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Right handed track…….I think you will find that Chetenham is left handed and if you investigate further you will find he won a race there called the Cheltenham Gold Cup and finished second in it the year after.
Exactly the sort of patronising post I’ve come to expect from FoF.
If Denman were under different stewardship maybe he would have had the chance to be more versatile – if he was trained by (example) Alan King do you seriously thing he would head for the Lexus rather than the KG? Or skip the Betfair? Not the horses fault, key point – his trainer has his own agenda to win as many races as possible. He has raced KS once, and beaten him well.
Surely nobody can argue KS seems to be the apple of Nicholls / Walsh eyes? Its a testament to the professionalism of Team Dicheat that Denman was prepared superbly to win the Gold Cup – in my opinion, hand on heart, Nicholls would have preferred a KS win.
I was chuffed to bits Kauto won on Boxing Day, and really hope he gets to take on a fully fit Denman in the Gold Cup on proper good ground. He’s still the number one to my mind.
I don’t think he’s been away, just going the wrong way round – that’s seven consecutive Grade 1 chase wins on right-handed tracks, the last six by a wide margin every time.
Back of the net, Alan. Whatever happens at Cheltenham, I’d have Kauto Star down as close to unopposable if connections decided to aim him at the Punchestown Festival subsequently, for that very reason.
Nobody has said he’s headed over there yet, to the best of my knowledge; however, if Nicholls is either a) still in with a squeak of winning the Irish trainers’ championship come late April, or b) reluctant to commit the gelding to conceding tons of weight all round in the erstwhile Whitbread, or c) both, a tilt at the 3m champion race at that Festival wouldn’t require the greatest leap of imagination ever.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Well, I now think I’ve solved the KS conundrum. Here goes…..
Unbeatable going right-handed. Beatable, but still very willing, going to the left. He used to be virtually unbeatable going in both directions, but as he’s got older, he’s started to embrace the right….
Is this the wrong thread?
I don’t think he’s been away, just going the wrong way round – that’s seven consecutive Grade 1 chase wins on right-handed tracks, the last six by a wide margin every time.
Back of the net, Alan. Whatever happens at Cheltenham, I’d have Kauto Star down as close to unopposable if connections decided to aim him at the Punchestown Festival subsequently, for that very reason.
Nobody has said he’s headed over there yet, to the best of my knowledge; however, if Nicholls is either a) still in with a squeak of winning the Irish trainers’ championship come late April, or b) reluctant to commit the gelding to conceding tons of weight all round in the erstwhile Whitbread, or c) both, a tilt at the 3m champion race at that Festival wouldn’t require the greatest leap of imagination ever.
gc
Come on Jeremy! he would be unopossable anywhere if he came out of the Gold Cup in good form and Denman wasn’t around. I doubt very mucvh if he would have run any better anywhere than he did at Aintree after a gruesome Gold CUp he obviosly wasn’t at his best in.
And this Back of the net thing are you 2 serious?. It is purely coincidental the horse has won these races on right handed tracks IMO.
Kauto trotted up at Aintree first time he went there, he won the Gold Cup at Cheltenham won the Betfair at Haydock on the bit by 17 lengths from Beef or Salmon.
His defeats at Cheltenham and Aintree were surely down to him being off colour and nothing to do with him getting dizzy or whatever going the wrong way?
He was beaten at Haydock by Monet Garden first time out giving away weight. Then ED ran him to 1/2 lenth there 4 weeks ahead of his main target the King George. Was it down to Sam’s ride?, a few would blame him but’ I would suspect PN would leave a fair bit to work on to ensure he was 100% for the big one at Kempton.
All trainers have main targets in mind for horses and they don’t have them fully wound up for every race. That is something that you surely must agree with……….Katchit was a classic example last season when trained to the minute for one specific race.
If what you are saying is that if Kempton was a left handed track he would have been less impressive or got beat then I think you have lost the plot entirely.
