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Well Green Bay destroyed Minnesota in the Thursday night game but I wouldn’t get too carried away by the scoreline. On the plus side the Packers ran the ball better but it was one of those games where a lot of points were generated in ratio to the amount of yards gained.
Nothing really went right for the Vikings and turnovers helped put them in a hole they could never climb out of. It is the sort of scenario that often leads to a bigger points spread than truly warranted the following week and it will be interesting to see what start the Dolphins get next week against Green Bay.
This week sees a must win scenario for the Panthers after a two win-two loss sequence. The Bears are coming to town on Sunday and they are hurting after injuries to the defence and a strange game against Green Bay where they ran the ball well, but in a situation where they needed to be catching up and seemed afraid to pass the ball. Back at home I expect Carolina to perform better on both sides of the ball this week and beat the 2.5pts concession on the spread.
The surprise package this year for me has been the Cowboys, the offensive line has always been a weakness for them and they seem to have been able to address that this year. Tony Romo is hot on his day but seems to have consistency issues as the season gets into the closing stages. Running back Demarco Murray has the highest average per carry in the NFL and we need to believe that the Dallas team can continue their good form against a Houston team who are probably not as good as their 3-1 record suggests. I expect Dallas to prevail by about 10pts here and cover the 6.5 spread.
Making up the treble this week is San Francisco. They face a Chiefs team who hammered New England last week but the Patriots were pitiful that day and the Chiefs are away from home this week facing a lot tougher defence.
There are rumours of unease between coach Jim Harbaugh and his players but the 49ers managed to finish their game last week after letting two games slip from their grasp earlier. I expect them to be able to post a touchdown or two field goal superiority over Kansas this week and cover the 5.5pts spread.
Carolina -2.5pts
Dallas -6.5pts
San Francisco -5.5pts
Treble
Well, all three teams won but Dallas let Houston get back into it late on and once it went to overtime the bet was lost because there are no extra points kicked for overtime touchdowns. Looking at the stats the Cowboys should have run out comfortable winners but that’s the danger with spread betting.
San Francisco managed to come up an agonising half point short on the spread. They also should have prevailed by more but it didn’t help that the guy who caught a late interception made no attempt to return it when there seemed a good opportunity to do so. He settled for falling to the ground and the team then ran the time off the clock.
Ironically, The Panthers covered the spread but probably played the least well. They got off to a bad start and another turnover appeared to put them in a hole against the Bears. I was surprised to see them rally and win by seven but fear that was due to Chicago’s weaknesses rather than their strength. Carolina well improve yet but the defence has to step up an notch and the offence needs more from the running game.
There are a fair few teams this year struggling to find much production on the ground and it’s been tough to nominate a team who could be reliable long term.
Two games last week saw immense passing attempts from the winning quarterbacks. Andrew Luck had 49 attempts in the Colts win over Baltimore, while Drew Brees had a whopping 57 attempts for New Orleans against Tampa Bay.
Those numbers of attempts only usually arise because you are playing catch up on the scores or because you can’t run the ball at all. Those numbers of attempts can often backfire as defences realise they can largely commit to defending the pass. The other problem is that not a lot of time comes off the clock with the inevitable incompletions and your defence doesn’t get the same time to rest between drives on the sideline.
New Orleans had a large advantage over Tampa on net yards gained in the game and should have won comfortably based on the stats. How it went to overtime is a mystery and I am happy to go against Tampa Bay this week, believing they were flattered by the score this week.
This weeks treble again includes the 49ers. They are doing OK but haven’t hit full form yet. They are apparently uneasy with their head coach but they seem right to click one of these weeks and win by a couple of scores. They visit the Rams for Monday Night Football this week, where, back in the day, home underdogs were usually worth following on the spread. I am pretty confident San Francisco can come into St Louis and prevail by 7 to 10 pts and cover the 3.5 spread at even money.
The second leg is going to be Atlanta because they are much better when playing at home. Add in a Chicago team with injuries coming in after letting a good lead slip against Carolina and a beating by Green Bay the week before and I am confident the Falcons can put a 6 to 10 pt win up and cover the 3.5 pts spread, again at even money.
