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My book translates ratings into prices and highlights selections that are bigger prices than my book forecast, which in turn makes it ‘value’ in my eyes and determines what price I play at and what price I leave!
My book is 100% correct to MY ratings, which obviously are not 100% correct otherwise I would win every race – if it were 100% accurate to the bookies prices then there would be very little point in doing a book!!<br>
Ali
Confucious he say, if one man calls you a fool ignore him, if five men call you a fool……….
escorial just one question<br>you fancy a horse and its forecast at 4/1 (ridden by dettori)<br>now you believe this horse is a maximum bet or a real good thing to win<br>on your way to ladbrokes in plenty of time before the off you enter the shop and look at the results low and behold dettori has just ridden 7 out of 7 winners good for him you think<br>a few minutes pass and the 1st show comes up and your good thing is 1/3 do you still back it as its a good thing or not
Does anyone else start to lose the will to live half way through a Escorail monologue ?
It’s getting a bit personal now and lowering the helpfulness of this thread. Maybe only post if you have something constuctive to post?
Well said DL much of the back biting here is wide of the mark. The maths is simple if you back at consistentley greater odds than the true price you win if you don’t you lose. The method by which you achieve this is a matter for personal choice if Esc likes to look for the winner and this works for him then good luck to him. If someone else prefers to price up the event and back anything at a bigger price than they make it then GL to them too. Personally I fall somewhere between the two camps and that works for me.
Recently however I started a little experimental betting bank starting with a free 17.50 first bet offer thingy I decided to bet at 25% of my bank. The criteria for my selections is they must be priced between 1/2 and 1/20 and that is it.No horse racing though they are all sports bets and as of last weekend my bank stood at £280. Then this week sadly I managed to back for the first time ever a 1/12 loser !!! so bank now back to £210 but still pretty good from a 17.50 start in around 2 months. Maybe it has just been luck maybe all these heavy odds on bets are value maybe something else still I continue for now. Generally I bet at around 2/1 to 10/1 so this has been an interesting experiment.
I did once also analyse SP’s over 3 national hunt seasons 1990-1993 I think but not 100% sure and basically the rule was the bigger the price the more you lost backing every runner to level stakes and in fact if you backed simply all odds on runners you made a profit actually quite a healthy one if you avoided novice chases.So more food for thought there.
JJimps,
If you are getting a high strike rate on your sports bets, then try using "rolling doubles".
Regards – Matron<br>:cool:
Keith, my point is a simple one, much like your postings. Without every piece of information being factored into a book then how can you begin to seek out value. If you have the answer please post it, thats what i have been asking. This is just the view that i have taken, i’m not saying i am correct, i did not know the first thing about making a book until i read this thread so who am i to say what is right and what is wrong!!!
escorial<br>sorry mate if you are taking 1/3 (because of bookmakers shortening the odds due to liabilities)about a 4/1 shot (alright it might not be a true 4/1 shot but anyone would agree that it should be odds against)then i would say that you are only fooling yourself if you think you can win at this game LONGTERM<br>its all very well stating your winning tips on here in black and white but any one can pick a few winners in the short term (a bloke in a bookies i go to had 10 winning forecasts out of the 1st 29 races today it dosent make him a winner as he always backs 1×2 in every race)<br>what your saying is that if the horse was 1/500 you would still back it because you believed it was a good thing (or is there a cut off point…have i missed something) surely anyone who knows anything would agree that backing a horse at 1/500 would be plain crazy (especially as the betting forecast was 4/1 )<br>i await you comments on the above with baited breath<br>sorry if i am coming across as arguementive i dont mean to be and am only seeking thoughts ideals reasoning etc etc
I have done various doubles and accas MAtron so far my strike rate has been pretty astounding really but more by luck than judgement I think
Gosh, I wish my books were 100% accurate.
Value for me is a bit of a holy grail. It’s an approach to gambling that I believe in. But for many years I tootled along successfully beating the bookies pretty much doing as Escorial is doing. I guess the mordin/coton books put me onto value and for a while I actually went backwards hopeless as I was at finding it, but the last few seasons it’s really improved my betting – when I win I win bigger, and I’ve minimised my losses.
But a 100% accurately priced race – I wish.
The two key things in my favour when pricing races are the bookies’ over-round and the fact I don’t actually have to lay any horse we don’t want to.
