeks treble:-
Houston -2pts (19/20)
Seattle -5pts (19/20)
San Francisco -3pts (evs)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
Hate betting the spread in NFL for the exact reason you said, the team is under no obligation to oblige and becoming soft in the latter stages of the game often f***s you over, I prefer picking 2/3 teams at a short price that I’m confident in. Obviously the potential profit isn’t as big but I usually feel much more confident with this kind of bet than I do with the spread.
I really like the Houston and SF bets though, especially SF.
Hate betting the spread in NFL for the exact reason you said, the team is under no obligation to oblige and becoming soft in the latter stages of the game often f***s you over, I prefer picking 2/3 teams at a short price that I’m confident in. Obviously the potential profit isn’t as big but I usually feel much more confident with this kind of bet than I do with the spread.
I really like the Houston and SF bets though, especially SF.
There was an extreme example of the playing soft phenomenon last night. On this occasion though, it made no difference to the Spread. The feckless looking Tampa Bay team went 28-0 down to Atlanta in a hurry and never got into the game. They found themselves 56-0 down going into the 4th Quarter but the Falcons took the foot off the neck and allowed two touchdowns in what the pundits call "Garbage Time", basically a stage of the game where scores are misleading due to the game being over as a contest and the leading team just running the clock down, rather than keep playing hard. I was watching the score updates on the NFL website to pass the time between the Referendum results coming in and it was a game that would have been stopped had it been a boxing match.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, I didn’t get far this week. The Houston Texans just couldn’t stop the Giant’s running game and their quarterback had a stinker, turning the ball over.
In an unpredictable league it looks like it just got more hard to trust anybody to put two decent back to back shows in.
Green Bay just can’t run the football and that puts too much on Aaron Rodger’s shoulders. It’s early days really but they haven’t settled anywhere near as well as I had hoped for. They are a team lacking confidence.
I have stuck a few quid on Carolina. They are becoming one of the best defensive teams in the league and at 22/1 I feel they are a better prospect than the Pack. I am hoping for a strong show when they host Pittsburgh tonight.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- Total Posts 764
There was an extreme example of the playing soft phenomenon last night. On this occasion though, it made no difference to the Spread. The feckless looking Tampa Bay team went 28-0 down to Atlanta in a hurry and never got into the game. They found themselves 56-0 down going into the 4th Quarter but the Falcons took the foot off the neck and allowed two touchdowns in what the pundits call "Garbage Time", basically a stage of the game where scores are misleading due to the game being over as a contest and the leading team just running the clock down, rather than keep playing hard. I was watching the score updates on the NFL website to pass the time between the Referendum results coming in and it was a game that would have been stopped had it been a boxing match.
After all we said I ended up taking Atlanta -12 at 13/5 just before kickoff, if ever a match was going to be a blow-out then it was that one, an incredibly good passing offense playing at home to a team that gives up a lot of points and was missing their top RB, fell asleep and woke up having missed the first ten minutes, checked online and couldn’t believe they were already 14-0 up, refreshed it 2 more times in the next 3 minutes and it was 28-0! Madness.
- Total Posts 764
Well, I didn’t get far this week. The Houston Texans just couldn’t stop the Giant’s running game and their quarterback had a stinker, turning the ball over.
In an unpredictable league it looks like it just got more hard to trust anybody to put two decent back to back shows in.
Green Bay just can’t run the football and that puts too much on Aaron Rodger’s shoulders. It’s early days really but they haven’t settled anywhere near as well as I had hoped for. They are a team lacking confidence.
I have stuck a few quid on Carolina. They are becoming one of the best defensive teams in the league and at 22/1 I feel they are a better prospect than the Pack. I am hoping for a strong show when they host Pittsburgh tonight.
You got unlucky with Foster being out for the Texans, that set up for the whole team to fall, too much pressure was on their QB and defense because they just couldn’t get the ball rolling.
The problem at the moment seems to be there aren’t many great teams and lots and lots of average ones, meaning they can put up great performances but just aren’t consistent enough to count on when betting.
