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Easy win for Seattle on Thursday as they stifled a pop gun 49ers offence.
My crap weekend kept going though, as Baltimore blew a 10pt lead and lost by a point late on to San Diego.
Andy Dalton had another terrible game with three interceptions and they were lucky to win by one point. This Cincinnati team never play well when I back them and always seem to have a belter on offence when I’m against them.
Pittsburgh rallied but couldn’t quite catch New Orleans after a bad start by Big Ben at quarterback. This Saints team are putting up some good offence but really should be putting away a team whose quarterback had 58 passing attempts in the game, a crazy imbalance of offence.
Baltimore will be sick after failing to cash in on the Pittsburgh loss and Cincinnati seem likely to win this division by default before a probable early meltdown in the playoffs.
In one of the craziest games I have seen St Louis only held the ball for 23 minutes of the 60 but beat the Raiders 52-0. Heads need to start rolling in Oakland after that charade.
The New York Giants also need to be thinking of releasing Tom Coughlin Dodger, as either he, or the team, looked well past their sell-by date in blowing a lead against the hapless Jaguars.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A good match between Green Bay and The Patriots on Sunday saw the Pack hold out for the win after a second half less inspired than the first. As I had thought, the amount of scoring allowed for the margin between the teams coming to a situation where Green Bay could win the game but the Patriots would cover the spread. In fact, it probably should have happened, because The Patriots had a field goal attempt that would have made the deficit two points. However, there was a bad snap on the attempt and the New England kicker couldn’t get good contact on the ball and it went wide.
Some big looking spreads this week and there is a need to go with away teams for some of the picks this week.
Indianapolis are going well in the main and although they faced a Redskins team with problems last week I think they can do enough to outclass a Cleveland team which is a bit in transition at the moment. Andrew Luck is putting up solid figures and should score enough with his arm to cover a 4pt concession on the spread.
Dallas had a setback against Philadelphia but face a much less talented team this week in Chicago. The Bears defence is a shadow of some of their great teams and Dallas has offensive firepower that should out-gun the Bears. The only concern is a poor record in December for Tony Romo in previous seasons. For whatever reason, when the games get more important for playoff prospects he tends to make more mistakes with his decisions. They should win by more than the 3.5 pt handicap though.
Seattle saw The 49ers off but they face a much tougher assignment in Philadelphia this week. The Eagles should win their division and if they can beat Seattle this week it may mean that the defending champions are left scrapping for a wild card route into the playoffs. I’ll back the more potent Philadelphia offence to win through against the good Seattle defence and concede the 1pt handicap to the Seahawks.
The Patriots go to San Diego this week and will be keen to bounce back after losing in Green Bay. The Chargers rallied late to beat Baltimore but face a tougher offence this week. I think Tom Brady and his troops can carve out a win by 6 pts or more here and cover the 3.5pt spread.
A couple of games worth mentioning for possible spread upsets are Minnesota and Green Bay. Both teams won last week but on the spreads it could be tricky this week.
Minnesota blocked two punts and took them in for scores this week. That type of points scoring is not sustainable and may never occur in a game again for years. The Jets gave Miami a fright this week and getting six points, with no pressure to win, they may be a banana skin team.
Similar comments apply to Green Bay, they are going well but Atlanta pulled off a good win over Arizona and can still win their division. They may just surprise the Packers on the spread, getting a 12pt start.
I always worry about that size of handicap, because, if the underdog gets the ball first and manages to score a touchdown, it needs three touchdowns from the favourites to get ahead on the spread from 19pts behind.
This weeks bet:
Philadelphia -1
New England -3.5
Dallas -3.5
Indianapolis -4
Fourfold.
Outright betting for Superbowl.
Current best value Indianapolis 20/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A comfortable win for The Cowboys on Thursday night. The Bears were flattered by three 4th quarter touchdowns when the game was already out of reach. The spread was easily covered.
Sadly the same wasn’t true with Indianapolis who only won by one point. The kiss of death struck again as Andrew Luck threw two interceptions and Colts managed to fumble the ball FOUR times, losing two of them. Four turnovers usually kills a team and it’s a measure of their superiority that they could still win despite the give aways.
The main problem the Colts had was an inability to run the football and Andrew Luck had more than fifty passing attempts. You need more balance than that on offence to keep the opposing defence guessing.