I view the over-round as my margin of error. I usually price the race to 100%, or a bit less if feeling cautious – (daylight I was interested that you price to 90% – that’s very cautious). In a handicap where the bookies have gone 130% plus, I can be fairly confident that if my horse is at much longer odds with the bookies than in my book, that I am getting value.
I can also oppose horses in my book in a way that bookies can’t. Take Beau – he’s always priced up competitively in these top-class handicaps – but as far as I’m concerned unless he gets his ideal conditions he’s a complete no-hoper – if he was generally priced at 8/1 a bookie couldn’t go 25/1 against him, but I can in my book. It’s the same with Pipe horses, or McCoy and so on – the bookies have to be extra tight on them. We don’t have to.
The key difference in approach for me is that I’m not looking for a horse – I’m looking to exploit the difference between my book and the bookies.
Today for example I priced up the 2:20 at Taunton. In the old days Atavistic would have looked a good bet to me – a lot going for it, and I would have backed it. But pricing the race up for myself made me look at it in a different way.
Lordberniebouffant looked one to oppose (I’d gone 8/1, bookies 3/1) but Sir Frosty looked tempting (I’d gone 10/1, Sporting Odds went 33/1). OK, so I’ve chosen a nice, some would say lucky, example as Sir Frosty duly won me a season’s profit, but my point is making a book led me to the bet, and told me to bet fairly big.
<br>That’s my thing with you escorial – I really think you could be winning even more.<br>
point taken escorial but please just answer would you bet at 1/500 on the earlier example….you said that you would back at 1/3 ….have you a cut off price (surely you must and in that way you are using prices to dictate to you a bet)<br>one further point<br>if you are searching through race after race then surely most of your selections will be favourites (otherwise you are very very very clever or the bookies are wrong most of the time)…what is your average price winner
Ali ……. haven’t been avoiding your question, but I have had so much work to get done today that I haven’t logged on till now. You asked myself and others who believe in pricing up a race and only betting ‘value’,whether or not we believe our books to be 100% accurate.
No Way Mate !!!!!  Nobody’s perfect :(
However I know that due to the methods I employ, the  shorter the race distance, the more accurate I am likely to be. I also know that I am better with certain race types. This doesn’t really matter as I am more than happy to pass whole meetings if I have to. I haven’t had a single bet this week, even though I’ve been spending 10hrs+/day studying the a/w. Maybe I need to be taken off to the funny farm !!!
In all seriousness when there is a marked difference between the price in my book and the actual prices on offer I will have a bet …….. as long as the horse is fit in the paddock. As a guide I use the Kelly Criterion to decide how much I should be putting on.
All the best and I hope this post has helped to answer your question. :cool:
That 33/1 happened to touch 100/1 with Hills Esc ;)
Sirspread, i think the example you ahve used it unlikely – a 4/1 shot going 1/3 because Dettori has ridden the first 7 winners. A similar thing happened with Fujiyama Quest but how often does a jockey ride the first 6 (or even 7) winners? Also, Esc actually said that he puts his money on early doors so could do nothing if Dettori rode the first 7 winners as his bet would be placed.
Your other question though, i’m interested to know everyone’s answer – what is YOUR cut off price?
One more thing – why do you have to make your own book to achieve long-term profits?
People have different ways of making money from betting. I want to know what’s wrong with studying the old form book and why we should all be creating book’s.
Cheers, Rob.
Ali asked earlier about compiling a book and what is taken into consideration.Having just seen the overnight decs for Wincanton tomorrow here is my idea of the betting for the John Bull.<br> Looks Like Trouble 6/4<br>Whitenzo 5/1<br>Bellator 7/2<br>Celibate 14/1<br>Upgrade 7/2
The assumptions I used were as follows<br>1)The final sp percentage will be somewhere between 106&112%<br>2)Looks Like Trouble is supposedly between 80&85% fit.The distance is short of his best.Noel Chance wont want to see the horse disgraced.In my opinion he could run well tomorrow but I just couldn’t have him for the Gold Cup.<br>3)Bellator & Upgrade are hard to seperate.Bellator will possibly refuse but ha some ood form.<br>4)Celibate -Couldn’t rule him out entirely.
Having checked the RP online the differences are:<br>Looks Like Trouble RP 4/6 Luke 6/4<br>Whitenzo RP 9/2 Luke 5/1 <br>Bellator/Upgrade RP 13/2 Luke 7/2<br>Celibate RP 10/1 Luke 14/1<br>For me the logical thing to do would be go to a betting exchange and try lay LLT at 8/11.Bellator looks big at 13/2 IF he jumps off.
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