- This topic has 128 replies, 35 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 3 months ago by
.
- Posts
I think that Masterminded is still value also, Ive said before, he can only beat himself, Voy Por Usedes was on song last time and was beaten fair and square. I think he is probably the value of the race, the way I see it.
My honest opinion of the top 4 is as follows.
If you back masterminded then you back a horse who looks like a star, who has a lot of confidence behind him and who has already rubbed egg in the face of the in form reigning champ and goes into the race looking like he can only be beaten by other factors than the opposition. 11/4
If you back Voy Por Ustedes I think you are hoping for three results a) that masterminded falls or turns up out of form and b) that voy por ustedes doesnt fall and c) that he can beat the remainder, with twist magic having already beat him this season. 4/1
If you back Twist Magic then you are backing a horse who has thrown in a possibly below par effort last time and who’s stable and jockey are electing masterminded over at the same price. 3/1
If you back Tamarinbleu, on anything better than soft then its money down the drain, the horse will not be able to employ the tactics he used to beat twist magic on dead ground becuase on good ground the whole field will just travel with him and in the closing stages he will just be made to look one paced and outclassed by the top three and probably a few others aswell. He needs bad ground to employ his stamina to his advantage, without it he cant win IMHO. 15/2
What about the negatives for Master Minded as well as the positives Bulwark?
And the positives as well as the negatives the others?For example:
Negatives for MM.
Master Minded is on form as yet not much better than Voy Por, if at all.
He is untested on good ground, though newbury was not far off it.
Got a soft lead in the Game Spirit (far from doing it the hard way Fist, it was the easy way). Unlikely to get an easy lead at Cheltenham if Tamarinbleu is in the field.
Jumped well but slightly right-handed at Newbury, not ideal for Cheltenham. Has jumped well the last twice but before that was not the best of jumpers.
Is very young and still a bit inexperienced and is unproven at Cheltenham.Positives for Tamarinbleu:
Proven at Cheltenham and experienced jumper.
Acts on both good and heavy going.
Improving fast.
Although good going will not bring his stamina in to play as at Ascot, the stiffer course will (though may be not as much as heavy).
May have enough speed if he is "ridden" from the start.
Is almost three times the price of Master Minded.Ginge
Value Is EverythingI think those positives and negatives are very misleading Ginger, especially the positives for Tamarinbleu.
Tamarin bleu is only tested at 2m4/2m5 on good ground, on good ground the best rating he has acheived at 2 miles is 20lbs short of what is required at 150 (and even that was good to soft).
The horse is only proven at cheltenham at 2m5f, at 2miles at cheltenham in the 2006 arkle he was beaten 19 lengths into ninth behind voy por ustedes running to a rating of 149.
I dont think the stiff track will be able to play to his strengths anywhere near enough for him to get competitive in this race and I believe he will be made to look one paced as he has when trying out good ground at cheltenham at 2 miles before.
The horse looks to have improved by about 5 or 10 lbs at what is his true distance, and has ran a good (if misleading) rating on soft ground at 2miles, because he turned it into a staying contest with himself as the only likely stayer. The beaten horses were dead on their feet which accounts for the wide margin of his win. If the ground came up similar at cheltenham I would expect him to live up to his rating, but good ground will just make it look a silly rating.
His track record suggests he doesnt have the cruising speed or the turn of foot required for the task of winning at cheltenham at 2 miles on good ground.
His price is close to 3 times the price (15/2) of masterminded because of his own hype, on the likely conditions fair along is proven as a better horse at the distance than tamarinbleu and he is 16-1.
If the ground comes up soft or worse then I would definitely consider a safety bet on tamarinbleu but otherwise hes forgotten about.
The Negatives against Master Minded are generally quite speculative.
Theres no reason to suspect that the horse wont handle good, he doesnt have a heavy knee action and the ground at newbury (as you say) wasnt far off it.
I think hes at least a couple of lbs better than Voy Por on that last run and still improving, nicholls has since reported that he and the work riders think the horse has improved since newbury.
I dont think the lead he took played any real part in him beating voy por, ruby seemed initially hesitant in taking him to the front, he hadnt raced from the front previously, but it was the only way they were going to get a decent pace, and looked to be why he went there, it is a positive for his temperament that he stayed at the front so well.
