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Tizzard may have decided to declare FO so that he can take advantage of Puppy riding. Doesn’t appear to have a lot of confidence in Bryan Cooper.
Fair point. Cooper’s jacket looks to be on a shaky nail.
North Hill Harvey has been confirmed by trainer Skelton as very much an intended runner here whereas the Tizzards have said it’s highly likely Finian’s Oscar will miss this for Cheltenham. Brain Power is the early favourite at evens and he made a sparkling debut and goes very well at these right handed tracks. But it’s highly debatable that he’s a better chaser than North Hill Harvey even though he’s rated 15lbs better than the Skelton horse over hurdles. Even that rating difference is open to debate as Skelton has cursed himself for the way he handled the horse’s hurdling campaign.
North Hill Harvey is a fine jumper and the form of his races looks rock solid, He beat Sceau Royal getting 5lbs from that horse on North Hill Harvey’s debut. Sceau Royal won next time as did North Hill Harvey in a better race. The two chase wins have been at Cheltenham where he has a great record. One concern here is going right-handed; he’s tried it twice (both Huntingdon) without winning. Those were hurdle outings though and he has matured and has every chance of being just as effective this way round as going clockwise.
Can’t really add to that, Joe; says it all.
North Hill Harvey 7/1 each way.
Value Is EverythingGetting to the stage now where we must disregard anything any trainer says to be on the safe side. Wish I’d screencapped that quote from the other day. It was something like – “He won’t go to Sandown. It’s too hot a race by the look of the entries and he’ll wait for Cheltenham”
I’d be much less confident now about North Hill Harvey as I think Finian’s Oscar has one of the biggest engines you’ll see this season. He’s been careful at early fences in his previous races and he if he does the same at Sandown he might not get the rhythm he’ll need to go safely down the back.
But his jumping technique is pretty sound and he seems to be getting better with experience. A trouble free round will make him very hard to beat.
This was the Racing Post headline for the article Joe:-
Six of the best in Henry VIII but Finian’s Oscar bound for Cheltenham
The article went on to read:-
Joe Tizzard, son and assistant to trainer Colin Tizzard, said on Tuesday morning: “We felt we had to enter him as it’s a Grade 1 and the sort of race he should be in. There are only five against him, but it’s a great five so I think it would be more likely we go back to Cheltenham with him over two miles five on Saturday week.”
I had Finian’s Oscar ante post for Cheltenham last season but he missed the meeting. I got my money back at Aintree though.
Not sure Finian’s Oscar has been that impressive yet as a chaser but this is his chance to go pretty near the top of the tree. Ultimately it will be whether he has enough toe against the field who could be sharper.
I am hoping Brain Power has the pace to take them out of their comfort zone.
It’s a small field but it could be a watershed race if something can stamp their authority on the others.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The market is shaping for flip-flopping favourites here. Brain Power and Finian’s Oscar are getting ever closer, with Henderson’s horse out to 7/4 and Tizzard’s “doubtful” runner going under 2/1 now.
Interestingly North Hill Harvey does not make the 1-2-3 in the Timeform forecast, with them going Finian’s Oscar-Brain Power-Capitaine.
I may be missing something but I feel Capitaine has got plenty on here after winning two poor looking races.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hes been jocked and confirmed steve, hes definitely running unless they pull him for a problem
He will go off fav for certain id say
Finian’s Oscar ought to be fav in my view. North Hill Harvey looking pretty big now though and I might well have another wee bet on him. He’s a tough customer who’s been in a proper battle over fences and won it. That experience should stand him in very good stead.
Finians declared?? Wtf?
Tizz said he definitely wouldn’t run.
Wish I hadnt backed Capitaine now as this is now a strange market. Why on earth is Brain Power favourite ahead of Finians?
Adding to my Capitaine bet with Finians Oscar @ 15/8
Just five runners but an absolute cracker in prospect
Finian’s Oscar for me. I’d be less certain if Nico was riding Brain Power but he’s not so it’s an easier choice
I’ll go against the majority and say i’ll be shocked if Brain Power doesn’t win and quite cosily too, far too much pace for these boys i reckon and his jumping on his debut was exceptional for a horse 1st time out, had a few spectacular ones but was clever and nimble enough when not meeting on a perfect stride.
I think he’ll bowl along and the rest will be in trouble from a long way out with Finians plugging on when it’s all too late.
As for question marks over Davy instead of De Boinville, there should be none, this kid is the real deal
I am waiting to see if I can get any 2/1 Brain Power in the morning.
I always felt if Finian’s Oscar had a weakness it might be the 2M trip. I was concerned last year that they might stick him in the Supreme but in the end he missed the meeting.