New Orleans suffered a humiliating and potentially season wrecking thumping from a Carolina team who have been a big disappointment after a promising start. There is more talent on this Panthers team than they have shown this year and for the Saints, they picked the wrong week to finally show something.
This was an abysmal effort from the Saints defence this week and big John Ryan will have some explaining to do this week in the debrief.
Pittsburgh firmly put the inconsistent Bengals in their place and the questions need to be asked about a Cincinnati defence who conceded big yards, both on the ground and through the air today.
The Redskins were utterly feckless today and this shambolic franchise lurches to ever new lows at every turn. This is a team stifled by the poison of an owner who can’t make one good decision for the good of the franchise and the fans are being short-changed in a big way.
Elsewhere, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Jacksonville kept pace with the Skins for the worst team in the NFL this year, along with the poor old Raiders.
Despite a rare overtime touchdown, Minnesota just failed to cover the spread against the pretty grim Jets team.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Patriots covered the spread against San Diego after a match where both teams got bogged down on offence for a surprising portion of the game. In a week where I should have had three out of four, Seattle simply put up one of their best games of the season and stifled the fast paced Eagles offence.
Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez is not top quality but usually gets more than he was able to provide offensively against the reigning champions. The Seahawks put themselves back in the hunt with this good showing and will be dangerous if holding this form, which they haven’t really showed for several weeks now. I picked the wrong week to stay against them.
This week sees some crucial games and none more so than Cincinnati at Cleveland. The Browns won the first meeting, where Andy Dalton was awful for the Bengals but with Pittsburgh having beaten them last week Cincinnati must win here to keep control of the division, where their tie with Carolina may yet prove the deciding factor.
Andy Dalton actually had a good game despite the loss to Pittsburgh and the Bengals have been playing better away from home, so getting 1.5 pts on the spread I will take Cincinnati in the belief that they are slightly better than Cleveland, who couldn’t translate four turnovers into a win against the Colts.
Buffalo are a team operating at better than halfway in the NFL echelons but they have Green Bay coming to town this week. Green Bay were well ahead against Atlanta but ultimately only won by six points, so I think they will have got the message about taking the foot off the gas. Buffalo weather can be very like Green Bay at this time of year, so the Packers should feel right at home, unlike some other NFL teams going to Buffalo in winter. Green Bay will be keen to win because Detroit are keeping the pressure on in the division and it will be a big advantage if Green Bay can end the year with the most wins in the NFC, to ensure home games all the way to the Superbowl. The spread is 4.5 pts and I think the Packers can cover that, with Detroit warm favourites to beat Minnesota and keep the gap at least the same.
The going is getting tough for San Diego, who were as low as 10/1 to win the Superbowl at one stage. Now 50/1, things just got worse with Denver coming to town this week. The Broncos have had a few disappointing games but still seem to score enough points to win most weeks and they will be keen to heap some more misery on the Chargers play off prospects on Sunday. I’ll back Peyton Manning to lead the Broncos to a 6-10pt win and cover the 4pts spread.
The Giants host the Redskins this week and in past seasons this might have had serious ramifications for the playoffs. This year both teams are struggling but the Redskins have brought new meaning to the word incompetence and I think the Giants will win by 10 or more points here. The New York team is a must bet at -6.5 pts with jobs to play for if nothing else. The Redskins can anticipate the annual cull that will surely start with Jay Gruden getting his P45 shortly.
This weeks bet:-
Cincinatti +1.5
Green Bay -4.5
Denver -4
New York Giants -6.5
Fourfold
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This weeks bet:-
Cincinatti +1.5
Green Bay -4.5
Denver -4
New York Giants -6.5
Fourfold
What can you say? I should have collected this week.
Cincinnati won by 30 pts
Denver won by 12 pts
NY Giants won by 11pts
But Green Bay managed to
lose
Aaron Rogers didn’t just have a bad game, he had the worst game of his 10 year career with all time lows in
three
passing categories.
One of the interceptions he threw saw him miss a wide open Jordy Nelson on the other side of the field and he had nobody near him and would have been able to run the length of the field for a touchdown. There was a perfect pass that the same receiver somehow dropped when he would probably have scored. There were half a dozen other passes dropped by receivers and one of the Green Bay punts was blocked. The icing on the cake was allowing a punt to be returned 75 yards for a touchdown and at one stage the punter’s average per punt was 9 yards. The average for that stat is usually over 40yds.
Despite those nightmares the Packers actually still had more offence than Buffalo and it beggars belief that a team with so little offence could have won the game but the Packers simply had a nightmare day.
