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I wouldn’t trust the form. Trip and ground combination was too sharp for Finian’s Oscar as predicted. Brain Power and North Hill Harvey took each other on and went a little too quick (Capitaine was unable to lead), not sure why David Mullins got involved as Henderson wanted Brain Power held up. As a consequence, neither improved on their previous Chase form. They may another time as might FO up in trip. Sceau Royal probably improved the standard 10 (pounds/lengths) on his Hurdle form. He looked as impressive as he did in a couple of Hurdles early last season. However, he petered out last term and wouldn’t be a horse you’d look at and say will make a miles better Chaser than Hurdler. I’m not convinced he’ll better this effort or how often he’ll repeat it.
Said very early on that Finians was being outpaced. Clearly, step him up in trip. JLT winner for me.
I’m not convinced it was all about pace. He just wasn’t 100%. A JLT winner would have performed better than he did and plenty of Tizzard’s arent running to form – White Moon was tailed off yesterday.
FO was never in the race. Robbie Power rarely helped the horse into the fences and did a similar thing on Fox Norton…just seemed to freeze when within 15 yards of a fence. Jacob, on the other hand, has a 38% strike rate over those fences.However, the winner has done it well off a genuine pace and given a good ride.
Tizzard needs to find a confidence booster for his star novice chaser now.
Watched it again and I think I was a bit hasty in assuming Sceau Royal had it fall in his lap somewhat. It didn’t look quite so fast on rewatching and maybe the dire performance of Finian’s Oscar lent a sense of illusion to it.
Sceau Royal might simply be fulfilling his promise now. He’s a very confident fencer although a touch stiff-backed. He drags some birch with him at almost every fence but if it’s costing him in energy, there’s little sign of it.
Jacob suits him very well and is himself growing in confidence along with his rising profile. He reminds me of Russell sometimes in the way he sits quiet and still although his height doesn’t make him look quite so compact as the Irishman.
I’ll hold off on an Arkle bet until I see Petit Mouchoir again (little news of him lately). But there will be few horses better suited to the race than Sceau Royal. His top four RPRs are on good to soft which he’s highly likely to get; he’s won twice at Cheltenham albeit not over fences yet and perhaps most importantly, he’ll be most suited by the way the race is likely to be run.
I can’t see him being really good enough on the day – similar to when he ran over hurdles, he had some very good performances in the run up to the Triumph and then bombed out and then the next season he had two impressive wins before bombing out in the Fighting Fifth against Irving and was outclassed in the Champion Hurdle.
If all goes to plan he will be looking for a new jockey as I would imagine Jacobs would surely choose to be on the owner’s Footpad instead.
I agree about Daryl Jacob, Joe, I’ve been highly critical of him in the past but he seems to have improved this season. There’s a lot of talk about jockeys on here, one or two seem to be deteriorating, if I had to pick one to stay cool and get the job done repeatedly whatever it entails I’d choose Nico de Boinville.
I can’t see him being really good enough on the day – similar to when he ran over hurdles, he had some very good performances in the run up to the Triumph and then bombed out and then the next season he had two impressive wins before bombing out in the Fighting Fifth against Irving and was outclassed in the Champion Hurdle.
If all goes to plan he will be looking for a new jockey as I would imagine Jacobs would surely choose to be on the owner’s Footpad instead.
If they’re both in form I’d expect Footpad to go for the JLT as he stays further than 2m, Sceau Royal doesn’t.
After the Fighting Fifth, Sceau Royal wasn’t seen for almost 3 months; so wouldn’t take that as his true form. Yes, he was outclassed in the Champion Hurdle, but that was hurdles. Showed today he’s a better chaser.