His jumping had been poor early in his short career and he unseated on his first start for nicholls (first attempt at british chasing fences) but nicholls had said prior to his january win that he been schooled extensively on his jumping since then and he has been foot perfect the last two starts since then. Jumping regression is the only possible negative I can see.
He may be inexperienced but he looks very mature and professional, more so than voy por ustedes on his last two starts. Most of the horses who dont take to cheltenham are slow paced seasonal winners that cant handle the increased tempo at cheltenham, that was how I always saw beef or salmon for example, or horses that are of bad temperament that react to the crowds, I dont think MM falls into any of those categories.
I think the only possible negative is that his jumping could return to that of his inexperienced days and he could fall, but that looks more unlikely than likely to happen. The pressure he puts other horses under on his last two runs have caused them to make mistakes while he has looked very professional.
There is always the possibility that Masterminded could get beaten like any horse could in any race, nothing is certain, but Id say he looks one of the strongest chances at cheltenham, and I think he looks very hard to beat with 11/4 a decent enough price, looking at the horse and the horses task.
- Total Posts 17716
Bulwark
Re Tamarinbleu, aren’t you forgetting a few things?
The horse has improved markedly for the addition of blinkers and being ridden from the front, so much so that any of his prior form is rendered redundant as a meaningful measure.That improvement is also comfortably more than the 20lb you opine that he requires.
The soft ground that you insist he requires at 2m cannot have been the only reason he was clear, and stretching, some fast horses after only half a mile of his last race.
No matter how you dress it up, his VC win, on both time and form, is by some way the outstanding 2m chase perfomance of this season.
No one knows whether or not he can replicate that performance over 2m on good ground, I for one think he will, the stable (I suspect) also do.
If he runs, which I believe is highly likely, it will be Goodnight Vienna to any 15/2 and, I suggest, Master Minded too.I do like the horse reet and indeed you may be right, but it is just the way I see the horse and the performance. Ive seen that sort of tactic done a few times, one good example was carruthers earlier in the season, and indeed takes very good performance which I would agree would be up there with the best, and indeed probably the best of the season thus far. But in form terms i see it as a single event that wont be followed up on different circumstances.
Its just the way I see racing, I personally think it is perfectly feasible for a horse who runs at 2m4/2m5 to drop back to 2m (actually 2m1f for VC) on soft ground and just run the 2 mile chasers into the ground, if he can handle soft ground and run from the front. That is how I see the race, and I could be wrong. However, IMHO on better ground it is not as easy to do, horses generally travel better, the better the ground (unless not handling it) because moving on it isnt as energy sapping, and at good ground I think most of the field will go with him, and a few will be full of running in the closing stages.
I may have the horse wrong and time will tell, but thats just how I see the horse and the race, needless to say if it comes up soft I’ll be on him quicker than you can say jack robinson.
Ginge you said Got a soft lead in the Game Spirit (far from doing it the hard way Fist, it was the easy way).
This Soft Lead that is so often used for an excuse for horses getting beaten is a complete and utter fallacy.
VPU was exactly where his jockey wanted him to be. Ruby on the other hand wanted a lead and some pace injected into the race and no one was prepared to do it. His trainer and jockeys opinions are of the same frame of mind……he is a btter horse coming from off the pace and want’s a good gallop.
If you think making the running for VOP who is well known for waiting and pouncing gave MM some kind of advantage then you are seriously mistaken IMO
Post before last is a very good summary Bulwark.
I never worry too much about past jumping problems with Nicholls horses because he so frequently addresses this successfully. Kauto being a very obvious example
I dont really know what to make of Tamarinbleus recent performance, but it is pretty clear that hes not a horse that has been previously trained with the champion chase in mind. Although im not a complete subscriber to the Mordin theory about conditioning to distances, this is a really specialist distance for me (escpecially over likely good ground) and how many do we see dropping back from 3m trips successfully a the top level?
To my mind Master Minded would have beaten VPU nicely at Newbury even without the 6lb concession.
I’m afraid I haven’t read all eight pages of this thread so apologies if this point has already been made but the fact is to win a Champion Chase you basically need to be either an Arkle Winner or a previous Champion Chase winner.
That gives us a shortlist of:
Contraband (1st 2005 Arkle)
My Way De Solzen (1st 2007 Arkle)
Newmill (1st 2006 Champion Chase)
Voy Por Ustedes (1st 2007 Champion Chase)what absolute bllx
Apologies for replying to your comment on another thread. I didn’t realise you had no interest in a sensible discussion
Newmill had never run at Cheltenham before his win two years ago.
