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Barriers are generally worthless. Just an opportunity for all the bigwigs in the race to gather, and the media get a chance to grab comments from all representatives of the 24 runners.
Profound Beauty was $17 earlier this week and now $8 third favourite – my piece certainly praised her as the best chance of the Europeans.
Such a race as the Melbourne Cup might come too soon for a lightly-raced mare who might have been better off contesting the Yorkshire Oaks, Pretty Polly as I believe Weld was planning for at season’s commencement.
Tom Magnier’s press conference this morning alerted about safety first for Septimus – that he might not run due to the firmness of the track.
And so, some judges have dropped off him and Mad Rush is now equal favourite with some corporates. IMO he will start as the favourite.
Littorio was poor yesterday – campaign-wise he might have had enough.
Dermot’s horse is in with a chance.
For the life of me I can’t understand why Profound Beauty is so short- seems the classic "wise guy" horse to me- going too much on the trainer and too little on the form and the inexperience. I’ve laid it at just over 7/1.
Had to back Mad Rush after my All the Good disappointment, if he wins I’ll remain convinced Godolphin would have given it a right go. Have to be against Septimus, can’t see the conditions suiting him.Dermot’s horse is in with a chance.
For the life of me I can’t understand why Profound Beauty is so short- seems the classic "wise guy" horse to me- going too much on the trainer and too little on the form and the inexperience.
I’d have to agree with both of you here, she has definitely got a chance, but like Carvills says her price has nothing to do with her form. The question I’d be asking myself however is- has she been backed into that price though or have the bookies made her that price? Because I wouldnt imagine there would be that many weld fans to support her into being that short.
Actually looking at Profound beauty in the market I would say that there has been little pockets of support for her over time followed by sustained support over the last fve days or so. I expect she is well fancied, it looks more than punter money though.
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The ground is a worry for Septimus, but I doubt they’d run him on it without a very good chance of his winning.
Having spent the past week explaining to the Aussies how each of their charges are running on their merits and not as pacemakers, it seems somewhat ironic that Alessandro Volta goes into the race with the spur of first-time blinkers.
I’d actually give Alessandro Volta a chance at 40-1. We all know he’s temperamental as you like in a finish, but in the Lingfield Derby Trial I thought it looked like he stayed out his victory on a gd-fm surface and a bit further on the same surface might be up his street even in this grade.
Alessando Volta e/w for me, only bet in the race I would care to play.
I’ve had a small ew on Bauer, at least we know he’s in form and doesn’t mind a fast surface.
Would love to see Mad Rush win as i saw him win the Old Newton Cup at Haydock over 1m4f and should have the speed and stamina to go well in this race.
Moatize for Clare Lindop would be a first i think in the history of the Cup with a lady rider winning and trained by legendary trainer Bart Cummings would raise the roof.
I can see Septumus winning as he has more negatives going for him.
Looks a good race and will have to set the tape and watch it in the morning but a great days racing on Tuesday, firstly the Australian Cesarewitch followed by the Haldon Gold Cup, Racing does not get better than this
Hello,
A horse that has done the distance, French, and beat Getaway last year. Will handle rain if it arrives….VAREVEES….
regards,
doyley
If the rain arrives it’s one hand on the cup for Septimus but I cant see it coming at all. Theyre talking about ground like concrete from what I heard?
If Alessandro Volta is indeed fitted with first time blinkers then he has an excellent chance. IMO his drifting and wayward behaviour is the only thing that has stopped him winning a big race to date.
I’m still in two minds about Profound Beauty and wont back her until the very last minute if I do go for her. She’s been behind far too many mediocre AOB runners this year to have an impact for me BUT if she really is sparkling on the gallops in Australia then maybe this is her race to win. We havent ever seen her on firm ground, maybe this is what shes been crying out for?
Littorio is superb at Flemington and I really hope he can put his last run behind him. The slow pace of Saturday’s race really didnt suit him and this should be run at a much faster pace (or at least I’d hope so). With this in mind 37-1 on Betfair is slightly big and I’ve nibble on that for half a point.
A fantastic race in prospect and this is the only race I’ll be betting on all week. Therefore, increased stakes for me so my selections are…
1pt (Antepost) SEPTIMUS – 14/1
0.5pt ALESSANDRO VOLTA (44 BF)
0.5pt LITTORIOWith one more point’s worth to be spent elsewhere before the off, possibly on Profound Beauty.
Good luck to all. A great race coming up and I’ll be staying up through the morning before catching some sleep before work and no doubt living on Red Bull all day!
We went back an hour last weekend and the race is scheduled for 7-30pm to 8-30 to night,Monday,in California. So that should be 3-30 to 4-30 am GMT,Tuesday morning .Allowing an 8 hour differential.
We went back an hour last weekend and the race is scheduled for 7-30pm to 8-30 to night,Monday,in California. So that should be 3-30 to 4-30 am GMT,Tuesday morning .Allowing an 8 hour differential.
4am dead on for us in the GB
Profound Beauty has impressed the clockers and trackwatchers beyond belief – explains the price, not just the Weld factor.
I’ve gone C’est La Guerre with enormous confidence.
think if I was going to have a bet
I’d have an ew on Barbaricus…just going to set the alarm for @ 3,30 so I can listen to it on the radio…
The AOB boys went off far too quick. What the hell were they trying to do?!?!
Profound Beauty and Mad Rush were never in it – Bauer came so close!
It’s an Australian winner is it not? Remarkable
Jim’s commentry was about as up to speed as my live stream
Gutted or Cumani, sounded like a badly timed run. Jim has to go, sadly.
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Coversely, I thought they went too slow – too may horses still runnning on at the end.
How unlucky is Luca Cumani? A fast finishing 2nd again with Bauer, and beaten by the the proverbial cig-paper.
Great race though!
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