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Sportscolour do the sectionals for all Melbourne and Sydney racing.
They certainly went too quick but if they were any slower, it would become too close to a sit ‘n’ sprint affair, of which all three horses IMO seemed incapable of doing.
Sportscolour’s website maintains they haven’t provided the sectionals for Melbourne since August this year?
Also, if they went ‘too quick’, how were the principals (and Septimus) able to increase their speed in the latter 1/3rd of the race?Sportscolour do the sectionals for all Melbourne and Sydney racing.
They certainly went too quick but if they were any slower, it would become too close to a sit ‘n’ sprint affair, of which all three horses IMO seemed incapable of doing.
Sportscolour’s website maintains they haven’t provided the sectionals for Melbourne since August this year?
Also, if they went ‘too quick’, how were the principals (and Septimus) able to increase their speed in the latter 1/3rd of the race?[/color:19w3w5d4]The increase in speed if that is even applicable was not enough to get them within stones throw at the finish.
Myles is spot-on they went too fast early or they failed to stay, and the latter is not in question.- Total Posts 17716
Myles is spot-on they went too fast early or they failed to stay, and the latter is not in question.
So the fact that Septimus increased his speed, (though others obviously increased theirs more), indicates that he went too fast early?
I’d say it shows he merely hadn’t sufficient turn of foot to cope, and far from burning the others off, the pace set allowed a number of others (many unproven at the distance) to accelerate in the closing stages also.AOB said Septimus has a better turn of foot than Yeats and was a more suitable prospect. There is no doubt that Yeats performance was superior to Septimus, Honolulu and AV.
No person here in Oz that I have spoken to has suggested that AOB deliberately did anything wrong. It was just a naive attempt to dictate the tempo with the aim of winning the race.
AOB is clearly a gifted trainer but at near 40years it is a given that his experience in the future will no doubt improve his ability. No disrespect, we all accumulate knowledge until the day we die.
Viewed was suited by the fast early pace, as were all the true stayers. If Septimus had been racing in the UK he would have been back with Viewed and Co with AV up to ten plus length’s in front setting the pace.
Why he was sitting just behind AV with Honolulu is the mystery.- Total Posts 17716
Viewed was suited by the fast early pace, as were all the true stayers. If Septimus had been racing in the UK he would have been back with Viewed and Co with AV up to ten plus length’s in front setting the pace.
SC
What ‘fast early pace’:(that isn’t what the sectionals show), and why wouldn’t you consider Septimus and Honolulu as ‘true stayers’?I agree with Reet on that last post – careful Snoop, both Honolulu and Septimus was the truest of stayers by a proverbial mile.
And that was the problem. It probably baffles APO’B when he brings Septimus as (in his opinion) a more quicker type to Yeats.
The firm deck didn’t help either. Septimus probably thrived but the Aussies quickened much easier on the faster track.
We could argue ’till we’re blue in the face over this – O’Brien’s stayers are just too dour. But then again, how did Mahler finish third? Such is life, such is racing.
Firm ground beat Septimus. Absolutely nothing more. Not even the winner.
All this talk of going out too fast nonsense. He never had a snowballs chance on that suface to begin with and should never have run.The stewards were an absolute disgrace to boot. They should have just been glad AOB provided the only true G1 horse in the field. Talk about sticking the boot in.
Firm ground beat Septimus. Absolutely nothing more. Not even the winner.
All this talk of going out too fast nonsense. He never had a snowballs chance on that suface to begin with and should never have run.The stewards were an absolute disgrace to boot. They should have just been glad AOB provided the only true G1 horse in the field. Talk about sticking the boot in.
Are you saying the hard ground only had an impact in the home straight when the challenges came because they all appeared to be going along nicely prior to that.
I had Septimus to win, that is my confidence that he was the best horse and capable of winning even with the big weight. I know he can stay all day, he simply had nothing left to offer at the 2 furlong marker because all his gas had been used.
Boundless travelling 4th throughout suffered in the same fate as those in front of her. Infact all those close to the pace tired.
This tells me the pace had been too fast.Septimus is way better than that.
The track was rated dead, this is not hard, it is soft enough to take the sprint out of the horses suited to a FAST TRACK.I had Septimus to win, that is my confidence that he was the best horse and capable of winning even with the big weight. I know he can stay all day, he simply had nothing left to offer at the 2 furlong marker because all his gas had been used.
Boundless travelling 4th throughout suffered in the same fate as those in front of her. Infact all those close to the pace tired.
This tells me the pace had been too fast.Septimus is way better than that.
The track was rated dead, this is not hard, it is soft enough to take the sprint out of the horses suited to a FAST TRACK.That would be why Septimus came back sore then
It’s a wonder the horse made it to the straight on that ground.AV was not affected by the track, yet he tired to finish last. Septimus and Honolulu racing metre’s behind him most of the trip Jarred-up.
It may have been the track that caused the poor performance of Septimus and Honolulu but AV failed to stay?
Others say Septimus and Honolulu too dour.
Persian Punch was just as dour and he ran 3rd.
Nothing wrong with the choice of thoroughbred this year, just the tactics by the AOB camp IMHO.I spent most of yesterday working with another pseudo scientist, a bloke who took an hour to brief me on what takes most people I work with 5 minutes to do, a brief for a routine task we perform everyday in my line of work. So when I got in last night and read your 2 posts robert99 my wick was fairly short to say the least. I respect your right to an opinion although you state it as fact, but thats all it is, an opinion, an opinion I disagree with.