Having said that, the record of winners of the arkle and previous champion chases is certainly impressive in recent years. I think if I was going to take this trend seriously, I would exclude winners of arkles in the distant past (contraband). MWDS won’t run so you’re left with Newmill and VPU. Newmill doesn’t look the same horse these days so VPU must be a model for this. If only it were that simple!
Bit too straight to the point Tuffers but he is right. Can’t be anymore than half a dozen Arkle winners that have won the QMCC.
The Arkle attracts young horses who are in some cases excellent 2 milers but most end up runnung over further. Some even say you need to be a 2 1/2 mile horse to win it and a year on the Miles of the QMCC is too sharp for them.
Like this years favourite like Noland is highly unlikely to be running over 2 miles next season.
Pendil a brilliant 3 miler won the race as did Gold Cup winner Aleverton
Voy Por Ustedes
Azertyuiop
Moscow Flyer
Flagship Uberalles
Klairon Davis
Remittance ManThere’s half a dozen and we are still in the 90s
Trends can be over simplified but to suggest that the Arkle isn’t a good trial for the Champion Chase seems an odd concept.
Newmill had never run at Cheltenham before his win two years ago.
Having said that, the record of winners of the arkle and previous champion chases is certainly impressive in recent years. I think if I was going to take this trend seriously, I would exclude winners of arkles in the distant past (contraband). MWDS won’t run so you’re left with Newmill and VPU. Newmill doesn’t look the same horse these days so VPU must be a model for this. If only it were that simple!
I would agree with that analysis. The trend produces a shortlist but you can then apply your other skills as a form student to reduce that shortlist to the one or two you want to bet. IMHO Newmill was a very lucky winner and was one of those surprising results that no amount of form study can cater for.
As for it being too simple to have a shortlist of one horse – some might say it was refreshingly simple
I do think that trends have their place and I find them very interesting as a way of working down a field, however, sometimes you will get horses who break trends. Kauto Star Im sure has broken many trends in his career.
The way I see it the best horse on the day wins, however that horse does not necessarily have to have won a set race to fit into a bracket.
The form of VPUs champ chase looks to have been called into question a couple of times this season through his beating by Twist Magic. But then when you think about his champ chase win, the placed horses were not exactly 2 mile chasers of the highest calibre, and it would be fairly easy to say that with Well Chief departing at the first that VPU was the only serious contender of what was a bad bunch left over.
No five year old has ever won the champ chase but MM, so the trends already have him beaten, but VPU looked in fine shape but looked to be in serious trouble behind him at newbury.
My honest opinion of VPU has changed since his beating by MM, I even said on this thread that if msterminded failed in the game spirit that I would probably back VPU on the day, but what I think his game spirit defeat made clear is that he has been a dominant force in a weak division for a while, but now there looks to be a couple of decent horses who I dont really think he can cope with.
I honestly suspect MM could be a rare horse, there arent many 5yo chasers if any that have entered the champ chase on the same rating as him, he has an air of authority and superiority when he runs, Howle Hill and VPU have found that out already, and a we will know better after the champ chase, if that is the case, with regards his entire generation. If it is then he could be a horse who will dominate this division for some time to come and 11/4 could be the best price we will ever see on him again.
The Arkle is a grade 1 for top class 2 mile novice chasers at Cheltenham.
The Champion chase is a grade 1 for top class 2 mile chasers at Cheltenham.It is hardly surprising that both races should be good guides to the Champion Chase, a grade 1 race for top class 2m chasers at Cheltenham.
But form, one horses performance against the next, has much more to do with it. Bulwark is right. VPU has this season proved he is exposed. Last years Champion Chase was a poor renewal, River City in third keeps the form down. VPU has run to that form this season but was beaten fair and square by Twist Magic.
Newmill won the Champion, and that was not a one off as he produced the same form at Punchestown. But as already said by others, has been disappointing this term.
As for the dog Contraband, the Pipe team got rid of him for very little, and anyone expecting him to produce even his Arkle form are backing a 2000/1 + chance.
MWDS does not run.Trends are often used by punters who do not want to do any / much work studying. Trends have a place but only a place in working out a race. When everything else points to other horses having a better chance then ignore the trends.
Ginge
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.