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Well looking at the Champion Chase I make Master Minded the one to beat.
Todays race looks rock solid to me, they finished in the order of the betting, MM aside. Mahogany Blaze who has been bang in form was 151 on his last run on the conditions was beaten 21 lengths by voy pur, and take MM out of the race people would be screaming Voy por Ustedes, it looks to me like we have another very special nicholls horse, some of his jumps looked absolutely top drawer today. If mahogany blaze held form today, whic is very likely then MM could be 177 rated going to chelto.
Then you have Twist Magic and Voy Por who both need to improve to beat Master minded but think Twist magic will improve with the ground and voy por ustedes goes well round cheltenham.
Think it looks a really good race between those three, Tamarinbleu without soft or worse ground wont even come into it.
Apologies for my error TC.
Moscow Flyer didn’t see a fence until he was seven and went on to be brilliant. Azertyuiop and Well Chief were only running in Novice Chases as 5 year olds and went on to be great.
So if you can’t see that Master Minded, by beating an existing Queen Mother Champion in a grade 2 event today has already surpassed what any of the above trio have done at the same age, then you need to look again.
Twis Magic has also already surpassed what Moscow Flyer did at the same age, and has equalled the other two.
All I am saying is that if the trio of horses you are referring too went on to be brilliant, then why can’t the two horses I’m referring to do the same based on the fact that they have already produced similar (and better in terms of Moscow Flyer) form at the same age.
Nothing is guaranteed in this game, and Twist Magic and Master Minded might turn out to be nothing but average two milers – but all I am doing is debating your comment that the next few years looks appalling in this division – and I’m debating it sensibly and with facts.
Mike
apologies, I edited my ‘petty’ comment as I misread your post. I thought you were saying I was being petty – apologies once again TC
The Queen Mum is a pig of a race quality wise. Not even the reigning champ has ever run to a mark above 165 IMO.
You have Voy Por Ustedes, Twist Magic and now with today Master Minded all running to the low 160’s.
To be honest stick a pin in and take a chance, any of them could win it.
Personally I think My Way De Solzen at his best would beat them all.
Seems that myself and TC are disagreeing on a couple of issues today.
VPU has been defeated by his two market rivals for the Queen Mother already this season – Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek and now Master Minded in the Game Spirit.
Call me mad, but my money will still be on the reigning champion come March. His record at The Festival is two-for-two, with victories in the 2006 Arkle and the 2007 Champion Chase. He’s obviously a horse who thrives at that time of year and clearly loves Cheltenham.
Master Minded is prone to the odd error and, given his inexperience, could be vulnerable around Prestbury Park.
I just can’t emphasize the ‘Cheltenham Effect’ enough.
Don’t worry TC, I wasn’t being disrespectful
I know where you are coming from with your opinions, believe me I do. We’ve seen so many potentially great horses not progress.
The basis of my opinion was simply to say that if horses like MF, WC and AZERTY can progress to the top level, then there’s no reason why TM and MM can’t either.
All the best,
Mike
Master Minded was very impressive considering he is just 5, travelled exceptionally. However, is it just me who finds the 9/2 now on offer about VPU for the big ‘un quite appealing? Take Master Minded’s 6lbs away, factor in the champs’ affinity for Cheltenham and I know who looks the best price of the two to me.
That being said, I won’t be touching the race until the day as I think the ground will be a real factor due to the differing stamina that the market leaders possess.
I think Bulwark hit the nail right in the head.
When a young horse like this breaks all the laws and defeats a horse like Voy por Ustedes,albeit not the best QM winner, you have to look beyond the fact he won by 5 lengths.
The distance between VPU and Mahogony Blaze was 21 lenths that is one helluva distance between the 2nd and third. This form looks absolutely rock solid and it could take a lot more than 6lbs to bring the first and second together.
One worry would be PN said he was ready to run at Cheltenham today and you really wouldn’t want a young horse to be that forward at this time. if the horse has peaked there’s only one way he can go. With 4 weeks to go I think he has time to let him down a little and then bring him back just in time for the the big one.
Can’t wait to hear what they have to say about the horse and if they announce Ruby rides I think he’ll start at a very short price.
