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If you keep accurate records of all your bets and find that over time you are actually losing (As most punters do), then the ultimate value would be not to bet at all.
You’re right EF, If a so called "value" punter does not make a profit over a long period of time, then he has FAILED in his mission to find "value" bets.
Value Is EverythingIf you are selective and not greedy, and use a workable staking plan, then the credit column should remain healthy enough –
without the need to find the odd 33/1 winner
.
Bet whichever way is most comfortable for you.
I use the cautious approach and it works well for me.
Betting
"value"
is
NOT
about backing outsiders H.
Punters get "value" even if their average priced bet is3/1
or even
1/3
. As long as the punter is
selective
and only backs those "short" prices when they are "
value
".
At level stakes:
Punters need a better than25%
strike rate on their
3/1
bets to make a profit. Therefore, they should
only
back any 3/1 shot
IF
they
believe
it has a better than 25% chance of winning.
At
1/3
punters need a better than
75%
strike rate to make a profit. So it makes sense if
only
backing 1/3 shots if they
believe
it has a better than 75% chance.
At
33/1
punters need a better than
3%
stike rate to make a profit (actually 2.94%). So it makes sense to back 33/1 shots
only
when they
believe
it has a better than 3% chance.
Of course, if a punter does not like backing outsiders, or isn’t any good at identifying big priced "value", he/she does
NOT
need to back 33/1 shots. But does
NEED to find VALUE
on his bets (
whatever price they may be
) to make a profit.
I found I am not so good at identifying "value" at very short prices, so seldom bet in that area.
Whatever any punter tells you, nobody KNOWS who’s going to win BEFORE the race. IF the punter is CORRECT in his assessments BEFORE the races, then it doesn’t matter if one particular 1/3, 3/1 or 33/1 shot loses, as long as he/she is CORRECT in his assessments BEFORE the races. ie IF winning more than 75% of 1/3 bets, more than 25% of 3/1 bets and more than 3% of 33/1 bets a punter WILL make a profit.
Conversely, it can be said it does NOT matter if one 1/3, 3/1 or even 33/1 shot WINS, if he/she does NOT win more than 75%, 25% and 3% respectively at those prices… He/she will NOT make a profit. OR, if not betting in level stakes, is highly unlikely / relying on luck to make a profit. And "luck" will run out in time.
Value Is EverythingAnyone who gets a price bigger than the SP Win,Lose or Draw has got the value
,you just feel a damn sight better when your 16/1 winner returns at 13/2!
No it isn’t.
If a punter takes a pricesignificantly
better than SP he/she has
probably
got value, true. But it is not good enough just to "get a price bigger than SP" to get "value". Price could be shortened up by the slightest thing these days. If a trainer/jockey/owner says something positive about a horse in the Racing Post/Plus/RUK/ATR, some punters will jump on it and the price shortens. Whether what is said is true or not, and whether the information has already been allowed for in its price or not. So a price taken may well be bigger than SP, doesn’t mean it is "value".
Tom Segal and Hugh Taylor only have to tip a horse and the price is slashed, they don’t get it right every time. Good though they are, it’s only one man’s opinion.
On the other hand, if a punter backs a horse which subsequently has negeative stuff written/said about it, it is likely to drift. Whether the information has been allowed for in the original prices or not. The punter may still get a "value" price even if it drifts, just not as big value.
There are also other influences. Most punters don’t like backing conditionals or a journeyman jockey. These horses often go out in the betting even if it was a value price in the first place. The opposite often happens with those ridden by top jockeys.
Also, SP’s are working to a much bigger over-round, so beating SP by a small amount is not good enough.
Value Is EverythingGinge,answer this simple question please- Who got the ‘value’ on
Sir des Champs
for the Jewson. Those with the Foresight to recognise the talent within this horse and who took 12/1 months in advance or those who took the 3/1 on the day?
Then answer this one- Who got the value? Those onFirst Lieutenant
for the RSA at 20/1 months in advance or those who backed
Sir des Champs
at 3/1 on the day for the Jewson? Think about it?
Anyone who gets a price bigger than the SP Win,Lose or Draw has got the value
,you just feel a damn sight better when your 16/1 winner returns at 13/2!
No it isn’t.
If a punter takes a pricesignificantly
better than SP he/she has
probably
got value, true. But it is not good enough just to "get a price bigger than SP" to get "value". Price could be shortened up by the slightest thing these days. If a trainer/jockey/owner says something positive about a horse in the Racing Post/Plus/RUK/ATR, some punters will jump on it and the price shortens. Whether what is said is true or not, and whether the information has already been allowed for in its price or not. So a price taken may well be bigger than SP, doesn’t mean it is "value".
Ginge,the more you go on about your obsession with ‘Value’ the more you discredit yourself! Your opinion of value being anything from 33/1-1/3 is based on one thing and one thing only,
Your Opinion
,nobody elses just yours.Like I have stated many times before the only obvious value on any product is if you are getting something at a reduced price or several products for the price of one,its simple Maths! In Horseracing if you get 5/1 about a 5/2 chance you have got the ‘Value’ as you have got something that will reward you more than the price on the tin (SP),irrelevant of whether it wins or not.You can harp on all day
about why you see a 1/3 shot as value but I wont agree with you! The biggest joke of the lot is when you go on about backing 5 horses in a race,you have snaffled all the best prices and you split your stakes accordingly……….Then surprise surprise only one horse wins,it may win at odds of 7/1 but when you add all your stakes up its actually showed a profit of 1/2.Where’s theValue
in that then eh?
