- This topic has 52 replies, 19 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Nice shout Graham on Don Poli, I really didn’t give him much of a chance, hope you got a good few quid back from him
Thanks Bob, managed to keep my head in front
Djakadam didn’t get the race run to suit. Having raced at 2m4f didn’t settle well enough here, lost ground with the scrimmaging home turn bbefore staying on again. Expect a different horse come Cheltenham Gold Cup, @ 16/1 bookies have over-reacted. Mullins doesn’t have another good Gold Cup chance this season, so cant’t see him going the Ryanair route. Outlander settled well and suited by the test of speed at the trip; not sure he’ll repeat it in a truly run 3m2f110yrds chase around a stiff Cheltenham… And if Outlander can’t then Valseur Lido won’t.
Tizz ‘ard to beat the Tizzard camp,
but if anything can
it be Djakadam.Value Is EverythingI doubt he can beat the Tizzards with Djakadam and wouldn’t put it past him to reroute Douvan to the race.
Come this time next month it will be two years since Djakadam won a race over 3 miles. He’s run 8 times since then and won only twice – both at 20f. He is unbeaten in his career in completed races at around that trip (fell once).
wouldn’t put it past him to reroute Douvan to the race.
Don’t go giving me a mini heart attacks writing things like that Joe.
Nothing would surprise me with Mullins, I backed Douvan at 12’s or 16’s can’t remember early doors because of it but the later it goes the less chance I can see it happening, surely they would have to give him a run over or similar to the distance and not going for the King George would suggest the 2 mile route this seasonGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I doubt he can beat the Tizzards with Djakadam and wouldn’t put it past him to reroute Douvan to the race.
Come this time next month it will be two years since Djakadam won a race over 3 miles. He’s run 8 times since then and won only twice – both at 20f. He is unbeaten in his career in completed races at around that trip (fell once).No Chance Joe. I know everyone is a bit scarred still from the Vautour situation but Douvan 100% runs in the Champion Chase. Its the only Mullins horse at this stage I could place with 100% certainty. God knows what he will do with the rest.
I doubt he can beat the Tizzards with Djakadam and wouldn’t put it past him to reroute Douvan to the race.
Come this time next month it will be two years since Djakadam won a race over 3 miles. He’s run 8 times since then and won only twice – both at 20f. He is unbeaten in his career in completed races at around that trip (fell once).
It’s now actually 9 runs since Djakadam’s last win at 3m+. Sometimes stats like this are significant, but is this?
Why does it matter that Djakadam has had 7 runs at 3m+ without winning, when 2 of those were career bests in 2 Gold Cups and one an equally as good runner-up spot in the Punchestown Gold Cup?
He’s at least as good – if not better at 3 1/4 miles as he is 2 1/2. When assessing the race a horse should go for it is the quality of performance that matters, not number of wins. Only one run at the shorter distance was up to his 3m+ standard… And for that 2m4f performance had heavy ground to bring out his stamina. Going right away in the closing stages.
But take out Djakadam’s Gold Cup runner-ups and what of those other 3m+ races?
First one was that good 7 lengths 2nd to Don Cossack in the Punchestown Gold Cup, 6 1/2 clear of the third Road To Riches (who he’d beaten only 2 lengths on their previous start (CheltenhamGold Cup). ie Djakadam ran better at Punchestown than in Coneygree’s Gold Cup.
Then fell early on in last year’s Betbright Trial at Cheltenham’s January fixture, so no knowing how he’d have run, can’t be a negative – can it?
Two defeats came at Aintree and Punchestown – after a very hard race at Cheltenham where he’d been 4 1/2 lengths runner up to Don Cossack. So is it surprising he was below form in those two?
Lastly, this Lexus. Unsuited by the pace, didn’t settle fully and not the clearest of runs at a vital stage in a comparitively slowly run race.So in 3 of the 7 non-winning 3m+ runs he’d put up some of the best staying performances seen those seasons and fell in another. Yet these are put forward as a reason to go for the Ryanair?
Value Is EverythingKey reason to go for the Ryanair is that he’d have a much better chance of winning it than winning the Gold Cup.
Last time at 20 furlongs he beat The Lexus winner – something he could not do yesterday when, with a run under his belt, logic and form says he should have. I wouldn’t judge a horse on one run, but if you are looking for recent evidence at top grade at levels with two horses in good consistent form and one comprehensively turns over the other when they go up in trip with Djakadam, to my eye, not fully seeing it out…that’s a pretty strong indication of a horse’s effectiveness at different trips.
Once again, he is thoroughly exposed at staying trips: not so at shorter where, in my opinion he is at least as good and very probably better. Aside from the Outlander form, on Djakadam’s previous 20 furlong run, he put up an RPR of 175.
Were he mine, he’d be in The Ryanair without question.
Yes, at 3m+ Djakadam is “thoroughly exposed” as one of the best staying chasers in GB&I.
Aside from the Outlander form, on Djakadam’s previous 20 furlong run, he put up an RPR of 175.
As I said Joe, that 12 lengths beating of a Valseur Lido (who was making his reappearance) was on heavy ground. Where stamina came in to play in the closing stages. imo You might have a case if Cheltenham comes up very soft, but that seems unlikely.
At the moment, I don’t think a 2 1/2 lengths beating of Sub Lieutenant can be rated as highly. ie Outlander having improved to win this.
