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From my blog:
I think this horse has a fine chance of continuing his progress in his toughest test yet at Sandown on Saturday in the Henry VIII Novices Chase. There’s a strong entry quality-wise but, as is standard for the race, not many will go to post. Field sizes in the past five years:
4
6
4
6
5
North Hill Harvey has been confirmed by trainer Skelton as very much an intended runner here whereas the Tizzards have said it’s highly likely Finian’s Oscar will miss this for Cheltenham. Brain Power is the early favourite at evens and he made a sparkling debut and goes very well at these right handed tracks. But it’s highly debatable that he’s a better chaser than North Hill Harvey even though he’s rated 15lbs better than the Skelton horse over hurdles. Even that rating difference is open to debate as Skelton has cursed himself for the way he handled the horse’s hurdling campaign.
North Hill Harvey is a fine jumper and the form of his races looks rock solid, He beat Sceau Royal getting 5lbs from that horse on North Hill Harvey’s debut. Sceau Royal won next time as did North Hill Harvey in a better race. The two chase wins have been at Cheltenham where he has a great record. One concern here is going right-handed; he’s tried it twice (both Huntingdon) without winning. Those were hurdle outings though and he has matured and has every chance of being just as effective this way round as going clockwise.
Sceau Royal is entered here and he’ll be 5lbs better off. This is sure to give us a line into the improvement North Hill Harvey has made. 9/2 is too big and should be taken with Paddy Power; he’s as low as 3/1 with other bookmakers and that, in my opinion, illustrates more accurately his chance.
Great jump in class but i wouldn’t rule out Capitaine …..he’s a big price and already jocked up…so you’d imagine he shows up here, and has scope to go off shorter.
No doubt he has to find a lot on both hurdle and jumps form, but he strikes me as one that might well improve for fences long term.Nicholls has won 2 of the last 4 with them priced, 13/2 and 5/1….
On your selection, would going right handed concern you at all?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Brain power really annoyed me as a hurdler, i dont think he warrants the 160 mark given, have to take him on.
NHH has been excellent so far over fences, but i have enough concerns, id definitely have NHH over BP in this
But i think ill side with sceau royal at 5/1, was giving that 5lbs away to NHH whilst it was NHH first run hes usually a horse that goes well fresh, maybe even goes best FTO, and that weight allowance made all the difference
Capitaine not out of it either.
A really strong race on paper
Sceau royal 5/1
I’m with Jackh on this one- I really like Capitaine. He’s a nice shape for a chaser by a good sire and he learned a lot between first and second runs over fences (annoyingly small picture for latter race as he had to share a split screen with some Gosden juvenile nag lolloping around in a very short bumper). PFN thinks he’s better right handed and mentioned this race in the ATR stable tour back in October. Only small potential concern would be ground though the covers are down so that should help.
Also agree with ham- Brain Power probably not really 160 over hurdles (though is pocket talk from me as I believed the hype and backed him for the CH). Dunno why evens fave. Yes jumped well FTO…when getting it all his own way.
North Hill Harvey very nice horse too. A good race in prospect.
The price of NHH makes no sense considering the likely defection of Finian’s Oscar.
He’s a 6/4 shot on form.
I’ve backed Capitaine for this at 7/1. Finians Oscar is not gonna run, I think that NHH is best at Cheltenham. I don’t think Sceaux Royale is ultimately good enough and I think Brain Power is far far too short.
Capitaine @ 7/1
I backed Brain Power for next year’s Arkle chase. I lost money on him in last year’s Champion Hurdle, where he travelled well early but quickly petered out. He ran pretty well at Punchestown, not beaten that far in 5th.
I looked at the early markets for Cheltenham and thought 16/1 was worth a pop.
He’s only a youngster yet and his Champion Hurdle run had a look of too much, too soon about it to me.
I don’t see him as value for the race coming up but I have a feeling he will make a damn good chaser. I can see him being the new favourite for the Arkle and hopefully a boost to one of very few ante-post bets I will be having for Cheltenham.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, I saw some early 20s about BP in the Arkle and had it been at a right handed track I would have taken that price to a few quid. I did my dough on him at the festival. His only left handed runs have been 2 at Cheltenham and he was lacklustre in both.
I’d need to see some evidence he can run to form there, whereas North Hill Harvey loves the place. I hear Tizz is swithering now with Finian’s Oscar and the Arkle is just as likely as the JLT. I’d fear him an awful lot in the Arkle as I do Petit Mouchoir.