To compound Green Bay’s misery, Detroit came from 14-0 down against Minnesota, to win 16-14 and Seattle beat the feckless on Offence 49ers who are surely running themselves out of the playoffs after another feeble 7pts from the highly paid quarterback who would surely be on buttons for wages if paid by the point scored.
Most of the play off contenders, apart from Green Bay have won this week and there is a crucial clash between Dallas and Philadelphia tonight.
Green Bay? More like Brown Bay this week. Shockingly bad from Aaron Todgers.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just two weeks of the regular season to go and teams can keep in contention, secure play off berths or rule themselves right out of it this week.
A few spreads look too big to get involved with and this mug is having another stab after 3 from 4 last week.
The first game is the clash between two bad teams. Tennessee and Jacksonville. On my scale the Titans are just about the worst team in the league and I believe that the Jaguars can at least come into this game with pride to play for, being the home team. The Titans are probably hoping to end the season with the worst record in the league and tie up the 1st overall pick in the college draft next year. My conclusion is that Jacksonville should win by 6 or 7 pts and cover the 3.5 pts spread.
Buffalo met a Green Bay team that had a nightmare outing last week. They were most certainly flattered there but they can still make the play offs and travel to Oakland to face a Raiders team having a grim season. If Buffalo can’t win this, then they don’t deserve a place in the playoffs. I’ll take them to win by more than the 5.5pt handicap they concede to the Raiders.
Cincinnati had a great win last week but it would be wise to keep a lid on expectations against a stronger Denver team this week. Cleveland started their rookie quarterback Johnny Manziel (an a-hole by all accounts) at the request of their fans but the new man had a disastrous debut, making tons of mistakes and the Bengal’s task was made really easy. Andy Dalton has a poor record in primetime TV slots and will have the eyes of America on him bigtime in the Monday night match that is broadcast nationwide. Even if the quarterback doesn’t melt under the TV lights they face a stiff task against Denver, who I expect to win by 7pts and beat the 3pt concession to Cincinnati on the spread.
The 49ers are now out of the playoffs due to their loss and other teams wins last week. They have nothing to play for and have been struggling to score many points this year. With San Diego still having something to aim for I’ll back them to get a point from San Francisco on the spread and outscore the 49ers struggling offence.
Finally, Dallas host Indianapolis in one of the best match-ups this week. I will take the Cowboy’s good running game to make the difference and concede the 3pts to the Colts, who can be good but struggle to run the ball.
This week’s bet:-
Jacksonville -3.5
Buffalo -5.5
Denver -3
San Diego +1
Dallas -3
Fivefold
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very wisely it seems most TRFers have steered clear of the NFL this season.
There have been several bizzare results this year and serious under-performing from prominent teams.
Three out of five on the spread last week with Buffalo seriously bottling it against a modest Raiders team. A gutless performance that saw them miss out on keeping momentum towards the playoffs, where they haven’t been for a long time.
Cincinnati won their first prime time game for ages as Peyton Manning, rather than Andy Dalton melted under the TV glare with 4 interceptions in one of his worst ever games. I would have to rule Denver out of Superbowl contention with that sort of show from a Quarterback who only managed one Superbowl win and whom had a nightmare in the final last year.
Seattle seem to have peaked at the right time and are worthy favourites now that Green Bay let home field advantage slip from their grasp. I still have hopes of the Packers as my main bet at 16/1 but there is a slight nag about whether they have the balance to win it all.
Carolina may sneak into the playoffs in the NFL’s weakest division but I think Atlanta will show more bottle and cause controversy as a playoff team with a losing record on the season.
Pittsburgh look as good as any some weeks and then disappoint for no given reason. I think they can beat Cincinnati this week in another game where Andy Dalton has to face the primetime coverage.
This weeks picks:-
Dallas -4.5
Atlanta -3
Pittsburgh -3.5
New England -5.5
Minnesota -6.5Fivefold
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The playoffs are finally here and it’s good to see that my two bets are still alive. I don’t believe for one minute Carolina are capable of doing much but at least they managed to get there after a terrible slump during the season. They were flattered by a big special teams showing against an awful Atlanta team effort that saw their head coach get sacked.
New England pulled Tom Brady out early against Buffalo to rest him for the playoffs. That tactic has back-fired in the past when the rested QB looks a bit out of sorts after a couple of weeks on the sideline. We will see and I can’t fancy them to go all the way at odds of as low as 5/2.
