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I shall be making my way back to Essex tomorrow and so I doubt if any further comment will be made until Saturday and all I can do is cover the same rhetoric to refresh your memory.
K1 must I am sure be entitled “CAN THIS BE MADE INTO ANYTHING?”: – select top and/or joint rated Postmark when either of the previous two races were a winner. Kersley highlights 116 selections with 47 winners and a 37pt. profit at level stakes.
K2 Variant posted by yourself MrE proposes the use of RP online believing there are variations with the data.
Much of the copy is a complete mess/jumble which I wonder if you could shed light.
As best as I can make out Kersley points out if the Mail’s rating (Formcast) was to be used the problem he was encountering of joint ratings could be negated.
I like simple systems but have always encountered a baron period very similar to the present one you are experiencing when I either lose interest or as Purwell suggests I start to tinker and it all goes dreadfully wrong.
A lot of the archive systems are simple which may explain why I love to root around down there but as you say 14 years is a long while go and so it beggars the question how can it be updated.
I am being interrupted and will conclude later.
Billy's Outback Shack
Part 2.
Yesterday had more winners than losers using the Daily Mail (Formcast 78) top rated but 14 years ago there was speculation regarding if the use of filters as a way to reduce the number of selections.
The fewer the better suits me as my pocket money can only stretch so far but I did apply my most favourite current filter of dividing the number of declared runners (less one) by 4, which resulted in 2 winners from 3 selections.
The same application today still left 5 on which to play: –
Raise a Spark 2.00 Carlisle Won 85/40
Viola Park 2.10 Southwell Lost
SIR BILLY WRIGHT 3.55 Southwell (min 9/4) available 5/2
THE LOCK MASTER 5.35 Southwell (min 1/1) available 4/1
WAR DEPARTMENT 7.45 Newcastle (min 9/4) available 3/1
Others: –
Multiculture 3.30 Wincanton
Bounty Pursuit 3.20 Southwell
Present Times 4.20 Carlisle
Loch Ba 4.55 Carlisle
Dubai One 6.45 NewcastleMaybe the simple rules are good enough and there is no need to bring the process up to date.
Billy's Outback Shack
What a good job I did not have the time to post those pesky Formcast picks, the results were pretty poor.
Purwell gets the last laugh.
Billy's Outback Shack
Bugger!!!…. your bloody quick to wave the white flag Billy, I haven’t had time to have a look. From the little bit that I did see, I thought that you might be onto something and I will check it out as soon as I’ve got my own problematic systems sorted.
I had myself a quick furkle yesterday and came up with Rock on Rocky at odds of 5.50…. just need a bit of time Bill… oh!!!… and in passing, I thought that I’d mention that I like you in that frilly petticoat.MrE
MrE . . . .that is not a white flag but is the biggest “white” petticoat in Essex.
I cannot abide chucking my money down the drain but have not quite given up on the idea and Purwell might note I have just “tinkered” a little. Perhaps a lot actually.
The Mail’s Formcast 78 top rated having a win in the most recent two races and must be both the forecast fav. and the live fav. when placing the bet.
However I am still implementing the price guide of reducing the field number by one and dividing by 4 to find the acceptable minimum price. This simple price guide was intended for favourites only and so it makes a small amount of sense to follow the selection method when they are favourites.
We shall see?
4 have come to the fore today: –
Ayr
2.45 PISTOL PARK @ 11/10
3.20 Taking Risks @ 13/8
Wolv’s 5.00 Tartan Bute @ 7/2
Chelmsford 8.15 General Hazard @ 13/8 Billy's Outback Shack
This old idea just might have some legs in it Billy ‘Un….. Makes a modicum of sense in a roundabout sort of way… so, using the same format but a different racing journal, I give you these below just for interests sake. I have not had time to hone these and like the usual diamonds, they come to you unpolished….
2.10 Ayr… Progress Drive….
3.20 Ayr… Taking Risks….
4.10 Sand… The Fresh Prince….
5.10 Here… Lovenormoney….
7.15 Chelm… Shamrokh….
8.15 Chelm… General Hazard….MrE
Willie my little wombat…. further to your instructions, I have delved a bit deeper into the above and it appears to be a bit profitable so far after only 3 days. OK, it’s only 3 days, but definitely worth a second look and I would point you in the direction of the PLACE (in brackets)…. worth making a note of possibly…. this is what has transpired thus far….
Thursday…
Spirit of the Vale… 4.57…. (1.78)….