I have to say having watched the race twice that Ruby Walsh stole his winning distance at the start and possibly a little bit more.
The jockey won the day today, however at Cheltenham no one gets an easy lead like MM got todayand that is where VPU will come into his own especially off level weights.
I cannot see him getting beaten.
I have to say having watched the race twice that Ruby Walsh stole his winning distance at the start and possibly a little bit more.
The jockey won the day today, however at Cheltenham no one gets an easy lead like MM got todayand that is where VPU will come into his own especially off level weights.
I cannot see him getting beaten.
I don’t agree that MM pinching ground at the start was a factor. He was clearly the better horse on the day and for my money would have won at levels, no matter how the race was run. Cheltenham could be different though.
personally i very much doubt the horse will turn up at cheltenham this year. i expect he will run at aintree or punchestown. Just got a feeling PN wants this to be twist magics year after hyping the horse so much
dave 22 Posted: 09 Feb 2008 22:30 Post subject:
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personally i very much doubt the horse will turn up at cheltenham this year. i expect he will run at aintree or punchestown. Just got a feeling PN wants this to be twist magics year after hyping the horse so much
Then why have they backed it so heavily for cheltenham?
I also disagree that he stole lengths at the start, he moved forward becuase no-one else would go and he showed a good temperament to stay there and keep driving all the way. Voy Por Ustedes moved up before the fifth from home to take the race to him and was put firmly in his place.
I was thinking of laying the horse off, but then thought it would be better to just back Voy Por Ustedes and Twist Magic to win back the amount Ive put on this one. But then thought Id watch the race back and to be fair Im going to just leave the bet to run, I think this horse will win.
Voy Por Ustedes beat River City and Dempsey in last years Champ Chase and they are hardly monsters (dempsey only beaten by 1 3/4 lengths). Twist magic beat Voy Por Ustedes by 3 lengths on ground that probably wasnt optimal for him, at a time of the season that doesn’y usually see him at his best, and instantly became a big horse in the champ chase picture, he is certainly a good horse.
There is the possibity as FoF states that he has peaked too soon, but although PN said today that he was in cheltenham winning form, the horse has had only two races this season (I dont include the one where he fell at the first as that was not a race for him), he’s completely outclassed howle hill, and now he’s outclassed Voy Por Ustedes who I thought moved very well today, on ground that suited against a better horse, he to be looked at his best to me, king gave a good report on him this morning and looked downcast when his horse was beaten.
We havent seen the limits to this horse yet and he doesnt look to have to improve by more than a few lbs to secure victory in the champ chase on that run. Some of his jumps were foot perfect today, all were good and he travelled and went on like a star.
If I didnt have a bet on this horse I would probably stay clear of this race as dont really like the prices of anything, I might have considered voy por at 9/2 but then that looks to be about correct, he’ll be peaking at cheltenham, but dont think he can really run much better than he did today, and he’s got to reverse form with an improving young horse who has already beaten him fairly easily. Twist magic is priced up about correct and I think he will put his defeat by tamarinbleu (looked a tactical defeat to me) behind him at cheltenham and put in a good run.
Of the Top three though, if I had to pick one and they were all the same prices it would be Master Minded, as he goes to cheltenham as the one theyve got to beat and we’ve not yet seen his limits yet. I hope he’s fit and well come cheltenham as he looks to have star quality about him.
I think the first 3 in the QMCC could be a layers nightmare and there are easier races to pick winners in now. Im going to leave my 12-1 to run its course and hope Im right we do have a very good horse.
Yeah its looking good GT but in all fairness we all look at different things and weight different things in diferent ways. If someone tipped me one and I just couldnt see it I wouldn’t back it myself, I’ve had it a few times in the past.
Got a phone call the day detroit city won the cesarewitch saying he was going to win, and to get on, but despite the fact that the fella calling me was pretty reliable I just couldn’t see it myself, I didnt back it, was gutted when it won.