Value Is EverythingFair enough, Mark. We’ll agree to disagree.
Where would he run at the festival if you owned him?
Definitely Gold Cup.
I know there was the Vautour debacle last year. But imo the right decision was made, just a month later than it should’ve been. Vautour was very unlikely stayer in an excellent quality year for stayers. Don and Cue both 180+ horses. Have my doubts Cue Card will turn up in this, Don Cossack probably be retired or not at his best, ditto Coneygree. May be Native River will improve in to a 180+ horse, but on the face of it doesn’t look as good a quality line up – bar Thistlecrack. Shouldn’t be afraid of one horse. Ryanair might have been more likely if Mullins/Ricci had an alternative Gold Cup horse – but Douvan won’t be put straight in to 3m2f without a longer staying campaign… And next Mullins horse in the market is Black Hercules @ 79/1 on the machine. Djakadam’s runner-up performances good enough to win many Gold Cups. Would’ve strolled home in Synchronised and Lord Windermere’s years.
Value Is EverythingMy cat would have strolled home in the years of Snychronised and Lord Windermere…
… and it’s dead.
My cat would have strolled home in the years of Snychronised and Lord Windermere…
… and it’s dead.
I heard that your cat would have beaten Arkle with a better jockey on board
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
:) Nice one Nathan
That wouldn’t happen to be the torso of one Mr Putin by chance? if so, you’d best be careful passing bowler-hatted men carrying sharp-tipped umbrellas.
Djakadam didn’t get the race run to suit. Having raced at 2m4f didn’t settle well enough here, lost ground with the scrimmaging home turn bbefore staying on again. Expect a different horse come Cheltenham Gold Cup, @ 16/1 bookies have over-reacted. Mullins doesn’t have another good Gold Cup chance this season, so cant’t see him going the Ryanair route. Outlander settled well and suited by the test of speed at the trip; not sure he’ll repeat it in a truly run 3m2f110yrds chase around a stiff Cheltenham… And if Outlander can’t then Valseur Lido won’t.
Tizz ‘ard to beat the Tizzard camp,
but if anything can
it be Djakadam.I’m about to beat a drum that I haven’t beaten for some time but given the Lexus result it’s one I feel I should beat.
I was one of those most critical of Gordon Elliott and his post race comments following the disappointments of Apples Jade and Don Poli at Down Royal, and while I remain critical of those comments, he has brought massive improvement out of them from those seasonal debuts.
Let’s look at Djakadam’s record when meeting Don Poli. The first time they met, in last season’s Gold Cup, Djakadam beat Don Poli, who it must be said received an atrocious ride, 10 lengths. Next time at Aintree, Don Poli reversed the form to beat Djakadam 8 lengths, with Djakadam likely feeling the effects of the Gold Cup. At Punchestown Djakadam came out on top by 2 lengths. In the Lexus Don Poli beat him in a photo for second.
It seems obvious to me the two are fairly well matched on ability. I think Don Poli had very valid excuses at Cheltenham while he has never ran to scratch at the Punchestown Festival. If we look at how Elliott has brought Apples Jade and Outlander along and the improvement that has come from race to race I’d say it’s likely Don Poli will make another jump in level of form when we see him again.
If he is ridden at Cheltenham like he was ridden in the Lexus or at Aintree last season then I think he’ll beat Djakadam, and he’s 50/1 with Djakadam at 16/1, so I find it hard to see the value in the latter.
The one worry for me is that the Grand National could be in their minds, but he’s only 8 and if he was mine he’d be trained with the Gold Cup in mind – if ridden aggressively the test a Gold Cup presents should see him capable of better performance than at Aintree and much better than in last year’s blue riband where he was given no chance whatsoever.
I was one of those most critical of Gordon Elliott and his post race comments following the disappointments of Apples Jade and Don Poli at Down Royal, and while I remain critical of those comments, he has brought massive improvement out of them from those seasonal debuts.
It seems obvious to me the two are fairly well matched on ability. I think Don Poli had very valid excuses at Cheltenham while he has never ran to scratch at the Punchestown Festival. If we look at how Elliott has brought Apples Jade and Outlander along and the improvement that has come from race to race I’d say it’s likely Don Poli will make another jump in level of form when we see him again.
Don’t want to sidetrack the thread but can anyone really say for sure that Apple’s Jade has improved for the step up in trip? Given what Petit Mouchoir has now achieved that initial ‘dire’ performance doesn’t look quite so bad. Perhaps the winner on that surface isn’t too bad either? Apple’s Jade won stepped up but she was well ridden and benefited from a shocking ride on the runner up who in any case is a difficult horse to rate accurately. She went on to win at Leopardstown but very much had the race run to suit. The Festivals will answer the questions but at this stage I would wary of thinking that Apple’s Jade has come on significantly since her seasonal debut.
Tommy, M O’Leary said in today’s RP that Don Poli will run in the Gold Cup on his way to the National. What they say and what they end up doing of course can be different.
I think he’d have a great chance at Aintree. He’s run to 168 RPR three times: one of those at Aintree, and to 166 twice, another one at Aintree. Those were his only two appearances there and although it was the Mildmay course, it could well be that a flat track and left handed (he has a fine Leopardstown record too) are his ideal. His Punchestown CV is lousy.
Coral’s 25 for the National seems value.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.