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I think that’s wrong, He Didnt Like Ground (coffee?)
The Gold Cup was quite slowly-run and frustratingly isn’t a piece of form you can put much faith in. Al Boum Photo was given one of the rides of the season and very well placed to win it (IMO winner might not have even been in the first two if truly run), Lostintranslation similarly flattered by the way things panned out.
King Georges and Kauto Star Novices in recent years have shown that Kempton can be a deceptively stiff test. I wouldn’t even say it needs to be well-run for Santini to go close – he just needs to be at his peak and match the Gold Cup effort under a proactive ride. He’s 9/2 across the board now, which feels almost right to me. I took 7.4 on the exchange the other day for a small bet, not kidding myself I was getting on a 5/2 shot but believing I was nicking a point or two.
I just hope we get a conclusive answer from the race with no soft unseats or other nonsense. Hopefully one of us looks silly by 3.15 and I don’t mind if it’s me.
I was delighted when I got the 40’s for Real Steel a few months back, but I don’t think there were any excuses at Ascot, and I wouldn’t be interested in betting him today, if I had another go at it.
The limitations of Frodon were fully exposed at Aintree, and I don’t buy the fences being omitted as a real excuse, as he got out jumped that day by Native River anyway. He’s only a small Antepost like Real Steel, but for all I’m not that keen, I’m stupidly going to have a few quid more on, as I’d kick myself if he did it, as unlikely as that looks after Aintree.
If I was starting fresh, I’d be with Santini and Waiting Patiently.
I’ve never been a big fan of Santini, but I’ve been well wrong about him. I think that the speed track element of The King George is a bit overplayed, and it’s always a fair old stamina test. For a trainer who increasingly wraps them up, to supplement him here, I just think that’s a big hint on it’s own, and I think he’ll go close.
I’ve been following Waiting Patiently a few few seasons now, and bet him several times. There’s enough “cons” about him, but enough “pro’s” to think he might be a big price too.
It’s no really a big stakes race for me, so I’ll probably add one of that pair.
Not got a hugely strong opinion on the King George, but I have backed Saint Calvados each way and Cyrname.
Much stronger opinion on the Kauto Star where I think the 9/2 and 3 places about If The Cap Fits is a cracking bet each way to nothing.
Mike I’m on no bandwagon , I watch the races and look for horses strengths and weaknesses , I’ll also look for value and a potential improver/unexposed horse , he,s similar to Bristol de mai , an out and out stayer who was beat miles from home when he tried to win this , even native river a much better horse than santini struggled and ran on to be placed after the race was won , he,ll be getting niggled and jostled way to early and they.ll kick away from him when the proper race starts , he hasn’t got tactical speed
HDLG the bandwagon I was referring to was regarding his Gold Cup claims. He is not my pick for this race, this is a Xmas period run round to maintain fitness and not really his track.
As far as I am concerned what he does today has no bearing on his Cheltenham Gold Cup chances and he will do better there. If he managed to win today, it would be a bonus.
I think Henderson has already said that the owners were sporting in running Santini here so he can use that if things go badly wrong. I’d love him to win as he’s a favourite of mine but still maintain Cheltenham is where he’ll have everything in his favour.
btw if you are with Skybet club you can get Epatante at evens in her race same with betwayBlackbeard to conquer the World
Clan Des a Obeaux and Epetante both to win at 7/2 with Skybet. Xmas has come early. Fully expect both to win easily.
KG is a really interesting race… question marks about all (though Clan’s only ? is the hard Betfair…mind you he was probably fit enough not for it to affect it too much.
I’ve had my free Paddy fiver on Black Op each way for interest. Good pilot on top and a smaller field may help.
WD VtC and anyone else on. An exhibition round of jumping and a perfect ride. Just fantastic to watch
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