The final leg will be placed in the capable hands of Tom Brady. The Patriots put a pasting by the Chiefs right behind them with a good show on offence, both passing and running, against Cincinnati on Sunday night. The Brady/Gronk machine was operating somewhere near full power and even 80% of that performance should see them go into Buffalo and emerge with more than the 3pt handicap as a winning margin. Again, the odds are evens.
San Francisco -3.5 (Evs)
Atlanta -3.5 (Evs)
New England -3 (Evs)
As said earlier I feel Tampa Bay were flattered last time and I want to take them on with the Baltimore Ravens who had a tough time running the ball last week against the Colts. I believe the Ravens to be a better team by a fair way than the Bucs, who are hovering near 30th in offence and defence rankings so far. The Ravens have won the last three meeting between the teams and at -3.5 and even money they are an alterative to put as a treble with two of the above three teams.
I’m greedy by nature so I’ll stick a cheeky fourfold on as well.
Baltimore -3.5 (Evs)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thumping wins for New England and Baltimore and the spreads covered with ease. Sadly Atlanta didn’t recover at home and could not run the football at all. The defence just didn’t show up and with three losses on the trot they look a team with problems.
I have never been a big fan of their coach, he’s ultra conservative and never quite convinced me. This could be his last season if he doesn’t turn it around soon.
The Cowboys continue to be the surprise packet of the season for me and if they can avoid the tendency to slump later in the year they have to be contenders after beating the Seahawks, holding them to very little offensive output.
I reckon Dallas at 16/1 are way better than San Diego at 10/1 in terms of value as a Superbowl contender.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thumping wins for New England and Baltimore and the spreads covered with ease. Sadly Atlanta didn’t recover at home and could not run the football at all. The defence just didn’t show up and with three losses on the trot they look a team with problems.
I have never been a big fan of their coach, he’s ultra conservative and never quite convinced me. This could be his last season if he doesn’t turn it around soon.
The Cowboys continue to be the surprise packet of the season for me and if they can avoid the tendency to slump later in the year they have to be contenders after beating the Seahawks, holding them to very little offensive output.
I reckon Dallas at 16/1 are way better than San Diego at 10/1 in terms of value as a Superbowl contender.
Despite a slow start and posting the Rams a 14 start in the first quarter the 49ers got it rolling and covered the spread with enough to spare in the Monday Night fixture.
That means 3 from 4 correct this week and the Falcons were the spoiler for a nice 15/1 fourfold.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I was too busy to get organised for the kick off of the early games last week and only had two games I fancied from the late games, which were Dallas and Denver. Never had a bet and they both won in typical style.
On the ball earlier this week and there seem a few contenders for a bet this week.
Apart from beating an Atlanta team in free fall, Chicago have generally struggled this season and it’s not great having to go into New England to face the Patriots this week. The Pats made heavy weather of beating the Jets but Tom Brady can have a good day against Chicago and cover the 6pt spread I believe.
After a slow start Green Bay have found their form and although still struggling to run the football they are getting the job done. Going to New Orleans this week they get 2pts from the Saints on the handicap. New Orleans are 2-4 this season and squandered a 13pt lead in losing to Detroit last week. I can’t have them favs for this and will accept the 2pt start gladly.
Cincinnati were woeful last week, totally shut out against the Colts in a 27-0 loss. Their best receiver AJ Green will be out with injury again this week according to reports. That leaves them vulnerable against a Baltimore team going well and the spread sees Baltimore get a 1pt start on the handicap. I’ll have some of that.
Pittsburgh got a win last week but it wasn’t that convincing against a mediocre looking Houston team. Indianapolis come to town this week playing about as well as any team in the NFL right now and I think they can beat a waning Steelers team and concede the 3pts.
