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Took the 33’s E/W on Fine rightly today. Well beaten by Douvan over 2 miles last time out and looking foward to seeing him over 3 miles in this race.
Hopefully he can make up into a Gold Cup horse in his next couple of runs.
Took 200+ for the Gold Cup also for £3
I hope you’re right about him being a Gold Cup horse Botchy, I’ve a few quid on him at 680’s for Cheltenham, and the way he travelled behind Douvan last time, would suggest he’s still got a bit to offer. It’s very difficult to find too many faults in him here, and his price of 33’s looks way big. Slight concern that he’s got an entry for The Rowland Meyrick, but surely this is the main target.
It’s not actually a race I go mad in, and more often that not, I’ll watch it without a bet, but there is some potential juice in some of the prices.
Empire of Dirt must have a chance, and I’ll be disappointed if he can’t outrun his odds of 16’s. In fact I’d be disappointed if he can’t go close.
Zabana is one of my shortlist horses for The Gold Cup, and I think this is his trip, despite him doing much of his winning over shorter. Very difficult to forget that win at Punchestown last spring, and I’d expect him to improve as the season progresses.
Seems a long time since Lord Windermere won his Gold Cup, but after being in the wilderness for a while, his comeback run last time was encouraging, and apart from the fear of the dreaded “bounce” factor, you could make a price for him being overpriced at 25’s.
Jonjo/JP won this with Synchronised, but both Minella Rocco, and More of That could miss this, and would have to be day of the race bets, though may be tempted for a few quid if they stood their ground tomorrow.
I’ve liked the way Outlander has shaped recently, and though this wouldn’t appear to be his optimum trip, for a horse who was supposedly Kempton bound, it’s interesting that they’ve swerved that prize, and could head here.
Otago Trail has bags of potential I reckon, and the way he won The Rehearsal last time, albeit against lesser opposition, suggests to me he has a chance of going closer here than his odds of 66’s would suggest.
I’ll hold fire till tomorrow though, but at tonights prices, Fine Rightly, and Empire of Dirt make most appeal.
As I said, not a big betting race for me, but have bet Fine Rightly ew 33’s, and More of That ew 50’s.
In all honesty though, I’ll be cheering on Empire of Dirt & Zabana, who are both big fancies for The Gold Cup, and I’d love to see them both run big races.
Been on Valseur Lido for weeks and weeks.
Spent the last fortnight praying that he runs. After coneygree nt going in KG, I feared the connections of VL would go here. Thankfully not.
Main bet over Christmas for me. Massively.
Fine Rightly not declared for Wetherby VTC
Still some 33’s left
Sod it, gone in again E/W @ 33’s
It is 3 furlongs beyond his optimum and the ground will almost certainly be quite a bit softer than ideal but the horse that is priced up wrongly is Empire Of Dirt. He should be around 4/1, not 14/1.
The other negative for Empire Of Dirt – and possibly more important than the other two – would be the loss of Bryan Cooper. I am assuming he is mistakenly going to pick Valseur Lido.
Valseur Lido has only won two out of his last ten starts and although visually impressive at Down Royal the actual substance of that race now looks a lot more dubious given the subsequent efforts of Silviniaco Conti.
I don’t think Djakadam has bettered his initial Gold Cup second. He was way below that level on seasonal debut and pretty much all out to hold Outlander, another horse who has developed a habit of finishing second. He might remain a reasonably solid yardstick but despite only rising eight it wouldn’t be such a surprise if we had already seen the best of him.
I must admit I vowed never again to back More of that again over fences after last time, but he’ll strip fitter for that race and his current price seems too big when you consider that his trainer described him as the best horse he’d ever trained before that run. So I’m with venture to cognac here.
Bookies offering 40’s on Fine Rightly now. Ok added another E/w bet 1/4 the odds
Bloody hell, PP just went 66’s Had another 10 E/W
Djakadam is the class act. Nothing any rival has done so far would’ve been good enough to be second in one Gold Cup, let alone two. Didn’t need to be at best to win on reappearnce, needing reappearance and/or further to be seen at best. Should be 6/4 for this, not 9/4! Outlander ran well to be 1 1/4 lengths 2nd, but is far less likely to be as effective at this trip and met Djakadam not at his best.
Valseur Lido might have won Irish Gold Cup but for falling at the last. Had 11 lengths to spare from Silviniaco Conti in JN Wine, but latter well below his best on reappearance. Third, Lord Scoundrel only another 4 1/2 away and so keeping the form down. Can only see Valseur Lido drifting. That said, is one with scope to improve as a stayer. Not yet the satandard of Djakadam.
Zabana won well enough last time, but does needs to step up quite significantly to beat an in form Djakadam.
More Of That would be a top class racehorse if getting his wind finally fixed. Getting 3 lbs and a 9 3/4 lengths beating from King George also ran Josses Hill, 3rd in Peterorough last time nowhere near up to this class. Yard are in better form now, a positive also for Taquin De Seuil. Won BetVictor Gold Cup under 11-11, but in truth had been dropped and only needed a return to form. Does he stay well enough?
Don Poli would have a squeak on last year’s form, but disappointed on reappearance/first start for Gordon Elliott. To such a degree looked amiss/temperamental. Wait for a market move either way to show his chance.
Gilgamboa had no chance against Douvan at 2m last time and then got brought down. Fourth in the Grand National last season and won’t want to get too high in the handicap for JP.
Smashing is a smashing animal in his own grade, this isn’t it.
Lord Windermere won the worst ever Gold Cup, not up to this.
Wounded Warrior is outclassed unless first time cheek pieces work the oracle. Ditto for Fine Rightly‘s tongue tie.
Arctic Skipper will be met with icey cold resistence if he wins.
Road To Riches is the one outsider that seems massively overpriced @ 25/1. Hasn’t run since October 1st – which is a slight concern – but was in the King George until late. Not won since lst season’s reappearance, but some good placed efforts in top company since. Including finishing almost alongside Valseur Lido over an inadequate 2m5f in Ryainair; 6 lengths behind Vautour. Also only 2 lengths behind Djakadam in 2015 Gold Cup.I’ve taken 9/4 Djakadam and 25/1 Road To Riches.
Value Is EverythingThink I have to be with Ginger Tipster here, I can’t see past Djakadam for this, and Road to Riches is massively over priced could easily run into a place here.
Djakadam exposed now at this trip and still prone to errors. Valseur Lido could have quite a bit to come over 3m+ and I prefer him.
GT there was a market move for Don Poli last time which signified zilch. Always thought he had plenty of talent and he must have something up with him when travelling at racing pace.
Would love to see him bounce back and took a wee bit of 140 for the GC on the off chance.
I agree with everything you’ve said ginger.
In relation to anyone thinking of don poli as an outsider, my opinion is that he and gilgamboa will be non triers looking for a reasonable grand national handicap mark.
Been on Valseur Lido for weeks and weeks.
Spent the last fortnight praying that he runs. After coneygree nt going in KG, I feared the connections of VL would go here. Thankfully not.
Main bet over Christmas for me. Massively.
Well he’s made it in one piece.
Come on Valseur Lido. Please win!
Just looked into my account and noticed i could cash out 33’s bets @ 20% loss and 40’s @ 10% so cashed out.
Anyway decided to back 66’s with Sports Book and it gave the option to add another place to E/W bets. So got 50’s E/W 4 places.
Never bet with them much but a good little option i thought
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