Another disillusioned Brain Power backer here. Also think left-handed tracks will be a problem for him.
Part of me hopes they send him to Warwick or Donny to answer the question pre-Cheltenham, though a bigger part of me wants him to hack up twice more right-handed and make the market for everything else on the day in March.
Steve, I saw some early 20s about BP in the Arkle and had it been at a right handed track I would have taken that price to a few quid. I did my dough on him at the festival. His only left handed runs have been 2 at Cheltenham and he was lacklustre in both.
I’d need to see some evidence he can run to form there, whereas North Hill Harvey loves the place. I hear Tizz is swithering now with Finian’s Oscar and the Arkle is just as likely as the JLT. I’d fear him an awful lot in the Arkle as I do Petit Mouchoir.
I just think he’s young enough yet to be categorised. Any good statistician will tell you that two runs are an insufficient sample to be making 100% decisions on. One of the races was a Champion Hurdle after all, and it’s not as if he was red hot favourite or anything.
16/1 shots always come with caveats, otherwise they wouldn’t be those odds in the first place.
North Hill Harvey was a decent hurdler but his chase wins don’t tell us much. His first race saw him getting 5 lbs from Sceau Royal and that horse is the only winner to come out of that race, and that was a 2 horse race where he was 1/16 Fav. The next win for North Hill Harvey was a canter in a three horse affair and a line through War Sound, subsequently thrashed by Brain Power, suggests suggests that Henderson’s other horse is some way in advance of River Wylde, who disappointed somewhat after early promise last season.
As the other man once said, the proof of the Pud will be in the pulling of it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nicky Henderson said after Brain Power’s chasing debut:-
“He’s very good and a huge talent,” said Henderson. “He’s grown up and we let him bowl along today – he will have learned a lot. The Arkle is the ultimate objective and we’ll more than likely go the Altior route.
“He was a genuine Champion Hurdle horse but David said fences are the making of him. He was listening to his rider today.”
Of course trainers sometime’s waffle on but they clearly feel he has potential. Maybe Nicky is also delusional. It’s certain that if he saw my ticket, he’d be a whole lot less confident.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve mentioned this before but Henderson once watched a novice chaser of his jump markedly out to the left at every fence during a race at Kempton. He declared afterwards that it would race left handed next time.
It’s next race was at Ascot where it finished last.
Even the best make very strange decisions
Finians declared for this, pretty shocked about that myself!
A bad antepost move in regards to anything thats not brainpower, not as happy with my sceau royal bet now… although i do think this trip will be on the short side for finians!
Getting to the stage now where we must disregard anything any trainer says to be on the safe side. Wish I’d screencapped that quote from the other day. It was something like – “He won’t go to Sandown. It’s too hot a race by the look of the entries and he’ll wait for Cheltenham”
I’d be much less confident now about North Hill Harvey as I think Finian’s Oscar has one of the biggest engines you’ll see this season. He’s been careful at early fences in his previous races and he if he does the same at Sandown he might not get the rhythm he’ll need to go safely down the back.
But his jumping technique is pretty sound and he seems to be getting better with experience. A trouble free round will make him very hard to beat.
Tizzard may have decided to declare FO so that he can take advantage of Puppy riding. Doesn’t appear to have a lot of confidence in Bryan Cooper.
Tizzard may have decided to declare FO so that he can take advantage of Puppy riding. Doesn’t appear to have a lot of confidence in Bryan Cooper.
I agree, this came to mind when i seen he was declared, unusual for a trainer to be so public about his talks with cooper
Getting to the stage now where we must disregard anything any trainer says to be on the safe side. Wish I’d screencapped that quote from the other day. It was something like – “He won’t go to Sandown. It’s too hot a race by the look of the entries and he’ll wait for Cheltenham”
I’d be much less confident now about North Hill Harvey as I think Finian’s Oscar has one of the biggest engines you’ll see this season. He’s been careful at early fences in his previous races and he if he does the same at Sandown he might not get the rhythm he’ll need to go safely down the back.
But his jumping technique is pretty sound and he seems to be getting better with experience. A trouble free round will make him very hard to beat.
Definitely agree in regards to my bet, finians could be something special, but i do think this may be on the short side for him, still the likely winner, im on the nose with sceau royal so ill jist enjoy the spectacle, this should be an excellent race
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