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I disagree about howle hill race FoF, Masterminded was a big positive on the morning line that morning, then they asked nicholls on the morning line and he said that he was probably his best bet that day (aswell as the one who got chinned by nacarat that day, if i remember), then the horse drifted to 7/2 in the pre-race market and was backed back in to 9/4.
Howle hill looked in great form that day, and it looked like a 2 horse race untill MM forced HH to make a blunder (MM jumped really well), HH had the form in the book before and after and looked to have it in the race but just looked outclassed by a better horse. Hasty prince also recieved money that day and despite running well and taking 6lbs from MM he was never getting near him. MMs rating looks pretty honest and puts him within a stone of a Champ chase winning rating, with his inexperience in mind he could realistically have that sort of improvement in him, a placing or better in the QMCC certainly looks within his compass and a 12-1 isnt a bad price in a market, Tamarinbleu will do nothing in the champ chase unless its very testing ground, so its really Voy Por and Twist, and if this one goes well tomorrow then him to, but other than those two, what else is there that doesnt already look beatable in the champ chase.
The 5yo trend doesnt worry me as it is a race like any other and class on the day prevails in any race, this horse is certainly very classy for a 5yo and whether thats enough, time will tell.
A straight line through the markets, with every firm, two days running, his price 20s and 16s in to a general 8-1, with Hills now taking no chances going 7-1. Doesnt really look like punter support to me, unless a very rich person has just lost the plot, jump on punters will make up a certain proportion of that but there must surely be method in that kind of madness…
Well I hope for your sake you are right I have no axe to grind so I can leep an open mind on it.
I will say I have a contact at Hills and if I get a hold of him I will find out juts how much of this money is real.
The fact he is running in the Game Spirit is probaly more likely to be the reason people are having abet but these bookies cut horses for 200 quid.
If I fancied the horse to win the QM I would back him and make sure I had enough on him to cover my bet when he runs tomorrow.
As Twist Magic beat Voy Por Ustedes and he has won easily since your horse is ging to have to be some cookie to win tomorrow. I will be amazed if he gets within 5 lengths of the VPU and to have the remotest chance in the QM he is going to have to do much better than that.
I’m not a big fan of Voy Por Ustedes or I would have a massive bet on him but I have already backed my quota for this weekend so I will give it a miss………………hope he trots up for you as it could lead to the first 5yo in History to win the QMCC and wouldn’t that be something!!!
Sorry Letsgetracing but:
Fist,
I would estimate, right now, before tomorrows race, that Master Minded has an 11% 8/1 chance of winning the QM. Might be wrong but that is my estimate.
You need to win 7.7% of your bets at 12/1 to make a profit. 12/1 = 7.7%I agree Twist Magic, Voy Por and Tamarinbleu all have a better chance, just not value at current odds.
It only has to have a better than 7.7% chance for 12/1 to be va (that word).
Therefore 12/1 is in my opinion good V.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingI will give you my percentage opinion on the chance of Master Minded winning the Champion Chase.
0% – Following my unique percentage analysis, this horse is not value at ANY price as it wont win.
Voy Pur Ustedes will absolutely destroy him at Newbury tomorrow and the people who jumped on the gamble will be very unhappy chappies.
He has a higher than 0% chance of winning tomorrow but even in the highly unlikely event that he does win on Saturday, I still give absolutely no chance of winning the Champion Chase.
I rarely lay above 3.0 and 3.5 is my absolute cut off point.
So I wont be laying you one single penny at 1000.00
Just looking at the preview for the game spirit on the racing post site, the following quote is very interesting especially as the gamble started yesterday…
French recruit Master Minded hails from Paul Nicholls’ stable and created a huge impressionat Sandown last time.
"We are very excited about him, Sam (Thomas) schooled him on Thursday and he schooled very well," said Nicholls.
"He has physically improved enormously since he ran at Sandown and I’m really looking forward to running him at Newbury."
At least there looks to be an exciting build up for the game spirit..
Admitedly that’s got to be scary for punters who have bet the fav. Let’s wait and see if he can achieve the near impossible and win today and win the QMCC, be some achievement if he does.
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I get the distinct feeling, supported by the euphoria for this horse, and Big Bucks running over an inadequate trip today, that Noland will be a non-runner in the Champion Chase?
But then, he would be, as he’s entered in the Arkle.Sorry Letsgetracing but:
Fist,
I would estimate, right now, before tomorrows race, that Master Minded has an 11% 8/1 chance of winning the QM. Might be wrong but that is my estimate.