Seattle were surprisingly beaten by the Rams last week but there were some outrageous fake plays on the part of the St Louis team that came off big style. The Seahawks will be alive to anything like that from now on and they can get the show back on the road against a slightly disappointing Carolina team who seem to be struggling on defence considering how good they were in that phase a year ago. Green Bay put them away and I think the Seattle team will be keen to erase a disappointment that saw them drift to 10/1 for a Superbowl repeat.
Denver were machine like against the 49ers last week and many will believe they can destroy the Chargers this week. Worthy Superbowl favourites that they are, I will leave Denver out of the mix this week conceding 7.5pts.
This week’s bets:-
Indianapolis -3
New England -6
Green Bay +2
Seattle -5
Baltimore +1Not decided on the actual bet yet but the Caution greed factor means there will be a fivefold in the mix!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A mixed bag last week. New England did the business, Seattle won but didn’t put up enough points and Baltimore should have won but Joe Flacco threw two interceptions and they lost the game late on.
Indianapolis had a disastrous turn around from shutting out Cincinnati to conceding 51 points against a patchy Pittsburgh team.
Green Bay were on the verge of taking control of an even game with New Orleans and disaster struck as Aaron Rodgers pulled his hamstring. It clearly upset him and he lost his mobility. Instead of going seven points ahead from just outside the end zone, he threw an interception, followed by another one and the whole show collapsed.
New Orleans looked much better with tight end Jimmy Graham back in action and Green Bay will be ruing a poor defensive effort, particularly against the run.
Elsewhere Dallas somehow managed to lose against old enemies The Redskins. Quite how that was possible after another excellent effort from Running Back Demarco Murray is a mystery. Colt McCoy had a big day for Washington, completing 25 of 30 pass attempts and the Dallas defensive coordinator will have had some explaining to do in the coaching sessions this week.
Detroit came back for the second week in a row, this time turning around a 21 point deficit at half time against the Falcons. They can’t keep getting away with that so perhaps 6-2 flatters them as a record this year. The Falcons owner was furious and the coach may be on his way out of Atlanta sooner, rather than later.
Denver are a relentless scoring machine at the moment and are worthy favourites. Seattle are probably too short at 7/1 and Dallas will outperform their current quote of 18/1 with the best running game in football at their disposal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After a rush of blood to the head last week a return to a more measured approach is in order with only three picks.
New Orleans got back into gear last week and although they had help through the injury to the Green Bay quarterback they should have too many guns for a Carolina team struggling to find top gear.
New Orleans should be capable of a 2.5pt concession, even if they are better at home.
Baltimore threw it away against Cincinnati and if Joe Flacco keeps error free I believe they can beat a hit and miss Pittsburgh team in arguably the NFL’s most bitter rivalry. Conceding just 1pt should be well within their capability.
Finally I am backing a so-so Cleveland team at home to one of the league’s poorest in Tampa Bay.
I expect the Browns to triump by 7-10 pts unless they have a nightmare and can cover the 6.5pt spread.
Week 9 Treble picks
Cleveland -6.5
Baltimore -1
New Orleans -2.5
Additional pick for a four timer is Denver -3 vs New England.
The Broncos are scoring points for fun and can out gun a New England outfit who are capable but more hit and miss.
Denver -3
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A mixed bag with New Orleans winning, Cleveland making too many mistakes to quite cover and then two total blow out defeats.
New England showed the best way to beat Denver, just forget about running the football and just go toe to toe and out-pass them.
If there is a flaw in Peyton Manning as a quarterback it has been when he’s playing catch up football. Playing with a lead he flows like a symphony orchestra and rarely makes errors. Chasing a game he seems to tense up, as we saw when they fell in a hole behind Seattle in the last Superbowl and the mistakes came one after the other. New England put him in that position last Sunday and he melted.
The Pittburgh game against Baltimore was dominated by the Ravens early and Pittsburgh were in reverse. Baltimore only put 7pts on the board though and once Pittsburgh got into gear and nosed ahead Joe Flacco started jumping around like a jack rabbit behind his offensive line and his achilles heel of interceptions and sacks flowed as the Steelers defense started to get through into the backfield.