I still can’t quite believe that he got beat at Punchestown. I thought he had them shot to bits, with the jockey on ultimate winner Bacardys going at it like Steve Redgrave on his honeymoon from a fair way out.
I will be pretty surprised if one of the first two in the market doesn’t win this one. They look a formidable tandem team to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am waiting to see if I can get any 2/1 Brain Power in the morning.
I always felt if Finian’s Oscar had a weakness it might be the 2M trip. I was concerned last year that they might stick him in the Supreme but in the end he missed the meeting.
I still can’t quite believe that he got beat at Punchestown. I thought he had them shot to bits, with the jockey on ultimate winner Bacardys going at it like Steve Redgrave on his honeymoon from a fair way out.
I will be pretty surprised if one of the first two in the market doesn’t win this one. They look a formidable tandem team to me.
Ive always had a slight worry 2m will find him out in the long run, hes a jlt horse, but he is a really top prospect so theres everychance he might just be to classy for this lot, he buried capitaine over 2m albeit hurdles…
Ill be stunned if brain power wins this, id have everyone bar capitaine over him, its likely ill be trying to place lay him if i can get a few takers at silly odds
Someones bubble will be burst tomorrow, what a race this really is.
Good luck with your selections
2 miles at Sandown on deadish ground in cold weather should be fine. Wind in their faces up the home straight…
I’d be a Brain Power supporter over 2 miles on fresh ground at Kempton but hopefully Finian’s Oscar makes it 2 from 2 at Sandown
Brain Power was impressive making all at Kempton on chasing debut. However, there’s a horse in here that probably needs to lead – Capitane – so the Henderson horse is unlikely to lead this time. So, will he jump as well in those circumstances? Was effective held up over hurdles and therefore probable. Perhaps the biggest worry is the going, although officially “good-soft” on Friday, looked to me softer than Brain Power has run on before. That said, he’s a worthy favourite.
Finians Oscar is desputing favouritism now. Potential to be as good as Brain Power had he remained hurdling and now as a chaser. Connections were debating after his latest start whether to go for the 2 1/2 mile Novice or step up to 3m RSA at the Cheltenham Festival. Ground conditions, headwind and the uphill finish today should place some emphasis on stamina. However, I personally have some doubts it’ll be enough and imo currently too short.
Capitane has appeared to need the lead over hurdles and – although probable – not absolutely sure to get it here. Needs to up his game, some way below top class as a hurdler and possibly best on a slightly firmer surface.
Sceau Royal and North Hill Harvey have already met in October, with North Hill Harvey coming out a neck in front. But that’s misleading form. Sceau Royal was giving 5 lbs and appears to come out the best horse. However, North Hill Harvey went on to win a “Grade 2” by 18 lengths. Although the only one to run to his best in that Cheltenham race, won as he liked and only 2.6 seconds slower than Fox Norton who carried just 1 lb more just half an hour later over the same trip. Hopefully is not a Cheltenham specialist, North Hill Harvey is proven on soft as well as good. Sceau Royal himself went on to win an ordinary Warwick two runner novice with ease. To me, Sceau Royal seems best suited by a test of speed and a slow pace (fast finish) appears unlikely.
At the moment Brain Power and Finians Oscar are better than the others, but North Hill Harvey in particular has the scope to improve over fences. With negatives about Capitane and Sceau Royal I have North Hill Harvey with a significantly better chance than those. I’ve backed him for this @ 7/1 each way and 16/1 for the Arkle.
My 100% Book:
38% Brain Power 13/8, 27% Finians Oscar 11/4, 18% North Hill Harvey 9/2, 8.5% Capitane 11/1, 8.5% Sceau Royal 11/1.Value Is EverythingYou’d have FO at 9/4? That’s bonkers imo. Huge.
I make him clear favourite at 11/8.
A combination of thinking Finians Oscar is underrated and that Brain Power is stupidly overhyped has me well involved at 15/8.
I’ll as always come back to the thread if I’m wrong and hold my hands up but Brain Power will not beat Finians Oscar in this race or at the festival.
Brain Power for me here at 13/8, just think the course/trip/ground is all in his favour and can out-speed the Oscar over the railways.
I took Brain Power at 13/8.
After the early money for Finian’s Oscar he is now out to 9/4 in places and no shorter than 2/1 anywhere.
North Hill Harvey is generally 6/1 and Sceau Royal 8/1.
Capitaine is the friendless one, out to 11/1 in places.
I wouldn’t say Finian’s Oscar is underrated. He just faces a task that does not play to his strength. Equally, Brain Power is not over-hyped. He was always doubted by fairly large numbers last season and that has carried on for now this season in some minds. He kept to good company late last year though and it was hard to be picky about the way he won last time. I think he could turn out to be the underrated one in a race that might draw up a pecking order with some clearly defined pecker sizes, if you get my drift.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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