I think you are simplifying the situation by counting numbers and not looking at the whole picture.
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I’m with Fists on this one, and suggest that KS’s stats for right-handed courses are grossly misleading.
Take a look at his approach to the last fence in the KG, and you will see him running markedly left to correct his stride pattern, something he has done at so many of his fences in the past, and hardly the hallmark of a horse favoured by jumping right-handed.If six consecutive Grade 1 wins at distances ranging from 2M to 3M with a minimum winning distance of seven lengths is misleading, we might as well all throw away our form books.
All his defeats in top company have come on l-h tracks, as have the narrow margin wins over Exotic Dancer at Haydock and L’Ami at Newbury.
Those aren’t guesses about his condition, or the trainers intentions – they’re simple facts. Whether you take them into account or ignore them is entirely up to the individual.
I’m with AP on this one. The horse seems to be significantly better going right handed.
If I owned him, I’m not sure I would even bother running him in the Gold Cup if an in-form Denman turned up.
If six consecutive Grade 1 wins at distances ranging from 2M to 3M with a minimum winning distance of seven lengths is misleading, we might as well all throw away our form books.
All his defeats in top company have come on l-h tracks, as have the narrow margin wins over Exotic Dancer at Haydock and L’Ami at Newbury.
Those aren’t guesses about his condition, or the trainers intentions – they’re simple facts. Whether you take them into account or ignore them is entirely up to the individual.
Let’s not throw away the form book lets have a look at it AP……….maybe we can all learn something from it.
I think you can do virtually anything you like with it to try and prove a point but you are probably still going to be off the mark unless you do look at the bigger picture.
Let’s take the Aintree race where Kauto failed by 1/1/2 lenths to give Monet Garden 14lbs of a left handed track.
Then take the Ascot race where at level weights he beat him 8 lengths going the other way’
At a pound for a length it would appera he put up a 5 1/2 length better perfomance on a left handed track than he did on a right handed track.
Add to that the fact hat Monet Graden was probably much fitter than Kauto Star that day and you get an even worse picture..
Looking at that one might even say he is a much better horse going left than he is right.
Of course you could find other form that blows that out the water.
Too easy to say the form book indicates this and that and if you don’t take other things into consideration, you would be as well throwing it in the bin.
Personally I think Kauto is better going in a straight line he gets there faster
Come on Jeremy! he would be unopossable anywhere if he came out of the Gold Cup in good form and Denman wasn’t around. I doubt very mucvh if he would have run any better anywhere than he did at Aintree after a gruesome Gold CUp he obviosly wasn’t at his best in.
And this Back of the net thing are you 2 serious?. It is purely coincidental the horse has won these races on right handed tracks IMO.
18 months ago one wouldn’t have given such a hypothesis a second thought, granted, but the impressive nature of more or less all of his runs clockwise since then, compared to a more indifferent portfolio anticlockwise, invites – and it is no more than invites, before you get too excited again – the suggestion that going one way round suits him better nowadays than was the case heretofore.
Reet’s observation’s on Kauto Star’s stride pattern approaching fences offers a seductive enough counterargument, though; so if any belief – mistaken or otherwise – that Cheltenham is no longer the “right way round” for the gelding in spite of that observation sees him go off, say, half a point larger in the Gold Cup than he ought to, then who are you, I or anyone else to complain when we fill our boots next time he wins left-handed?
Accordingly, and the point I was making in the first place, the triumvirate of;
– not having to concede stones of weight all round compared to a handicap,
– possibly facing just a smattering of Ireland’s Graded chasers (most of whom, where they have met at all, he would appear to have the wood on), rather than some of his rivals from home who have run him close or beaten him in recent times, and
– being sent what may or may not be the “right way round” (see above),…would to my mind have him sent off at even more prohibitive odds for the Punchestown race than, say, the Totesport Bowl, Bet365 Gold Cup, or any other end of season target one could care to mention. Do you see?