Me "discredit myself?
Of course value is "opinion", with any individual bet value is in the eye of the beholder. As I said a punter needs tobelieve
any 1/3 shot has a better than 75% chance of winning for it to be "value". The word "believe" is all important. If he/she does not
believe
the 1/3 shot has a better than a 75% chance, then there’d be no point in backing it, would there? What can be said is if a punter does not make a profit over a long period, then he has not got "value" enough times.
As I said, if a punter beats SP by a considerable margin, he has probably got value. So getting 5/1 about an SP of 5/2 is probably value. And if a punter does that consistently he/she can certainly claim to get value. You were claiming just beating SP (by any margin) is getting "value". What I am saying is getting 5/1 about an SP of 9/2 or 4/1 is not neccessarily value. I’ve been told by bookmakers who limit size and/or refuse bets it is because my
average
bet beats SP by over 20%.
Value Is EverythingThe biggest joke of the lot is when you go on about backing 5 horses in a race,you have snaffled all the best prices and you split your stakes accordingly……….Then surprise surprise only one horse wins,it may win at odds of 7/1 but when you add all your stakes up its actually showed a profit of 1/2.Where’s the
Value
in that then eh?
Sometimes I may take a combined price of 1/2. But that is exactly what it should be thought of as, a 1/2 shot. Not one "7/1" shot or whatever. You seem to think backing more than one horse is in some way cheating.
If a punter backs one horse @ 1/2 he is not cheating, and neither am I if it’s a combined price of 1/2.It works for me Gord. Am sure one day soon your thread will resume profit too. You’ve done well over Cheltenham, got some good value winners. Don’t let it go to your head.
Value Is EverythingWell it comforts me to read that Ginger has backed Grands Crus for this race as I greatly respect his opinion.
8/1 is too big, for me he is a 3/1 chance. Looking at the betting for the opposition we see umpteen horses quoted that should be the same price just to run.
Does anybody think that Synchronised is a 5/1 chance (even if he ran). The track is not suitable and I don’t think he will run.
Sprinter Sacre at 8/1 is another who is very unlikely to run or stay the trip if he did.
Long Run at a best priced 7/2 who has won me thousands seems to have lost a gear and has more chance of winning next years Gold Cup than the KG so for me offers no value although all being well looks an intended runner.
Bobs Worth @ 8/1 must be a doubtful runner as to me he looks unable to show his best gorm going right handed and the way the race is run he may find things happening too quickly for him.
Finians Rainbow @ 10/1 must be considered a doubtful runner and unlikely to stay the distance.
Kauto Star @ 10/1 ……Well if he runs this would be his swansong, but winning a sixth KG shortly before his 13th birthday is a tall order that even the might Arkle would find very difficult.
Burton Port at 12/1 and Riverside Theatre @ 6/1 need to improve 10 pounds to have much chance of winning so no value there.
Al Ferof @ 16/1 looks short of pace, Sizing Europe @ 14/1 is rising 11, does not get the trip and probably won’t run.
The Giant Bolster @ 14/1, can’t see it running here, Captain Chris and Medermit ain’t good enough.
So come on Racing Forum members where does the value lie outside Grands Crus?
Grands Crus is favourite on betfair more or less as there is no price to lay Long Run. I am surprised Sir DC is thought unlikely to run. It’s big money and he would have a good chance.
… You seem to think backing more than one horse is in some way cheating.
If a punter backs one horse @ 1/2 he is not cheating, and neither am I if it’s a combined price of 1/2.Of course Ginge, betting more than one horse in a race is by no means a new concept. From Phil Bull to Alex Bird and from Stewart Simpson, Patrick Veitch to Dave Nevison – they have all gained a profit from doing so.
If a bet returns a profit then that bet makes sense.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Im with you on this but i fear we wont have much of a price left after the weekend. On the other hand it is looking to be a very strong renewal of the KG.
Sizing Europe most impressive today, tho vs a weak field. Probably too old to be trying the KG for the first time.
Sizing Europe most impressive today, tho vs a weak field. Probably too old to be trying the KG for the first time.
I know Edredon Bleu didn’t win it at the first attempt as an 11-y-o… but it might as well have been given the unsuitable ground on his first try. I don’t see any issues with Sizing Europe having a go at 10.
On Grands Crus @ 8/1, but if Sir Des Champs runs I think the win part of my bet will struggle!
Let’s not get carried away.
Grands Crus is not a 2-and-a-half mile horse. The ground in the Paddy Power was heavy, too.
He likes Kempton a lot, and back to his best trip, he has to be feared.
Respect to Al Ferof, but Grands Crus at 12s in places is value-a-go-go.
FLD
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Grands Crus remains a bit of a mystery. He has had two bad runs now without a clear explanation. He seemed to like Cheltenham when he was chasing home Big Bucks so I am not sure that it’s a course or left/right handed issue.
On best form he would be favourite but it’s a strong field and the probability of best form I think is now 50% at best so 10/1 looks about right.
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