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Carv
I’d be surprised if Mad Rush didn’t turn round the form over the extra half-mile. He was always going to struggle for speed at 12f, and it’s fairly certain that Coolmore will ensure a proper pace in the MC.
Good horse though he is, ATG weakened in the Ebor last year over 2f less, and his penalty also puts him within 6/7 lbs of Septimus, which leaves him 2 mountains to climb, imo.With all due respect Reet, I think that’s complete pants. ATG won over 10f at 2, was beaten a length over 2m in the 6th race of his life at 3 and won at 14f at 3 twice. He wasn’t in form going into last year’s Ebor and it’s a stretch to say stamina had anything to do with that poor run. I reckon you need a horse that’s best at 12-14f here for the Melbourne Cup and if stamina beats him I’ll subscribe to the Fist of Fury phone line for the jumps. The penalty doesn’t help, but I still think he’s better than a 10/1 shot for the race that stops a nation…
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Fair enough Carv, but there’s a world of difference between staying half-paced tin-pot races around Musselburgh and staying in a truly run Ebor.
Couldn’t have him out of form either; according to his RPR’s he ran to his best only 11 days previously, and again only 4 days after.
Tell you what, if he finishes in front of Mad Rush or Septimus, I’ll pay your subscription to Fist’s phone-line.I don’t think All The Good will stay the distance in what is likely to be a very quickly run race.
It’s not coincidental that Aidan chose three Montjeus! Well, IMO anyway.
So I like Nom Du Jeu big time!
I don’t think All The Good will stay the distance in what is likely to be a very quickly run race.
It’s not coincidental that Aidan chose three Montjeus! Well, IMO anyway.
So I like Nom Du Jeu big time!
ATG has more Stamina in his pedigree than Septimus.
He had previously had 7 attemps at 12 furlongs for 1 win no places, and has only one career win at less than 12f.
3 wins at 14f suggests he was more of a risk in the CC.
Mc no problem, the CC run will top him off nicely.Mad Rush was all over ATG after the post, but if Kerrin holds ATG until the clock tower in the MC he will sprint clear IMO.
CUP PENALTY ISSUED TO ALL THE GOOD
Racing Victoria’s Chief Handicapper Greg Carpenter today issued a 2kg penalty to All The Good for the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) following his win in the Group 1 BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m) on Saturday.The penalty takes the Godolphin galloper’s Cup weight to 55kg as he strives to become the first internationally trained horse to complete the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double in the same year, a feat achieved by 11 Australasian horses in the rich history of the two Cups.
In issuing the penalty Carpenter said “All The Good has emerged as a stayer of the highest quality in his last two runs winning the Newburgh Handicap in England and now the Group 1 Caulfield Cup. Although there was only 2.5 lengths between the first seven runners home on Saturday and a number of his rivals produced outstanding Melbourne Cup trials, All The Good was impressive in victory and should be further suited over the longer distance at Flemington.
“In determining the penalty I was also mindful that the Melbourne Cup represents a new challenge with the two best stayers in the world, Septimus and Efficient, set to run along with a number of other quality entrants who did not contest the Caulfield Cup.
Baughurst, which convincingly won the Group 3 David Jones Cup (2000m) at Caulfield on Saturday has been issued with a 0.5kg penalty, taking his Melbourne Cup weight to 51kg and lifting the Bill Wilde-trained seven-year-old from 42 to 36 in the latest elimination order.
Carpenter said ”Baughurst has won twice since weights were released as well as being placed in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) and The Bart Cummings (2500m). He was a dominant winner last Saturday in recording his first victory at Group level.”
Third declarations close at 12 noon Monday October 27.
The following link has the latest elemination order for the MC.
http://www1.racingvictoria.net.au/image … %20Oct.pdfC/O racingvictoria.net.au
Melbourne Cup penalties to Caulfield Cup Winners since 1991 has produced four Winners.
2001 Ethereal 4m, 2kg penalty carried 52kg in MC
1997 Might and Power 4g, 3.5 kg penalty carried 56kg in MC
1995 Doriemus 5g, 3kg penalty carried 54.5 in MC
1991 Let’s Elope 4m, 2.5kg penalty carried 51kgMelbourne Cup Winners History 1-2-3
http://melbournecup.racingandsports.com … up-winners
While International wins in the MC stands at 3 the above link reflects the impact they have with 13 places since Vintage crop won in 1993.
13/45 possible places = 29% this is vg considering the amount of runners v’s the locals.Last two years has produced 4/6 places at 67%.
[b:3oz7bjyl]Will this year produce the first three placings and create history?[/[/b:3oz7bjyl]size]
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Thanks for those, SC.
“In determining the penalty I was also mindful that the Melbourne Cup represents a new challenge with the two best stayers in the world, Septimus and Efficient, set to run along with a number of other quality entrants who did not contest the Caulfield Cup”.
I’d suspect that Efficient is about to find out what ‘staying’ at the top level is all about.
Can’t imagine what price Septimus would be, running over here in a handicap where he’d only have to give around 10lbs to the bottom weight?
Would OTG and MR be around 15-30/1 against Septimus at 3200 over there?
Is that a fair assessment ?
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Would OTG and MR be around 15-30/1 against Septimus at 3200 over there?
Is that a fair assessment ?
Doubt they would be as anything like those prices, but it’s fairly certain that Septimus would be much shorter than either of them, on similar terms to the MC.
The point however is he would be rated far superior than ATG or MR.
There have been other super stayers that have come to our shores but left empty handed.
This adds to the intrigue of racing, the different circumstances that can turn the norm upside down and leave us with the question, How did that happen?
Septimus has been reported in the press over here as past the post!
It’s not the first time, Oscar Schindler was to win the Cup by the length of the straight,
I had Saintly in the Cox Plate doubled into OS and thought the collect was a formality. OS failed and Saintly won the double to add insult to injury.Simon Crisford’s remarks made to the Aussie press reported today are a little puzzling. The gist is that he says All The Good has always been best fresh and that they are worried about him backing up after 17 days. Yet his lifetime record fresh (off 6 weeks or more) prior to the Caulfield Cup was 0/6, whereas he was 6/15 returned to the races within 6 weeks.His time since last run for all his wins reads 36,26,22,15,18 and 13 days (Newburgh)
I can see his point that recovery from what was a hard race off the plane is a concern, but his point is hardly bourne out by the horse’s form which suggests he should improve for the run!- Total Posts 17716
Did I read somewhere that Bauer will run this week?
Any idea where that’ll be?
hth
From RP online;
LUCA CUMANI will attempt to scoop more prize-money in Australia on Wednesday, with Bauer, who will line up in the Geelong Cup on October 22.
The five-year-old is the sole British representative in the Group 3 contest, often used as a springboard to the Melbourne Cup on November 4, and will aim to emulate the effort of stablemate Mad Rush, who finished a good fourth in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday.
All The Good’s victory in that race boosted a form line with Bauer, who finished a seven-length seventh behind the Godolphin horse in the Newburgh Handicap in August.
Cumani said on Monday: “All is well with Bauer and he’s in good form. He’s got a bad draw but we’re hoping he can overcome it. The ground was too soft for him last time at Newbury, but he ran well.”
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