I didn’t see the Carolina game last night but like you fully expected to win, especially considering the Steelers couldn’t get anything going on offense last week.
Do you play the NFL fantasy game Steve? And do you support anyone?
Well, I didn’t get far this week. The Houston Texans just couldn’t stop the Giant’s running game and their quarterback had a stinker, turning the ball over.
In an unpredictable league it looks like it just got more hard to trust anybody to put two decent back to back shows in.
Green Bay just can’t run the football and that puts too much on Aaron Rodger’s shoulders. It’s early days really but they haven’t settled anywhere near as well as I had hoped for. They are a team lacking confidence.
I have stuck a few quid on Carolina. They are becoming one of the best defensive teams in the league and at 22/1 I feel they are a better prospect than the Pack. I am hoping for a strong show when they host Pittsburgh tonight.
You got unlucky with Foster being out for the Texans, that set up for the whole team to fall, too much pressure was on their QB and defense because they just couldn’t get the ball rolling.
The problem at the moment seems to be there aren’t many great teams and lots and lots of average ones, meaning they can put up great performances but just aren’t consistent enough to count on when betting.
I didn’t see the Carolina game last night but like you fully expected to win, especially considering the Steelers couldn’t get anything going on offense last week.
Do you play the NFL fantasy game Steve? And do you support anyone?
Hi Ben, I have followed the Redskins for 30 odd years but despise the current owner. He has made bad decisions time and time again, drafted badly and made bizarre coaching appointments. They look a doomed franchise for now.
I don’t follow the Fantasy Leagues, I’ve never had any luck with that type of thing and you need a shed load to hit the big scores in that game.
Houston were poor last week but their quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a boom or bust guy who usually throws a few interceptions when he’s having an off day. He was the same at Buffalo.
Pittsburgh woke up with a bang in Carolina but I feel the Panthers were not as bad as the score suggested. I actually stuck a few quid more on them, as I feel the 50/1 after the loss was too much of an overreaction.
The Panthers managed to hold Pittsburgh to field goals early in the game but were really badly caught out by being too aggressive when they had the Steelers in third and very long situations. One in particular when they had them in 3rd and 22 and allowed a big run that went for 81 yards and that really changed the momentum big time.
Every team has two or three games a season where nothing goes right in a game and they don’t play their best. We are early in the season and I still believe there is a nucleus of talent in Carolina. They have young receivers who can only progress with experience and the defence will have better days than they did last week when they couldn’t stifle the Pittburgh running game.
The 49ers let it get away from them in the 2nd half again last week. That might be a worry for them playing Philadelphia this week, as the Eagles have been strong in the second half so far this season. The flip side of that is that the Eagles have been playing lesser teams though and have started slowly in their games. I feel the 49ers can’t afford to let another one slip away and I expect them to win by 7 or more. -4.5pts looks good to me
After Atlanta’s rout last week you might feel they are set up for a fall the following week but I think they can cope with giving 3pts to the Vikings and they should be fresh after coasting home last week and having extra time to prepare with their last game being a Thursday fixture.
Green Bay have been disappointing and they can’t get the running game going. Defences can key on Aaron Rodgers and the receiving corps making it tough to bring any play action to the table. I watched the Bears last week and although they won their defensive secondary was seriously banged up. This leaves them vulnerable to Green Bay’s strength I believe and I think the Pack will be fired up against their big rivals this week. -1.5pts would have looked a gift had Green Bay started better but with both teams having recorded similar wins over the Jets I think the Pack can win by between 3 and 7 points. I’ll take a field goal win!
This week’s treble:-
San Francisco -4.5pts
Green Bay -1.5pts
Atlanta -3ptsThanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Two out of three on the treble and Atlanta were unlucky with injuries on the offensive that meant they had to switch one of their Tight Ends to play at Tackle and that’s too big an ask at the top level of football.
Atlanta are a better home team than on the road and should bounce back if they get their line shored up again.