AOB’s team biggest weakness IS a nil understanding of pace
Given his record thats laughable, he gets it wrong, he usually gets it right.The trio needed to get furthur ahead by 3-4 seconds
How on earth could they be 20 lengths further up the track given the early speed (almost 39 mph) and what jockey in his right mind would gift a fancied Ballydoyle runner a 20 length lead in a Group 1 race even if the
horses were physically capable?[b:1s6wvzi5]Viewed….into a sheltered position but also handy position that is needed on fast ground[/b:1s6wvzi5]
Viewed was 13 lengths behind the leader in the back straight…Thats handy? Septimus was ¨handy¨. Have you seen the record of hold up horses at Bath on firm ground?[b:1s6wvzi5]Septimus exposed into the windburn[/b:1s6wvzi5]
Thank you Myles and Snoop for the correct meaning of the term. Hope youve taken note robert99. Septimus led for about half a furlong before he was passed, hardly in the lead too long.Home based jockeys can never progress into all round international jockeys
Frankie Dettori learnt his trade long before the advent of sectionals, Mick Kinnane learnt his craft in a country that has never had sectional timing. Have you seen their international victory records? Thats just 2. Are you seriously telling me Ryan Moore is f**ked because Turftrax has gone bust?Comparison of Flemmington and Chester
More wild innacuracy. Over 9f of the 16f at Flemington is run on straight sections, its half that at Chester over the same distance and hold up horses have done just as well at Chester as front runners at all trips in excess of 14f since 2000. [Hold up horses fare worst at Chester winning some 20% – the best place is mid-pack to front]Oz jockeys certainly can get the best out of the horse but they cannot compensate if the horse is the wrong horse for the race.
Is that not the same for all jockeys regardless of nationality?Oz jockeys reporting concrete ground at UK tracks this summer
Who, when, where?The Melbourne Cup of 2002 was the second fastest in the races 142 year history. In that race they did the first 5 furlongs in 61.68 seconds. In this years renewal they did the first 5 furlongs in 60.04 seconds, over a 1.5 seconds faster than the second fastest time ever yet this years final time was 3.43 seconds slower than the 2002 race. The first mile of this years rrace was 5 seconds faster than last years. Put simply they went too fast early and ran out of gas. Daliapour and Sandmason who set the fast pace in the 2002 renewal suffered a similar fate beaten 16 and 41 lengths repectively.
One thing you could enlighten me on…where did you get the sectionals?
It culchie not colchie by the way, still Im sure you knew that
I seldom get into these negative discussions but as you have had the grace to provide some basis for discussion I will reply.
My original post was to provide information that backed up Reet’s opinion on this year’s race.
The words are in black and white above but you have chosen to misinterpret them to respond to suit your own agenda. Please note my reply was about international competition – not that within the British Isles. AOB team performance internationally in 2008 is a miserable Won one (Yeats) Lost 12.Mine is not a criticism of AOB’s excellent preparation and eye for detail nor any of his jockeys will to win or horsemanship – just the continual mess they too often get themselves into with pace and tactics. It is not dissimilar to the England soccer team with top players in the frenetic kick and rush of Premiership football looking exposed, clueless and skilless once in international competition. AOB takes 3 horses 7000 miles for a major race and the night before fully expects them to finish 1-2-3 – his reported words. They finish 18,21,24 out of 24.
When Mick Kinane rode for AOB the pace and tactics issues were hidden as MK was an acknowledged master of both. Lester Piggot, Kieran Fallon too had this gift naturally. Few others do, and it needs to be learnt. I suggested sectional timing data was an essential item for that as they are not going to learn it from riding blind in UK/Ireland. Otherwise they could go to USA or Oz and start over.
AOB team sacked MK and employed Jamie Spencer.
AOB team then sacked JS. JS then went to New York Jockey School to relearn his trade from the bottom up. In 2007 JS joint champion jockey.Franki Dettori was getting nowhere until sent by Cumani to California to ride for 4 winters and be tutored in style, pace and tactics by Angel Cordero. He also then never looked back.
Have a look at the sectionals and Septimus was in the front 3 for 11 furlongs.
I said “The trio needed to get far further ahead (by 3-4 seconds, not 1 second) at the turn to have any chance of not getting caught and passed by closing fast ground horses at their peak”. That is factual if Septimus was to win – that he could not do it and did not do it is also a fact. Of course you can also ride slower in front to achieve the same effect by breakaway if you have sent the right horses for that.
I said “Bauer (best recent RP rated 103 and TS 97) did this at 13f Chester GF- where the continually turning track with horses attacking throughout needs a horse that is also suitable for Flemington MC pace and large fields. All Bauer’s wins have come on going Good or faster. He has won in fields of 15 and 17. (RPR MCup 114)”. You replied that I compared Chester to Flemington – I did nothing of the kind.
Viewed was “handy” in 8-9th place that his jockey maintained for several furlongs. He was placed to pounce and he pounced and won. [Bath is often firm and the record of hold up horses is poor. Front runners win 45-55%.]
Oz jockeys will get the best out of any horse in the MC. They have the skills and knowledge to suit their conditions.
Your point about pace is the right one. If AOB team understand pace and tactics why did they issue such instructions to their trio when all the past evidence told them that such tactics would not work. QED
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