War Department… LOST…. (1.46)….Friday…
Rathlin Rose… 2.86… (1.43)….
Rock on Rocky… 5.50… (2.56)….Saturday…
The Fresh Prince… LOST…. (2.86)….
General Hazard… 2.96… (1.47)….MrE
Well done MrE with a winner and a second today (Saturday) while I landed 1.2.3.L
I reduced my selections down to just 4 with a little help from that man Fenman having once again referenced his system for Cheltenham. With my nose in his book I noted his 10 Tips For Happy Punter
Number 2: – “I seldom bet if the horse has not won its last outing” (quote).
And so my 4 all won LTO.
As said each were top rated with the D. Mail Formcast and were live market favourites at the time of bet placement.
None for Sunday as the ratings always takes the 7th day off.
The prices re: a place look very good, I assume them to be from Betfair? Most of my bets are at each way stakes which does not favour any weighting to the place and because you indicate the place price I can only assume a split as per 20% win and 80% place (or similar) being ideal for those staking a great deal more than myself which is below the Betfair minimum but does generally satisfy my personal need.
Billy's Outback Shack
Sunday….
I’m out until the evening, so I’ve selected ’em early…. and there is only the one for today…4.40 M/Ras… Milly Baloo…. LOST… (1.68)….
MrE
Without the Formcast rating I am speculating with the Sunday Express: –
Market Rasen 4.10 Forthefunofit Jt. in the forecast and fav. with the live market, acceptable odds = 5/4 and available at 5/2 WON
Market Rasen 4.40 Milly Baloo is favourite on both markets with acceptable odds at 7/4 is available at 4/1
Well MrE I hope Milly does us both a favour.
Billy's Outback Shack
Silly Milly, Billy…….
so sorry Bill, I couldn’t help it….. but it’s another place for yours truly….MrE
Evening young William, Billy for short… hey Bill, that could be your new handle, it slips nicely of the tongue doesn’t it… Mr Billy Foreshort… it’s got that certain ring, a bit like Quasimodo.
After your digging around in that hole that was dug 14 years ago, this little idea appears to hold water, it makes you wonder why we dropped it in the first place…. I’m wondering if me and Kers did one of our infamous “walkabouts”… whatever, I think you’ve got something that is a little bit tempting.
Whenever I look at systems, I have to see that they are logical and not some “Little Jack Horner” thing, this looks like it just might fit that bill (or Bill even). It might boil down to the racing journal that we use or the way we utilise the information contained therein… I like it that you have unearthed this one just in time for the start of the new flat season… hopefully we might be able to pull in enough pennies to pay for this paper of yours…. mmmm… I think I’m liking it…. and the racing too….MrE
Matron has been rather quiet of late, is it possible that Sister Cormack has caught him playing with his “toys”…. there was a time when you couldn’t get a word in edgeways, how times have changed. If your allowed visitors Matron, I’ll check up when the visiting times are… and I hope Sister Cormack has warned everybody not to feed you bananas through the wire mesh, it just looks too obvious, what with you being hairy and all that….
MrE
Correct MrE, I think Matron got caught playing with bill’s boomerang by Sister Cormack
it was all a bit confusing as bill said it wasn’t his as his ‘was’ red and not brown
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Hi Nate…. that must have been a bit of a conundrum… and Bill’s telling porkies…. I know that Bill’s is most definitely very Red, but only on the end…. he was caught polishing it quite vigorously and that’s really uncalled for, especially at his age….. it was noted that he was having trouble because it wouldn’t come back….
MrE
Bill’s boomerang wont come back..
Bill’s boomerang wont come back…
He can wave it about all over the place,
polish it until he’s blue in the face,
but he’s a big disgrace to the human race,
cuz his bommerang won’t come back.All together now…..
MrE
Sorry Billy my boy…. but I’m singing that and dancing around the bedroom…. it must be that little drink I’ve had….
Now now boys put your didgeridoos away and calm down and please stop blaming dear Matron for things that are not of her doing.
I am having to open a spread sheet and start checking this idea.
Perhaps we can find the best rating, Kersley suggested RP Postmark and the Mail’s Formcast as an alternative.
My paper scraps show 8 selections via the Mail with 3 wins at 9/4, 1/1, 7/4 There were places but were very short at 5/4, 9/4, ?, plus an unplayed odds on winner.
Today via the Express, Forthefunofit won at 5/2 and then Millie was 3rd.
That is all the info I have and if it is of help, so be it.
Billy's Outback Shack
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