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Yes Brain Power will be hard to beat and may be my main bet, he will no doubt produce some breathtaking leaps at some of the railway fences, although i can also see him guessing at one or two
if there is an “underhyped” horse in this it’s surely the pocket battleship Sceau Royal, who has done precious little wrong and his athletic and nimble frame is made for this test
Love the horse, still think he has a great chance, ibjust wish i waited for the 8s rather than jumping on the 6s before FO was declared, 6th in the CH a distance clear of BP, of course the race didnt suit BP, if not for the weight allowance to NHH he would still be unbeaten over fences,he is definitely sliding under the radar here.
Like i said previously ill be stunned if BP wins this
Was going to add FO again as a saver but i changed my mind and added a little bit more Sceau royal 8s to go with my 6s from earlier
9/4 is my idea of Finians Oscar’s fair price, MOM. That means if I were a bookie – adding a mark up for an unexposed improving racehorse the price I’d offer would be 9/4. That’s not much better than the 2/1 currently available. If you make him 11/8 (42% chance) then if you were a bookie 6/5 (45%) would be your offer; massively different to the current 2/1 (33%). You might be right, but where has FO shown this speed you are certain he’s got?
Tolworth Hurdle victory at 2 miles was on softer ground/stiffer test than this is likely to be; drying up today and the headwind isn’t forcast to be strong… And these today are top class 2 milers he’s running against. There’s also no guarantee of a strongly run race to bring his stamina in to play. For me, although there’s a chance FO is fully effective at this 2m, the chance of him not being effective must be taken in to account in the price I’m willing to take.imo Punters often under-estimate what a horse achieves both under massive weights in top handicaps and when a close up 5th in a Grade 1. Brain Power won over hurdles off 11-11 (a mark of 149) by 5 lengths and only 3 1/4 lengths behind the winner in 5th at Punchestown. From what BP did on chasing debut I’d be surprised if he’s not just as good over fences – at least going right-handed.
Value Is Everything2.6 seconds = 13 lengths (or does it per the other thread?), Ginger. Every time I oppose Finian’s Oscar he wins! Nevertheless, I am in the Brain Power camp at today’s conditions.
(I should add that if Brain Power improves the average 10 on his hurdle form he will be virtually equal to Fox Norton, 13 better than North Hill Harvey.)
North Hill Harvey 7/1 each way.
I’ve put a saver on Brain Power @ 2/1.
Value Is EverythingLast time out when I backed Finians, my big worry was it turning into a bit of a sprint in the small field. That was the worry for me as he hadn’t yet proved that speed.
When Movewiththetimes (a horse I like as it goes) moved past him, I feared the worst. But suddenly, for the first time, we saw the horse show a genuinely impressive turn of foot and he quickened away.
We didn’t see that with him last season but he looks a stronger and more switched on horse in his races. Better as a chaser I believe.
For me, he goes to favouritism today for the Arkle/JLT depending on what is said afterwards from Tizzard. I’m on antepost for any race at Cheltenham and have got well involved today.
I really love the horse and think he deserves to be the outright favourite in my opinion.
Cracking fun though. Glad all horses+ jockeys OK. Well done Daryl Jacob and Sceau Royal.
Well what a lot of burst bubbles there.
Finian’s Oscar as slow as a boat. Brain Power tired as he had done in the Champion Hurdle. North Hill Harvey fenced well but was soon in trouble.
Finian’s Oscar must go up in trip, the Tizzards made a real arse of that placing today. Brain Power looks a horse with talent but he’s wayward in nature.
I never saw that coming from Sceau Royal, he’s always run poorly when I have backed him but he hosed up today.
One horse race. Well done if you got him.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
First and foremost, well done backers of the winner. Travelled like the best horse all the way round.
Secondly, I hold my hands up. I got that way wrong. Said very early on that Finians was being outpaced. Clearly, step him up in trip. JLT winner for me.
Brain power just wasn’t good enough on the day and was beat when unseating. Overhyped horse as I said.
All in all.. an interesting race for the Cheltenham markets.
Nice one, ham, well done. Big price in retrospect given his 5lb better off with North Hill Harvey.
Having said that, I suspect he was most advantaged by a canny ride off too hot a pace. Skelton got himself into a ‘who’s the better jumper’ battle with Mullins and they both paid the penalty. I’m convinced North Hill Harvey still has a huge chance in the Arkle with a more sensible ride and back left handed at a track he loves. His fencing will be a considerable asset.
Finian’s Oscar just beginning perhaps to look like a horse who must have everything go right for him in the early stages of a race. Could be a temperament issue though worth the benefit of the doubt for now that it’s a confidence thing.
Not writing off my North Hill Harvey Arkle bet yet. Capitane – as said – needs to lead and pulled his chance away even before falling. To my eyes the front two jockeys went far too fast mid-race and had nothing left for the finish. So who’s left to pick up the pieces? Sceau Royal. That said, it was a fast time in those conditions and probably would’ve won anyway, Sceau Royal is undoubtedly a top class novice and I’ve just tipped him up @ 10/1 for the Arkle. Had to take 8/1 myself.
Expected Finians Oscar to be outpaced, but the 1 1/2 mile pace exaggerated that.
Value Is EverythingForgot to add:
Well done ham and other Sceau Royal backers. I got him wrong.Value Is EverythingI got that way wrong. Said very early on that Finians was being outpaced. Clearly, step him up in trip. JLT winner for me. Brain power just wasn’t good enough on the day and was beat when unseating. Overhyped horse as I said.
not being funny, but how can you say after that race where at least brain power was completely competitive until the last and finian’s oscar was never in it, that brain power is overhyped while finian’s oscar is a cheltenham winner in waiting?
finian’s oscar won’t win any novice at the festival for me and I think the novice races are quite competitive this year.
typical that I put Brain Power and Sceaux Royal up before the race, had a bet on brain power and not a bean on the winner…
Cheers joe & ginge
not being funny, but how can you say after that race where at least brain power was completely competitive until the last and finian’s oscar was never in it, that brain power is overhyped while finian’s oscar is a cheltenham winner in waiting?
I think what hes meaning is finians was obviously ovet the wrong trip, rather than being found out, whereas brain poower arguably had everything in his favour and still beaten, i wouldnt write anything off in the race tbh, the formline from that race will prove to be quite strong
Tolworth Hurdle victory at 2 miles was on softer ground/stiffer test than this is likely to be; drying up today and the headwind isn’t forcast to be strong… And these today are top class 2 milers he’s running against. There’s also no guarantee of a strongly run race to bring his stamina in to play. For me, although there’s a chance FO is fully effective at this 2m, the chance of him not being effective must be taken in to account in the price I’m willing to take.
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