Green Bay are still well in the mix but they probably need to end up in Seattle on the way and a win there was beyond them in the first week of the season.
Two games tonight with no banana skins in the form of teams resting star players.
My banker this week is Dallas to beat Detroit. The Lions have won a few tough games this season but they were no match for Green Bay last week with the Division on the line. With one of the best running games in the league and Tony Romo in the form of his life The Cowboys should take this by 10-14 points in my opinion and -6.5 on the spread is the first gift of the year.
The other team I fancy to use home advantage is Pittsburgh, who should see off a slightly disappointing Ravens team. I would suggest taking Pittburgh -4.5 pts at odds of 13/10
I am going against Carolina on the spread as I believe it will be a low scoring affair against Arizona. The Cardinals have hit a slump but have a good defence and Carolina generated little offence from Cam Newton being flattered on the scoreline by a massive special teams effort. Arizona +5.5pts is the logical call in a game that may be decided by a field goal.
Finally I will side with Cincinnati because Indianapolis can’t seem to run the ball and have had a couple of awful games this year. Although the same can be said about the Bengals I feel they may just have slightly more balance and they get a 3.5 start.
Dallas -6.5
Arizona +5.5
Pittsburgh -4.5
Cincinnati +3.5
Fourfold
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Total disaster this week but in mitigation it has to be said that Cincinnati were missing their two best receivers and Arizona played with their 4th string Quarterback due to injuries.
Dallas started badly but got the job done and Baltimore cashed in on a lack lustre performance from Pittsburgh.
The Ravens started well but got bogged down as Pittsburgh started to control the football. The big problem for The Steelers was only putting three field goals on the board, resulting in a first half which saw them have the ball 20 minutes to Baltimore’s 10 minutes, yet go in trailing by a half point to the Ravens. That can tend to come back to haunt a team and it did so as Big Ben started making bad mistakes resulting in turnovers.
Indianapolis got a lot more tune out of their running game this week and a decent defensive effort saw them stymie a Cincinnati offence which lacked good targets for Andy Dalton, due to their best receivers being injured. The Colts move on to Denver now, still largely dismissed as realistic Superbowl candidates. They have the potential for an upset if they can keep balance in the offence.
Arizona put up the poorest ever offensive effort in the history of the playoffs. Their quarterback could do little right and the game saw everything that could go wrong, go wrong in a bad way. They had chances to make a go of it but coughed the ball back up when they should have cashed in. I think that was the worst playoff game I ever saw and Carolina will be crushed by Seattle if they play like that again this week.
Detroit got a lot of pressure on Tony Romo early but once they established a decent lead they seemed to play more conservatively and it back-fired as Tony Romo started to get time to find his receivers. As the Sky Sports pundit said:-
"If you start playing not to lose a game, you can end up not winning the game"
Answers to that one on a postcard please! Although in mitigation he is American.
I have backed two teams this season (Green Bay and Carolina) and gave the nod as best current value to another two (Indianapolis and Dallas) Although coming close a few times, none of the multiple weekly bets was landed but there is some sense of pride in naming four teams that are all still in the tournament at the stage where only eight teams are left in.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This is the nervous week when you have an ante-post bet still going.
With Green Bay at 16/1 as the main bet of the year this is the worst stage to see your bet eliminated. Not reaching the actual Superbowl is galling at this late stage with only one more win needed to go to "the show"
I feel that losing the home field advantage was key for Green Bay and they go to a tough venue to win at in Seattle. A calf injury has reduced Aaron Rogers mobility and that will be a bigger factor against a swarming Seahawks defence than it was against Dallas.
I’ll be happy to be proved wrong but I feel Seattle can stifle the Green Bay offence and win this.
In the other game Indianapolis will need to step up on offence. Their defence kept them in it against Denver after two Andrew Luck interceptions but they will have more to do with the more mobile Tom Brady and his deeper threat than the static Peyton Manning who seemed afraid to throw anything over the top in an attempt to get back into the game, settling for underneath short completions instead. Their last few drives in a game they needed to get back into in a hurry were embarrassingly unambitious and Denver went out of the play-offs with a whimper. Coach John Fox has now left by mutual consent with the owner and management.
Indianapolis will need to put up a strong offensive show to keep pace this week and may find life very tough if they go two scores back here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
For once I got both games right. Indianapolis did indeed find life tough after getting a couple of scores back.