All trainers have main targets in mind for horses and they don’t have them fully wound up for every race. That is something that you surely must agree with……….Katchit was a classic example last season when trained to the minute for one specific race.
Logically that’s the case, Mr Fists (Snap Tie’s training to the minute for the Kempton race in October, to see if his Champion Hurdle credentials were in any way realistic, being the first and most transparent example so far this season, to my mind); and the fact that a Betfair Chase – King George double wouldn’t have secured Clive Smith the first two legs of the Betfair Million this year, as it did in 2006-7, adds further credence to any suggestion it wasn’t necessarily a 100% ready Kauto Star that lined up at Haydock last month.
You just have to decide for yourself, however, whether that detail (or “fact”, if you’re that convinced), and / or Sam Thomas’ ride, could between them entirely explain away the below-par performance.
If what you are saying is that if Kempton was a left handed track he would have been less impressive or got beat then I think you have lost the plot entirely.
It’s just as well I wasn’t, then. I trust the above clarifies matters.
I think you are simplifying the situation by counting numbers and not looking at the whole picture.
I don’t think I’d get half the trend analysis commissions I do if I did that, Mr Fists! Trends are helpful, but mustn’t be used without some substance with which to back them up.
I tried in vain a few weeks ago to convince a mug punter friend that Numide can act left-handed; but he was trenchant in his belief that the gelding’s French Flat and UK novices’ hurdle wins all having been gained going clockwise, plus his below-par run at the Festival last March (wantonly ignoring the significance of a crucial jumping error), offered compelling evidence to look elsewhere for the winner of the Greatwood. Silly boy. You know the rest.
HTH,
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Think too much emphasis is put on which way round they run with certain horses. Would sooner have a crack at the Gold Cup than have the horse stood in his stable whether an in form Denman was running or not, that’s something you wouldn’t know till after the Gold Cup anyway.
Horses surely are for racing not standing in their stablesI’m not saying he should stand in his stable. Run him at Ascot and then win at Punchestown.
If I owned him, I’m not sure I would even bother running him in the Gold Cup if an in-form Denman turned up.
You’ve got to be kidding, right?
Denman was brilliant in the last Gold Cup and a very worthy champion. However, it appears obvious to me that Kauto Star wasn’t travelling or jumping as well as he usually does (even on the first circuit). That is not meant to be an excuse for Kauto losing as he lost to the best horse on the day but it does leave questions to be answered imo.
Let us add to the above Denman’s diddy ticker. He is reportedly better now which is great but until we see him back on the track we simply won’t know how good he is.
If Kauto does pull off the impossible and beat Denman in March I’m sure it will spark some interesting debates on here. The Kauto diehards will claim the real Kauto finally turned up and the Denman diehards will claim Denman wasn’t as good as the previous year. Ahh, the joys of racing!
For me, Denman is still the favourite for the GC and rightly so. He’s the champ and a monster at the extended 3m2f, course and conditions. It is all in the Tank’s favour but to suggest Kauto shouldn’t run there is crazy imo. Kauto is an exceptional horse and deserves his shot at regaining the GC.
Why would you want to swerve the Festival with him though, TDK?
If he is better going right-handed (and I think a reasonable case has been made to support this theory), it’s not like he doesn’t act on a left-handed track, and he would still be better than practically every other staying-chaser in training bar Denman, going that way round.
I just don’t see the point in not running him at Cheltenham, when he is still more than likely capable of the level of form required to win a Gold Cup – left-handed or not.
He doesn’t need a right-handed track – he’s probably just a little bit better over one.
No – I’m not kidding
I don’t think Chelthenham is his track and I don’t really think 3m2f is his trip. He won a falsely run renewal of the race 2 years ago and would need it to be a similarly dodgy contest to win it again.
He will probably run creditably in the race again this year and I concede that it is in the interests of the sport that he takes part. However, if you were his owner and your priority was to win races and preserve his reputation, I don’t think you would go anywhere near the Gold Cup.
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