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If they’re both in form I’d expect Footpad to go for the JLT as he stays further than 2m, Sceau Royal doesn’t.
Depends on what else Mullins has for the Arkle & JLT – don’t forget Footpad was 4th in last years Champion Hurdle (2 places ahead of Sceau Royal) and out of the two would represent the owners best chance of winning an Arkle imho.
In the future you could well see him move up in distance but until he shows he needs further over fences why not stick to 2m especially given that debut which to me is still the best round of jumping from a novice this season.
McNamara was a jockey, not a form expert. Speak for yourself, ham; he doesn’t know more than me and a lot of TRFers too.
How do you know that he doesn’t know more than you….?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
not being funny, but how can you say after that race where at least brain power was completely competitive until the last and finian’s oscar was never in it, that brain power is overhyped while finian’s oscar is a cheltenham winner in waiting?
Because Brain power is clearly running in the Arkle. I think there are better novices over that trip than him.
With Finians, he will go up in trip and that will change everything. Quite obviously, he was just outpaced today. Write the race off.
I think what hes meaning is finians was obviously ovet the wrong trip, rather than being found out, whereas brain poower arguably had everything in his favour and still beaten
Indeed. Thanks Ham.
Btw.. fantastic winner. Very impressed with that run from your horse
the pace wasn’t that hot, he just didn’t travel
The pace wasn’t that hot??? They were absolutely flying along!
At a second faster than the TC no question
Personally, I thought both races were very quick in the first mile of both.
The pace wasn’t that hot??? They were absolutely flying along!
Not for the first mile or so, although they finished in a slightly quicker time than Altior last year.
I’m not saying it was slow, just not break neck as implied by Hoiles and others.
At a second faster than the TC no question it was a truly run race but most of that pick up on time was in the latter stages according to Simon Rowlands.
Depends what you mean by “pick up on time”, Joe. Depends what the pace was like in both races at each point in time. Lengths behind the winner doesn’t give the whole picture.
Am just going by what it looked like so could be wrong, but if we split both races in to three equal parts.
Suspect the Tingle Creek was run: Fast, Fast, Slow.
Suspect the Henry VIII was run: Fair, Very Fast, Fairly Fast (with the third part split in two being Fast, Fairly Slow).If I am right then: Because the Tingle Creek was Fast from the outset (and continued fast) the final third was slow. Yet in the Henry VIII the leaders made up ground – from around 11 lengths down at the 5th fence to half a length down at the 9th – at a time when the pace in the Tingle Creek was itsef still fast. ie Leaders in the Henry VIII went faster than is economic energy-wise for both North Hill Harvey and Brain Power who are imo better than their performances suggest.
After early and mid sections being both “fast” suspect Tingle Creek horses were weakening whilst Sceau Royal (after only a fair early section and not getting involved in the worst part of the Henry VIII mid section) was able to finish a lot faster than Poliglote. Therefore only natural the difference in the two races would increase sharply in favour of the Henry VIII in the last third.…But I haven’t seen the sectionals so am just evaluating what I’ve seen without hard evidence.
That said, Sceau Royal still deserves great Credit for a top class performance and I’ve backed him for the Arkle.
Value Is EverythingI was tempted with SR for the Arkle having already backed North Hill Harvey and Petit Mouchoir. The latter needs to overcome his setback with a joint issue and we’re unlikely to see him until February. But he’s drifted into top value territory at 12/1 and if he makes it back for the Irish Arkle I’ll bet him for the festival just before he runs in Ireland.
He’s on the same rating as a hurdler as Brain Power, but had him well behind in the Champion Hurdle, and he’s superior to Sceau Royal and North Hill Harvey. He beat Footpad over hurdles and is rated 3lbs his superior there. His jumping on his debut was scintillating. The form of the race isn’t working out but the vast majority of the field were well beaten by the time Petit Mouchoir jumped the third.
He’s unexposed too and not just as a chaser, having run just 13 times (Sceau Royal’s had 20 runs).
So, I’m holding off and will probably have just one more bet in this, hopefully it will be n Petit Mouchoir again at around 12/1.
I couldn’t have him if the antepost ticket came free through the post. Not exactly bred for the game, although there is Denham Red / Un De Sceaux on the dam’s side.
I have an aversion to anything by Al Namix going over fences. Inconsistent, error prone and don’t progress as they do over hurdles.Al Namix has a better strike rate than Presenting over fences . . .
. . . Seriously, the sample you’re working from is tiny – 114 runs (Presenting: 6,256).
I’ve listened to McNamara on the Pod quite a lot, and its safe to say from a form perspective he isn’t exactly the most knowledgable. He loves picking a fav, and follows the hype.
Great character but wouldn’t necessarily say he knows a lot more about the form of racing.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Finding the Arkle quite hard to work out this year (early days i know)
Petit Mouchoir, Brain Power, Sceau Royal + Footpad have all looked great, but they all have had a tendency to be beaten by a proper top horse when it matters, and beaten well.
Arkle may not have a proper top horse in it this year, but the way both PM and BP race, i suspect neither will be finishing as strongly as some of the others.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Al Namix has a better strike rate than Presenting over fences . . .
. . . Seriously, the sample you’re working from is tiny – 114 runs (Presenting: 6,256).
Baby Mix – 2/10 over fences
Solix – 2/13
Grandouet – 0/7
Saphir Du Rheu – 4/14. Two of those four when very short odds against a total of five rivals. Highly tried, won a mediocre Grade 1 but other top races strewn with errors.Petit Mouchoir beat nothing at Punchestown, subsequent runs from the placed horses have been terrible and Brelade was beaten even further by Footpad.
Quite simply, he’s not on my shortlist but good luck with him.
I’ve had Footpad and of the rest heading the market, North Hill Harvey looks value at 20s. In fact, he’s going in some each way multiples this week.
I haven’t ruled out River Wylde because he didn’t appear to appreciate the dead ground on the far side at Cheltenham last time out.
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