You need to win 7.7% of your bets at 12/1 to make a profit. 12/1 = 7.7%I agree Twist Magic, Voy Por and Tamarinbleu all have a better chance, just not value at current odds.
It only has to have a better than 7.7% chance for 12/1 to be va (that word).
Therefore 12/1 is in my opinion good V.
Ginge
Mate you are not talking about Master Minded you are talking about virtually any 8/1-12/1 shot in any race at any track in any country in the world.
Your backing dice throws not horses. It’s as I said when you first joined a system nothing more nothing less…….and like all sytems doomed to failure.
The most boring way of approaching racing one could ever hope to come across. Horse racing is a sport and is meant to be fun. Sure people like to win but about 95% lose but still come back for more. The are not compulsive gamblers or they would be betting on everything that moves……they love the sport and what comes with it.
As I said how you can back or come to the conclusion a horse has a 7.7% chance of winning is total pie in the Sky.
There is a huge difference between a horse like Denman 8/1 and some selling plater 8/1 but your system puts them all in one big bag you back them all with absolutely no idea of what 2 are going to win and probaly care even less………
The hard fact about this race today is Master Minded is going to have to beat a QMCC winner to be a serious challenger to the crown. His trainer should know how he compares to Twist Magic and that’s probably the ace he has up his sleeve. If he is a better horse than Twist Macic then his chances at Cheltenham must be nearer 95% of winning the race not 7.7%
If he is badly beaten today his chances of even running would be about 2% and his chances of winning even less
IT IS NOT A SYSTEM.
Systems tell you what to back, this is your own knowledge.
I think MM has an 11% chance, he was available at 12/1. A 7.7% SR is needed at 12/1 to break even.Tell me Fists,
Why isn’t every horse in each race the same price?Value Is EverythingNo Ginger you tell me if it’s not a sytem explain to us all irrespective of his odds……..just totally forget the price and give me and everyone else a breakdown of [b:19qk8ezg]how you get to 11% chance of winning.[/b:19qk8ezg]
You are looking at odds mate not the horse therefor it is a sytem/ mathematical calculation.
You talk about your knowledge but you are talking about matematics not horses…………This is the HORSE RACING section sytems are down the corridor and 2nd door on the left.
Anyway if you fancy a horse what does it matter if he is 8/1 and why bother calculatiing something that only applies to that bracket………you can only compare your chances being x% if you only back 8/1 shots…….you back a 2/1 shot and an 1/1 money shot in between you whole system is goosed…………so basically no matter what way I look at it it comes out as total BS.
Has anyone read Paul Nicholls report in the racing post today, you dont get much more bullish that…
*Masterminded worked with kauto star in the week and his performance was breath taking
*Voy por ustedes has 7lbs on MM on todays figures but nicholls must stress that his horse has come on massively.
*He reckons that the horse is in cheltenham festival winning form at the minute
Win, lose or draw today, it certainly looks like the move from 20s into 8s wasnt punter support
Im well excited now, lets hope he’s right as this is the race of the day for me…
I think you are going to find out somewhat painfully that any betting strategy based on hype and following the money is doomed to failure….
I fully agree with that statement carvers, but on the other hand only getting on the right gambles has the potential for success. But then only getting on the right horses on the day for any reason whatsoever has the potential for success.
I dont really even use the markets on the flat, but keep an eye out for moves from two trainers who almost always sort me out. On the jumps however, where horses have no stud potential and the prize money largely aint that great, theres loads of big gambles going on, and I find it is quite prudent to keep an eye on what is going on, especially with massive market shifts, that make no sense on public knowledge.
So far this season Ive been listening to what nicholls has been saying and only backing the ones that I personally like at prices i like, and have been doing pretty well off it.
Obviously I have my form picks going on aswell, but gamble jump ons have their place in my overall betting strategy, because in a game where knowledge is a powerful thing, money talks in the betting. To me it would be unwise to ignore it.
Kauto Star working with Master Minded – is this the same Paul Nicholls that told us after the defeat of KS at Aintree that he would in future gallop KS with stayers rather than speed horses ?
Bearing in mind that Master Minded was second in a Grade 1 chase in France over 2M 5F, I wonder if defeat today would encourage them to aim him at the Ryanair, given that Nicholls has lost his obvious main candidate for that race, Taranis.
AP
But then, he would be, as he’s entered in the Arkle.
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