There were a few home town calls at key stages where the referees bizarrely gave the Steelers a first down when clearly short and failed to call clear penalties on the Pittburgh team. Aside from that the story was of a stuttering Baltimore offence and a defence that wore down in the face of a remarkable two games in a row six touchdown passes thrown by Ben Rothlisberger. That has never happened before in NFL history and the Baltimore secondary coach will have a load of questions to answer in the classroom this week.
Elsewhere Dallas lost quarterback Tony Romo for a week or more and that clearly affected them badly. They may leave him out of this weeks’s game at Wembley vs the Jaguars.
As I said earlier on in the thread, San Diego were a silly price at 10/1 to win the Superbowl. They are now out to 50/1 after losing 37-0 to Miami last Sunday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The season has been as unpredictable as ever but hopefully will now enter a phase where teams are beginning to settle in as playoff contenders or accept that they are on a salvage mission this year and looking towards building for next year.
Cleveland are somewhere middle of the road at the moment and continue to make mistakes. Travelling to divisional rivals Cincinnati this week they face a key game in terms of making a claim towards winning the division.
I feel the Bengals are the more talented team at the moment though and they will be keen to keep pace with the Steelers, who spanked Baltimore last week. I reckon the home team will prevail and cover the 6pt handicap on the spread betting.
Another team that stands out as an improving one up against a disappointing one is New Orleans. Since tight end Jimmy Graham got back into the line up their offence has been much more productive and I readily prefer them to a San Francisco team that have struggled to ignite on offence all season. They suffered a farcical defeat last week after fumbling when they had a chance to take the game to overtime at least. The 49ers have been an unhappy franchise with the players believing that the head coach is treating them like kids by not allowing them to play cards or listen to music when they are travelling to games. From an early season trading that saw them near the top of the betting, they have drifted to 28/1 and I believe the Saints can score enough points to cause the 49ers further trouble and cover the 5.5pt handicap.
Pittsburgh have been on fire the past two weeks and normally they would be a candidate for the let down that follows two exceptional games. The thing that works for them this week is that they face a Jets team who have been pretty much feckless this season. A team already out of the mix can be dangerous but this week is a chance for Pittsburgh to gain ground, because divisional rivals Cincinnati and Cleveland face each other and so one of them has to fall a game back (or a half game each in the rare event of a tie). All things being equal Pittsburgh should be able to beat the New York Jets by 5 or more points and cover the 4.5 pt spread.
This weeks outsider to back is The Miami Dolphins in my opinion. They travel to Detroit, who are going well but who have had two comebacks in games they should really have lost, particularly when trailing 21-0 to Atlanta before the Falcons collapsed like Fred Dibnah’s last chimney stack job. The Dolphins thrashed San Diego 37-0 last Sunday and can win this game straight up, if in similar form. They get a three point start but I would back them without the points and get the better price.
Treble:-
Cincinnati -6pts
New Orleans -5.5pts
Pittsburgh -4.5pts
Other bet:-
Miami straight up to beat Detroit
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Go figure those Cleveland Browns. One week you back them and they underachieve, the next week they face a better team and blow them away.
Andy Dalton had a shocker for The Bengals, throwing three interceptions and recording a passer rating of 2.0, the lowest by any quarterback since 1983. Inept doesn’t even begin to cover it in terms of describing his efforts.
In a worrying stat for the team, Andy Dalton has developed a record of 2 wins and 9 losses when the game he is playing in is broadcast network wide. His mother must have come to realise that he is suffering from reverse A-Ha syndrome, from the fact that her "Son doesn’t always shine on TV"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
After slow stats my Pittsburgh and New Oreleans look ok now.Will both get playoffs steve how will they do too.
After slow stats my Pittsburgh and New Oreleans look ok now.Will both get playoffs steve how will they do too.
It’s been a crazy year to predict week in week out Darren. After some near misses I was way off the mark the past few weeks with just picking the wrong week with teams who went on to do much better the following week and TV pundit Al Michaels summed it up with the statement "Nobody knows anything in this league anymore", during Sunday Night’s comment to co-commentator Cris Collinsworth.