Its a bit of a shame there isnt a few more on it at the prices but then its a bit of extra excitement. Im just getting money down at the minute while Im up, hoping that come cheltenham I wont have to back anything short, getting there is probably the hardest part though
. Fingers crossed on this one as think its my favorite bet for the festival…
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I’d say that Twist Magic and today’s winner come out roughly the same, with Master Minded having possibly more scope for improvement.
With VPU not good enough and MWDZ in the wilderness, that still leaves Tamarinbleu – who, however you look at it, had Twist Magic on toast lto – as much the likeliest winner in my book.
With the ground on the 2nd day likely to be manufactured to no faster than good, his early pace and superior jumping could well see him doing a Make A Stand, and having the race won before the turn into the straight.I thought tamarinbleus defeat of twist magic was a really good performance, it took a really good temperament to go from the front and stay there, even though the ground was testing, not to mention some brilliant judgement of pace by scudamore.
Nevertheless, Tamarinbleu was stepping down in trip and had that extra stamina and the action for the ground and it looked to me like a very good plan coming together. On Good ground, however, horses travel better and it will be hard to do the same as think the top three will go with him every inch of the way. Think the race would have to be run in an extremely fast pace on good ground to see a repeat, but then would he be suited to such a pace on better ground, as its a different type of race. I suspect that is why there hasnt been a great deal of money for him in this market since his defeat of twist magic.I couldnt rule him out, but i think the stable will wait on the weather with him.
Yeah its looking good GT but in all fairness we all look at different things and weight different things in diferent ways. If someone tipped me one and I just couldnt see it I wouldn’t back it myself, I’ve had it a few times in the past.
Got a phone call the day detroit city won the cesarewitch saying he was going to win, and to get on, but despite the fact that the fella calling me was pretty reliable I just couldn’t see it myself, I didnt back it, was gutted when it won.
Its a bit of a shame there isnt a few more on it at the prices but then its a bit of extra excitement. Im just getting money down at the minute while Im up, hoping that come cheltenham I wont have to back anything short, getting there is probably the hardest part though
. Fingers crossed on this one as think its my favorite bet for the festival…Is there any reason why you continue to after-time and mention your millions of ante-post bets? We already know you’re a betting god. You don’t need to keep making references to them.
After time? I hardly think mentioning a bet i didnt do is aftertiming, or is it, i dont know? My antepost bets are a bit of longterm excitement for me, its my little thing at the minute and I dont really see that they should pose that much of a problem to be honest.
I am no betting god, and ive never proclaimed to be anything of the sort, i am a recreational punter and have a full time job, i bet because it gives me something to do and i like to bet.
I dont know where your aggression is coming from TC, perhaps its a bad month/years etc. betting for you, but to be honest i dont really think ive been ignorant to you and cant really be bothered with ignorance in general, take a chill pill mate…
Have timed the Game Spirit, from the moment Master Minded decided to move. My hand held time was just 1 second slower than standard. Comfortably the best time of the day. It suggests either the performance was exceptional or the other races were slowly run (doubtful with the Totesport Trophy). It also means Master Minded acts on what I would describe as Good-soft, good in places which is promising if it does ride good at Cheltenham.
The stat about no 5yo winning is a false one as I doubt if many have run and even fewer having a second season chasing. Master Minded is hardly the normal 5yo either, being so big and rapidly improving. Hopefully he will jump like he did the last twice and not before.
I would say he deserves to be favourite now. Tamarinbleu may or may not be the best horse but I would expect him to run in the Festival Chase unless it comes up soft. Doubt if he has enough speed for 2m on good. It is bound to be a fast run race if the Pipe horse runs. Having said that, if on the day he is still the same price as he is now, would be worth taking a chance and back him, even on good ground.
Twist Magic’s chance depends on the ground. Although he acts on soft I do not think he stays the trip. Even on good ground he has not always found much off the bridle. His form is I believe slightly better than his stablemate, but is not as likely to improve or run to form.
Voy Por Ustedes may be a couple of pounds better at Cheltenham but he seems thoroughly exposed now.
Jack The Giant would come in to things only if he makes abnormal improvement.
I am going to have nightmares about that second last.Ginge
Value Is Everything
. Fingers crossed on this one as think its my favorite bet for the festival…
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