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So you can use Ollie Magern as a yardstick but the handicapper cannot use L’Ami? Looking at the 2 horses records over the last 2 years I know which one I think is more reliable.
What figure do you think Ollie Magern ran to when he won the 2005/6 Charlie Hall? What figure do you think he ran to in the betfair chase?
(Edited by davidjohnson at 1:49 pm on Nov. 29, 2006)
Not at all, its up to you, me and the handicapper to interpret the running of that race whichever way we choose. I would put holes in the form of the race based on the proximity of OM, he has not run a decent race in a year, I’m not talking a beating of 10 or 15 lengths, I’m talking a beating of over 30L in each race.
If you think L’Ami ran his race, thats your opinion and thats why you choose to think KS is pegasus. Until he reproduces that form in a championship race, where I am sure the likes of KK and WoA will compete against him will I believe the hype.
My original point about KS was more to do with his ability to jump under pressure and at speed. I don’t think he is very clever jumping at speed, as the Queen Mother displayed last season.
JohnJ.
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jjd
Even if you ignore form handicapping altogether and judge the race purely on speed figures, it was still a terrific performance!
Beef or Salmon ran a 143 (t/s), a figure only bettered twice in his career.
L’Ami ran a 142, his third best figure ever.
Ollie Magern ran a 141, a figure he has managed to beat only 4 times.
Kauto Star not only beat them all 17l+, he did it very easily.<br>Credit where credit’s due, surely?
(Edited by reet hard at 2:00 pm on Nov. 29, 2006)
RH,
I agree, it was impressive. Though to come up with statements like best staying chaser in 20 years and will stuff WoA and KK come gold cup time is ridiculous….
JohnJ.
Certainly this horse is the centre of great debate. I don’t think that there’s any doubting his ability and in the two races this season he has been extremely impressive, whether the other horses ran their races or not. The discussion though is leading us back to the staying division – which is probably where he will prove his Championship class. On Saturday he will be up against the Novice Champion over HIS preferred distance. Because of this, I can’t see that KS is a 1/2 shot (although since my original posting I see he’s come in to 4/6) If you look at the records of the Arkle winners over the past few years, it’s fair to say that it’s one of the strongest races for future Champions – Well Chief, Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop, Contraband (! – although WoA was well behind)
Another thought – if Monet’s Garden was running on Saturday who would people prefer to be with? MG or KS?
Without a doubt Kauto Star. Like Voy Por Ustedes, Monet’s Garden has stones rather than pounds to find with Kauto Star.
Okay, so people are inclined to think he is the real deal rather than a hype horse then. I was extremely impressed with Kauto Star last time, BUT, that is one race he has won and against several horses that very unreliable. The RPR given is exceptional, but the chief ratings compiler does not have an easy job and I know it is very easy to get carried away and be a little overgenerous when a horse I like or think has unlimited potential wins. KS has to win again over 3m in top company before I will say "hell that is one unstoppable machine". If i backed it I would always be concerned about it hitting a fence too as he won’t get away with making many mistakes.
Without a doubt Kauto Star. Like Voy Por Ustedes, Monet’s Garden has stones rather than pounds to find with Kauto Star.
Not at 2 mile form though!!
that is one race he has won and against several horses that very unreliable.
l’ami is pretty steady.
Apart from BOS finding the pace hotter than usual (expected) to my eyes, he ran as well as you could expect. Certainly didnt jump like a hippo and didnt seem moody
You’re right, he only has around 1 stone to find at 2m form.
Which is not that much when put in the context that his main rival is just coming out of novice company and there is likely to be plenty of improvement.
Look at the improvement Well Chief found from a novice to his second season chasing…found far in excess of a stone.<br>
Quote: from Aragorn on 9:50 am on Nov. 29, 2006[br]I can’t see how you think Azertyuiop is a better horse than KS? Nicholls certainly doesn’t seem to think so and to be honest neither do I.. MF was a great and so was best mate… Azertyuiop won the CC when MF ended up on his backside and well chief wasn’t there.. That was a poor CC relatively speaking. Admittedly KS hasn’t won at Cheltenham but I think you’d be daft to oppose him when it’s very obvious that he’s a special horse. The ratings guys i’m sure would agree that you don’t need to win a GC to put in a special performance. If KS wins the Tingle Creek, the KG and GC we’ll be talking about one of the greats… Looks like foreman won’t run and whilst I don’t expect him to win by more than 5 lengths I think he’ll be too strong for VPU.<br>
Don’t give a monkeys what Nicholls says even though he trained both horses! Azerty was a far better jumper at speed than KS. Despite what you think, I do believe Azerty would have beaten Moscow no matter if Moscow had have stood up, MF was too keen that day and was giving Barry Geraghty a terrible time.
MF in his prime would have destroyed KS over two miles, I have no doubt about that, and I have no doubt that Azerty in his prime would have beaten KS over two miles also.
JohnJ
Correct Aidan
But I don’t subscribe to the fact that Kauto Star’s improvement this year has come because of a step up in trip. I see no reason for him not to be as good back at 2m.
But I don’t subscribe to the fact that Kauto Star’s improvement this year has come because of a step up in trip
Unlike his trainer and jockey then…
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