Green Bay won but it was a puzzling game against the Bears. Chicago held a massive time of possession advantage and ran the football well. The mysterious thing is why you want to run the ball and eat the clock when you are 21 pts behind? That sort of thing is great when you are in the lead but useless when you need to play catch-up football.
I would be wary of Green Bay going forward from this, as they still can’t run the ball and they will meet teams who use more savvy tactics than the Bears did this week. Strange coaching call there.
Carolina got beat up again, yet there wasn’t actually that much between the teams on most of the stats. Baltimore had a bit more offense but there wasn’t the gulf that the score would have suggested.
Pittsburgh came off a great performance with a loss to a team (Tampa Bay) who had looked as feckless as they come the previous week.
At least the 49ers managed to close out the game this week and they narrowly covered the spread.
Meatloaf sang that "Two out of three ain’t bad" but that means bugger all to the bookies when you have a treble on!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Green Bay destroyed Minnesota in the Thursday night game but I wouldn’t get too carried away by the scoreline. On the plus side the Packers ran the ball better but it was one of those games where a lot of points were generated in ratio to the amount of yards gained.
Nothing really went right for the Vikings and turnovers helped put them in a hole they could never climb out of. It is the sort of scenario that often leads to a bigger points spread than truly warranted the following week and it will be interesting to see what start the Dolphins get next week against Green Bay.
This week sees a must win scenario for the Panthers after a two win-two loss sequence. The Bears are coming to town on Sunday and they are hurting after injuries to the defence and a strange game against Green Bay where they ran the ball well, but in a situation where they needed to be catching up and seemed afraid to pass the ball. Back at home I expect Carolina to perform better on both sides of the ball this week and beat the 2.5pts concession on the spread.
The surprise package this year for me has been the Cowboys, the offensive line has always been a weakness for them and they seem to have been able to address that this year. Tony Romo is hot on his day but seems to have consistency issues as the season gets into the closing stages. Running back Demarco Murray has the highest average per carry in the NFL and we need to believe that the Dallas team can continue their good form against a Houston team who are probably not as good as their 3-1 record suggests. I expect Dallas to prevail by about 10pts here and cover the 6.5 spread.
Making up the treble this week is San Francisco. They face a Chiefs team who hammered New England last week but the Patriots were pitiful that day and the Chiefs are away from home this week facing a lot tougher defence.
There are rumours of unease between coach Jim Harbaugh and his players but the 49ers managed to finish their game last week after letting two games slip from their grasp earlier. I expect them to be able to post a touchdown or two field goal superiority over Kansas this week and cover the 5.5pts spread.
Carolina -2.5pts
Dallas -6.5pts
San Francisco -5.5pts
Treble
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
So there we have it. Just 5 weeks into the season and there are no unbeaten teams left.
This is as hard a season to predict as I can remember. Every week is throwing up head scratching results and no side has looked really impressive. In the AFC the Broncos still look the team to beat as they rack up points on offence but the old mantra that offence wins games and defence wins championships is lurking at the back of my mind.
The Chargers are impressing but I still feel they will beat themselves at some point. The Ravens and Bengals may well make the playoffs but don’t look like Super Bowl teams and ditto the Pats, so it may be the Colts who provide the biggest challenge to Denver.
In the NFC Seattle impressed me on Monday night despite the penalties, botched snaps and drops. But it’s so hard to repeat. The Niners haven’t impressed at all but are the sort of side who can make a run at the end of the season. Detroit and Arizona don’t have the winning mentality(or a kicker in the Lions case) I just can’t have Chicago while Cutler’s the QB.
The East is up for grabs but Philly can’t keep relying on special teams and defence while the Giants have overcome a horrendous start and Dallas are moving along quietly.
The Packers look to be hitting their stride and should take the NFC North whilst the South is a close call between the hot and cold Panthers and a Falcons side that can’t win away.
So in summary who will win the big one? How the heck do i know. Ok, at a push, I will say San Fran to beat Denver.
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