Ben Roethlisberger was due a drop after two record breaking back to back six touchdown games but it looked well within their compass that they could concede the 4pts to the Jets on the spread and Mike Carlson echoed the surprise that the handicap was as low as it was, and explained that several people thought it was a good bet. I was in that camp of opinion but watched as the Steelers just couldn’t run the football at all and a quarterback just can’t keep throwing half a dozen touchdowns a week and Ben chucked two interceptions in their loss to the New York team who are struggling this year.
Miami also narrowly let me down last week and, as usual, they covered the spread easily in last night’s game against Buffalo when I wasn’t on board.
The Ravens were another let down for me who bounced back easily the next week and it’s a frustrating trend.
I had the Saints last week and am still puzzling how they lost their game against San Francisco after putting up a good bit more offensive yards than the 49ers. Drew Brees completed twice as many passes as Colin Kaepernick and there was enough output from running back Mark Ingram to have made this a game the Saints should have won. Like Big Ben though, the Saints quarterback threw two interceptions and most days that stat will bite you on the ass come the two minute warning.
My outside bet Carolina continue to under perform after an encouraging start and they suffered a blow out against the Eagles despite holding the ball for almost twice the time as Philadelphia. The defence has been a bit disappointing but Cam Newton has been the biggest let down for me at the Quarterback position. Fair enough, their receivers are rookies and learning the game still, but three interceptions from Cam last week saw them buried by the Birds.
The most encouraging thing for me this season has been the Packers finding their offensive feet and Aaron Rogers looked a lot happier picking the Bears apart than he did when his hamstring went against the Saints. You could see the confidence and mental attitude drain right out of him when he pulled up feeling his leg after a run against New Orleans but he was imperious against an, albeit low ranked, Chicago defence last week. 16/1 in week 2 looks OK for Green Bay where they stand now at about 7/1 for the Superbowl, although I feel the defence still need to step up to be Championship material.
Pittsburgh’s division looks competitive and there may be one or two wildcard teams emerging. It’s a tough call and I would rate the Saints the better option of the two to progress.
For me the current odds see Dallas as the best value left at 25/1, although their roster lacks depth and injuries could derail them. Seattle at 6/1 is the worst value by far in my opinion. I don’t think they are as hot this year and they lack offensive fire power to play catch up if they fall behind teams such as New England and Green Bay for example.
Best of luck with your picks Darren, I hope they make the playoffs at least for you.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This mug is back for another go this week but it’s never been a serious betting event week to week for me.
All teams are going to have off weeks during the season and I always pick one to win the whole thing as my serious bet at the start of the season and have a few quid on a saver if the price is right.
This week would have seen the Saints included but the 7pt spread is two score territory and I don’t go there unless a certain pasting is on the cards for the underdog.
Instead well keep it manageable with Green Bay and a 4.5 concession to Philadelphia. The Eagles were helped by a disastrous three interception game from Cam Newton as they stomped on the Panthers last week. This is a very different offence they face and Green Bay can be a tough field to go to when the weather starts getting cold. It shapes like a high scoring fixture and Rogers was on fire against the Bears last week. This will be tougher but you have to think confidence is high on the Packers team.
San Francisco were a bit fortunate to beat the Saints last week but they shape as a better team than the New York Giants. The offence isn’t really firing for San Francisco but I see them perhaps winning by a couple of field goal margin. So -4pts makes them the pick.
Pittsburgh suffered a shock loss to the Jets last week but after two 6 touchdown games from their QB they were due a drop to more average output. They face one of the poorer teams in the form of the Tennessee Titans this week and should win by 7 to 10 points all things being equal. The spread is -6pts and I’ll be with them on that figure.
The final pick sees Kansas host Seattle and on last year’s form you would have snapped the bookies hands off with Seattle getting a 1pt start. They haven’t looked the same this year though and are not a great road team either.
Kansas is a noisy venue and, although they are a bit off top grade pace, the home field and a Seattle offence not really firing should see the Chiefs sneak the win from the defending champions and cover the 1pt handicap.