Value Is EverythingAt the risk of accusations of getting ‘cliquey’, GM, Am with you on Nico. A couple of seasons back I started a thread here – Nico de Boingville – marvelling at the ability of this relative newcomer in getting horses to jump. My perception of him was as a steeplechase jockey and perhaps that’s the way most perceive him because the figures make interesting reading:
His hurdles strike rate is only about half a percent below chasing, in fact had you started with a £1,000 bank in 2010 when he came on the scene and placed bets at 1% of bank total you’d be £11,660 in front and the lowest your bank would have dipped to was £842.90. Over fences he’s running at a slight loss. These figures are at Betfair SP.
He’s a superb combination of horseman and jockey with the former aspect a bit more dominant I think.
Interesting tweet from ex-jock Robbie McNamara (albeit post-race):
“Don’t honestly know how ppl keep getting carried away with Brain Power. He wouldn’t see out the finish of a proper run 2 miles with a pair of binoculars”
Not a terrible race as after having a chat with the old man on course we convinced ourselves that Sceau Royal was worth a covering bet as he was then trading at twice the price of Harvey of whom he was weighted to beat and he looked outstanding in the prelims.
I hear that 3 miles beckons for Finians Oscar and for one I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do as I’ve always felt that’s where we’ll see what he can do. I’m not too sure about doing it round Kempton though.
“Don’t honestly know how ppl keep getting carried away with Brain Power. He wouldn’t see out the finish of a proper run 2 miles with a pair of binoculars”
A good handicapper, but found out everytime he steps up, really dont like the horse as a betting prospect like i had said, would have had everything bar maybe capitaine over him today (although he would have finished better than i had anticipated, so i was partly wrong)
No, not partly wrong ham, you were 100% wrong about Brain Power. No horse running at 1 1/2 mile pace over a distance of 2m will see out the finish. Robbie McNamara hasn’t got a clue.
Value Is EverythingLOL
Firstly
He won his first chase by tanking along up front and hendo was happy to allow that so It does not matter how the race was run today thats just making more excuses for brain power it should have suited, he was getting beat regardless, he had plenty in his favour right handed/trip/track, but yet here you are still making an excuse, when a horse is out of his comfort zone, excuses are fine, he had none. Finians did.Secondly
You really do talk nonsense, if he had won i would have been 100% wrong, but he didnt and wasnt going to. So try that % again….like i said i was not wrong for saying he wont win this, but i was partly wrong for saying he would be unplaced (i was still right on the day though LOL)Its also laughable saying macnamara dosent have a clue. He knows much more than either of us, it was aftertiming, but he wasnt wrong.
I did however say after the race i wouldnt write any of them off and i think the form will prove to be decent, BP is a good horse.
Cooper would have had quite a reception had he been on board those Potts favs today. But it was good old Puppy Power so that’s fine
LOL
Firstly
He won his first chase by tanking along up front and hendo was happy to allow that so It does not matter how the race was run today thats just making more excuses for brain power it should have suited, he was getting beat regardless, he had plenty in his favour right handed/trip/track, but yet here you are still making an excuse, when a horse is out of his comfort zone, excuses are fine, he had none. Finians did.Its also laughable saying macnamara dosent have a clue. He knows much more than either of us, it was aftertiming, but he wasnt wrong.There’s a big difference between going a strong 2 mile pace in a 2 mile race, and going an overly strong 1 1/2 mile pace in a 2m race. Surprised you wouldn’t know that. It’s the same as in a 400 metre human race where a runner does the mid section at 200m pace while expecting to finish well… just doesn’t happen. Mullins and Skelton should hang their heads in shame.
McNamara was a jockey, not a form expert. Speak for yourself, ham; he doesn’t know more than me and a lot of TRFers too.
Value Is EverythingAt a second faster than the TC no question it was a truly run race but most of that pick up on time was in the latter stages according to Simon Rowlands.
TC leader led the Henry VIII leader to the 10th being as much as 10 lengths clear at the 5th. That dropped steadily until the Novice leader took it up 4 out where he was 7 virtual lengths clear of Ar Mad then at the last three fences: 8, 5 and 4 lengths clear.
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