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Faugheen – Evens.
Melon – 3/1
Defi De Seuil – 6/1
Mick Jazz – 7/1
Jezki – 16/1Buveur Dair is enetered but unlikely to turn up.
Big questions for Faugheen to answer here. This is a better field than the Xmas Hurdle and if he wins this on the bridle then we can draw a line through his last run although that is a big IF.
We can connect form lines with UK here through Melon. Melon is an improving horse who likes a good gallop. He has proven himself to be on a similar level to The New One and Tent in the International Hurdle. We also know that they are maybe a half a stone behind Buveur Dair. Faugheen will need to be beating Melon by at least 7 or 8 to prove he is capable of winning in March.
Interesting to see how Defi gets on after his disappointing seasonal debut
Out of all of the questions Ruby has been asked about the Mullins horses, the only definitive one he answered was when he said Faugheen was the one horse who he was most looking forward to riding again.
Fingers crossed he just had an off day (as it sounds like they have run every test imaginable after which has turned up nothing to explain the run) and normal service resumes again on Saturday – I still think his injuries robbed us of having another triple Champion Hurdler and if he does make it to the Festival somewhere near his best, he wins.
Faugheen is worryingly big at 6/4 for this. Melon is right behind him at 7/4.
Buveur D’air isn’t running and Melon’s form is miles behind that of Faugheen. Several here look doubtful to turn up. eg Yorkhill and Samcro, with the latter’s price varying wildly.
Jezki looks past his best and that leaves Defi Du Seuil, who flopped last time, as the next in betting generally.
In a way you would have preferred to see a reason for Faugheen pulling up last time. With no reason coming forth, you wonder if something hidden may be ailing him. With Melon behind the New One and My Tent Or Yours last time, you could hardly be confident he is a likely Champion Hurdler this year. That makes him poorer value than Faugheen at just a quarter of a point bigger.
For me the Philip Hobbs form has tailed off a bit again after a mini revival, (1/15) the past fortnight and Rock The Kasbah ran the mother of all stinkers when he was one of the leading lights last time.
It’s either trust Faugheen at what could look a gift price of 6/4 in the aftermath, or just sit the race out?
Och, go on, I can’t resist 6/4 and if he’s not back my Buveur D’air bet in the Champion Hurdle itself will look nigh on nailed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I love Faugheen but a small bet on Bapaume will probably have to do.
Generally dislike backing former juveniles in these races the year after, but this could cut up and he will be staying on at the finish, when the likes a Melon might not be….as for Faugheen, who knows!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jackh I hate backing 5 year olds too but Mullins has a great record of bringing them through better than others. Footpad, let’s dance, apples, jade all developed remarkably better than Ivanovich Gorbachev for example. Bapaume impressed me at leopardstown the last day
TWM, yeah agreed. watched race back again, he travelled the best of them all to 1 or 2 out…a drop back in trip on the ground will suit, whether a whole mile is necessary, the way he travels and hurdles hopefully it wont be too much of an issue.
The main question mark is about if hes good enough, but the same couldve been said for Mick Jazz last time, really the 2milers are poor, and if Melon pulls how he does this time around again, the race could be there for the taking. Note i am not mentioning Faugheen as he really could go either way (or not even go).
I presume the ultimate question is how will he turn the tables with Defi Du Seuil? DDS was awful on reappearance but i guess stable form was also out the window!
Going to hope Bapaume is the more progressive (clutching/guessing)!Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Melons form in the International Hurdle is a positive, I think. The New One is still a very good horse and Melon had to concede 6 lbs to the winner and only lost by 2 and a half; and he was pulling like a mad man early on, suggesting the pace may have been too slow for him. While I don’t think he is at the Faugheen/Buveur Dair level, he is still improving and I fancy him for a place in a strongly run race at Cheltenham and if the Machine doesn’t turn up I think he’ll win this race.
im with Steve here. If they “find nothing” then its of greater concern. Quite simply the horse may have had enough. Hes been a fantastic horse to watch but easy to forget hes now 10
A no bet race
I know strongly run races are associated with the festival, but i do wonder, whos going to make it such a strongly run race this year. To me its likely to evolve around if Faugheen makes it for the pace?
Maybe im missing one off the top of my head, but front runners wouldnt be in abundance.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I would be worried about Melon settling well enough in a small field with no pace – he did far too much at Cheltenham mid race which he paid for at the business end – unless the bookies have got wind of something Faugheen’s price is huge now.
I think it is rather sad that he is almost being written off without being given the benefit of the doubt after one bad race in which he was beaten for only the second time in 15 career starts – his comeback (whether you rate the collateral form good or not) was not that of a horse that has had enough of racing, even before his injury problems he didn’t have many miles on the clock.
For me the Champion Hurdle desperately needs Faugheen to be there on or somewhere around his best form as it could very well be the race of the the Festival if him and BVD are both ready to roll.
Coral go 7/4 Faugheen. That seems mildly alarming to me.
Defi Du Seuil looks way short to me at 7/2 now. He’s got plenty to prove himself really, even if I did nominate him as each-way value for the Champion Hurdle at 20/1. I’ll be happy to see him run well here but with some firms going 3/1 it’s almost feasible he could be the same odds as Faugheen the way things are going.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You have to go back the best part of 4 yrs to his Neptune win to find the last time he was around that price in a race
I think that 12’s is a fair each way price for Mick Jazz, with 3 places available. Would certainly fall into the “small bet” category, so might as well make it a win bet if I’m having a go at all.
The ATR preview person goes for Supasundae (25/1) with Mick Jazz (14/1) the other one to watch in the race.
That seems pretty gung ho tipping.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Generally 11/10 Faugheen now, so 2/1 isn’t a price I would be laying much to.
Defi Du Seuil is double the odds he was a few days ago, out to 7/1 and pretty friendless.
Melon is out a full point to 11/4 from 7/4 when he was challenging for favourite. That has to be a concern.
I notice that William Hill have just gone 8/11 Faugheen and it always amazes me that people renege on 7/4 and then back at skinnier odds just because other people have started putting money on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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