This weeks bet:-
Green Bay -4.5
San Francisco -4
Pittsburgh -6
Kansas -1
Fourfold
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well three out of four and the Steelers almost covered the spread. You actually did well considering there were more unpredictable results. Andy Dalton was in Mr Hyde mode after his horrendous performance last week, and who could have forecast the Rams restricting Peyton and the Broncos to seven points.
Six weeks to the playoffs and the picture is still clear as mud. Can the Cards really become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their own stadium and should the NFC South still have a playoff spot as none of the teams in it appear to want to qualify.
Frustration yet again with Pittsburgh. The first three legs of the fourfold landed and then the Steelers go into freeze mode for the second and third quarters, putting no points on the board.
They rallied enough to win the game but didn’t cover the spread and the game stats for running and time of possession would have won 90 odd percent of games with 33 carries and over 200 yards rushing from their running back and a time of possession figure roughly 40 minutes to 20 minutes in Pittsburgh’s favour.
Pittsburgh registered 29 first downs to Tennessee’s 14 and they conceded an 80 yard touchdown pass on a busted coverage that left the wide receiver for Tennessee some ten yards in front of the nearest Pittsburgh defensive back.
On the stats Pittburgh should have won by between 14 and 17 points but it just didn’t happen and I feel robbed by another weak effort from Big Ben at Quarterback against a team in the bottom six teams in the NFL by my reckoning.
New Orleans had another poor week and need to be seriously looking at why it is that their Quarterback can complete 33 of 41 attempts and yet generate so little points from those numbers?
Dink and dunk, short range-high completion rate passing offence is fine when you are coasting in front in a game but is absolutely useless when you are trailing in a game.
Luckily for New Orleans, no other team in the division is doing well either, so it’s still up for grabs.
The best news for me is the continued form of Green Bay and the 16/1 looks good now, with 4/1 their general odds.
This week may be a good time to cash the chips in, as it could be the best time to trade back out with Green Bay facing Minnesota this week. A win for Green Bay would see their odds shaved in slightly further and it might be the ideal time to lay off before New England come to town the following week. The Patriots are on a roll as well and are vying for favouritism for the Superbowl. Were they to win in Green Bay I am sure the Packers would drift back out again and the chance to lay at a lower price will be gone. On the other side of that is the fact that a Packers win over the Pats would see them a clear favourite for Superbowl glory but sometimes in this game you miss the best chance to lay your bet off for a guaranteed profit. 16/1 laid off at 4/1 might be the option.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
This week sees some really big spreads and I’ll keep well away from those games.
The first pick is in the Houston/Cincinnati game. The Bengals are blowing hot and cold and when they are bad they are awful. I think Houston are steady enough to cause problems for Andy Dalton at QB for the Cincinnati team and believe they can prevail by 3pts and cover the 1.5pt handicap at home.
The Bears have been pretty disappointing this season and their defence is not playing well. However, this week they face a Tampa Bay team flattered by beating the Redskins by as much as they did. Tampa put up a meagre offensive tally and it was due to incredible ineptness from the worst run franchise in football that they managed to even win the game, let alone by the margin they did. Chicago can win by 7-10pts and cover the 6.5 pt spread.
The Rams were the surprise package last week in beating Denver but they face the inevitable chance of a let down the next week. They go into San Diego to face a team desperate to get back on the playoff road and the Chargers need this win to cement their position. I feel the San Diego team will be fired up and can win by a couple of field goal margin to cover the 5pt concession to St Louis.
The last pick sees us turn to Sunday Night Football which has suffered from blow out matches this season. It seems a case of just picking the right team and watch them pile the points up. This week I am backing the Dallas Cowboys to be the team that puts it to the Giants in New York. With Tony Romo looking good this season and Eli Manning putting in some awful games it is hard to imagine the Giants upsetting the party as long as the Cowboys avoid key injuries. I’ll take any Dallas win of more than the 3pt spread and don’t need a blowout.
This weeks bet:-
Houston -1.5
Chicago -6.5
San Diego -5
Dallas -3
Fourfold
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A mixed bag last week with two teams winning but coming agonisingly short on the spread.