Gutted for Green Bay though, not just the fact that I had them at 16/1 but they should have won and won comfortably.
That match was easily the worst coached game I have ever seen. Far too negative and they could have crushed Seattle had they been more aggressive when deep in Seattle territory. Turnovers were not cashed in on and the play calling was too predictable when trying to run the clock down. Numb nuts plays from several Green Bay players let the Seahawks back in but the coaches let the players down and you could see disaster beckoning.
The onside kick saw a player who was there to block Seattle players and let wide receiver Jordy Nelson, who has the best catching hands on the team, catch the kickoff. However the big lummox saw a chance for glory himself and put up his big feckless hands in an effort to catch it himself. He missed spectacularly and the ball hit him in the face, before bouncing off to be recovered by Seattle. The rest is history now.
I think Seattle have got here without playing great football and I strongly fancy New England to give them quite a serious beating in the Superbowl.
Last year Peyton Manning choked very early and the game was over before it really got started. Despite his success and ensured Hall Of Fame place, he will always carry the downer of not winning more Superbowls.
Tom Brady has no such concerns, with Hall Of Fame to come and multiple Superbowl rings secured. The Patriots have the best coach I have ever seen and they will be A1 on the night. If they don’t win by 14 pts or more I will be mildly shocked.
A wages job straight up for me and I am going to have a few quid on
New England -10.5 pts at 7/2
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very unlucky with Green Bay David, thought you were on a winner for 99% of the game with Seattle. I think ‘lummox’ is the best way of describing the fella who tried to catch that ball. It was bordering on the farcical. Good luck with your bet tonight, haven’t decided whether it’ll be Super Bowl or Super Bed for me yet.
Very happy that my Pats won in one of the best superbowls i seen so exciting.Thought it was all over after somehow he caught it at 5yd line.But why they not run it for Lynch crazy it was.
Steve what your thoughts on game
Any early thoughts for next season
It was a great finish to a game that started out like New England might walk it and land my handicap bet. They messed up their first opportunity and never cashed in on the phase of the game where Seattle couldn’t get going on offence. It ended up level at half-time despite the Patriots creating far more offensive output and that was probably down to the defence seemingly incapable of dealing with the deep throws attempted by the Seahawks.
New England looked rattled at one stage and couldn’t seem to do anything right for a fair section of the game, but they rallied well and took the lead, although there was still enough time for Seattle to reply. Why the coach called a passing play when their running back is one of the best short yardage runners in the league is a mystery. Perhaps Pete Carroll expected the other team to call a time out and when there was less time on the clock than he expected, he may have felt they might have been short on time if they ran it and the play got stuffed. That might have left them having to throw the ball twice in order to guarantee two shots at it.
It made for an exciting ending but it was sickening for Seattle fans. I’m just glad the Pats won straight up, as I had given up on them covering the handicap after the two interceptions thrown by Brady and the phase where they allowed Seattle touchdowns from very little offence generated.
I’m disappointed Green Bay didn’t get there, I am sure their offence would have given the Patriots an awful lot more trouble than Seattle, who were all about running the ball and mixing the odd deep throw in, which came off for them an awful lot more than normally would have been the case.
It’s early to be looking at next season Darren, teams will be working out how many of their best players they can afford to keep and which ones will have to move to different teams. The first betting shows have no value on Seattle as 6/1 favs, with New England 15/2 making little appeal either, with Tom Brady turning 38 next birthday. Green Bay are 9/1 and virtually a shoo-in for the play offs next year if all remains well with Aaron Rogers, who is only 31 despite his experience.
If forced to have a bet now, Dallas would be a consideration at 16/1 with the trio of Romo, Bryant and Murray likely to continue as one of the best offensive backbones in the league. They need more in their defence to be a true all-the-way shout and they could do with more depth to their overall roster. They should win the division again next season.
At bigger prices I think Kansas at 40/1 might be in the mix, they lost momentum this season but have a good defence and are a candidate for the division next year as Denver look to have a problem with Peyton Manning reaching an age where regression looks very probable. Andy Reid is a good coach and will be looking to make Kansas a contender.
Also at 40/1 are Arizona and they put up a good record last year with their excellent defence. Their play-off run ended quickly due to quarterback injuries and having to play a QB who was out of his depth putting up the worst stats ever in a play-off game. They had a formidable 7-1 home record last year and I reckon they can belie the big odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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