Dallas were -3 and won by 3 for a dead heat on the spread. They posted the Giants an 11pts start, as the defence allowed the Giants to score three times on their first three drives of the game. The Cowboys ended the game with the ball and were in field goal range but didn’t need to score and closed the game out with Tony Romo taking a knee from the snap to run out the clock, typifying the danger of handicap betting when there is no obligation to score more points.
The Giants had encouragement from their receiver Odell Beckham, who recorded a remarkable athletic catch whilst falling backward and snaring the ball with one hand between thumb and finger. It was reception that defied the laws of physics and human capability, which will be on every NFL all-time highlights DVD made from now to eternity.
It’s here to enjoy if you missed it:-
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/video/ … ants-video
San Diego managed to win but only by three points and didn’t cover the spread. The key play was when San Diego were in a goal-to-go situation, about to score points themselves, and Philip Rivers threw an interception, which was run back 99yds for a St Louis touchdown, an effective minimum 10pt swing in the game. The team also lost two fumbles and should have won by more based on their superior numbers. They ended up being lucky to win a game they should have been comfortable in due to the quarterbacks 29 of 36 passes completed.
Chicago overcame a sticky start to cover the spread against a weak Tampa Bay team but they have to do better than this to be competitive in stronger company.
Houston were the big let-down against a Bengals team who blow hot and cold. Quarterback Ryan Mallett had a bad day at the office for the Texans, completing only 21 of 45 attempts in a game where they couldn’t run the football at all. He was inaccurate all day, missing receivers by miles and the team only held the ball for 20 minutes out of the 60. You don’t win games doing that and they should be looking to see if Timmy Mallett is available, with or without the annoying cockatiel sidekick.
This week sees the traditional Thanksgiving Day games with Detroit and Dallas always hosting and an added third game which is a fascinating match-up between early NFC favourites San Francisco and Seattle. Both teams here have been less impressive than foreseen back in September and they need to win to keep up hopes of home field advantage for the playoffs.
Looking at this week’s spreads I favour Seattle getting a 1pt start against a 49ers side that have struggled to score many points this season. They made heavy weather of beating a Redskins team who have been woeful and who are said to be benching Robert Griffin this week. The Seahawks haven’t been on fire offensively either but it seems that this should be a low scoring game and I fancy them to score enough points to let their defence keep the 49ers at bay.
With Baltimore winning last week, Cincinnati will be looking to keep ahead of them in a tight divisional race. The Bengals go into Tampa Bay, who I think are a weak team and Andy Dalton should be able to get sufficient offensive production to win this game by 7 or more. On -4pts they look sound on the spread.
Green Bay have been going well, particularly at home, but the Patriots come to town this week and part of Green Bay’s vulnerability is what the Patriots are particularly strong at doing and that is passing the football. The Patriots are arguably the NFL’s most potent team right now and they get 3pts start in a game that I find hard to call one way or the other. I’ll be chuffed if Green Bay can knock them off here and go clear favourites for the Superbowl but it is a tough game that should be high scoring, and a one or two point margin sometimes crops up in that type of game, so +3 has to be the call.
For the final game I am siding with Baltimore at home to San Diego. Both teams badly need the win but Baltimore should be hungrier, with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati fighting with them for the division, while San Diego may find this a lot tougher than their last game where they nearly lost late on. I take Baltimore by 6-10pts here and enough to beat the 5.5 handicap.
This weeks bet:-
Seattle +1
Cincinnati -4
New England +3
Baltimore -5.5
Fourfold
Other important games this week are Dallas v Philadelphia and Kansas v Denver but they are tough ones to call.
Darren’s teams Pittsburgh and New Orleans clash this week and it’s hard to figure out how the Saints have lost their last three given the numbers Drew Brees is putting up. The Quarterback passed for 420 yards and 3 TDs last week but in a losing cause, not helped by allowing the Ravens to run for so many yards. It’s a trend they really need to snap this week, even in a division where everyone else fails to take advantage most weeks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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